Annual press conference of Prime Minister was held with no particular innovations: the well-fed audience, including a loyal and well-fed as the power elite of journalists, spoke on the topic, which, if they concerned a third of the population, that’s good. That the questions were agreed in advance and rehearsed, no doubt.
Prime and easily quoted the classics on the subject, and operates with statistical data, although in ordinary life, particularly Outlook does not Shine. So, remember the main thing that was said.
The Prime Minister said that “overall, our economy, social sphere this year have lived a completely normal, stable”. That is, for a country with great potential resources, historically high growth rates, past of the country-the world leader of growth on the level of statistical error (or more precisely statprobe) completely normal? Stable social sphere, if she has not fully recovered from the pension reform, as it has prepared surprises in the field of taxation — ecological and tourist taxes.
The Prime Minister said that “the well-known decree of the President and in accordance with national goals, we must grow as the growing world economy — around 3% a year.”
But for a moment, first, very strange to bind the target parameters in the symbol, in this case global growth. Because the parameter estimates. It’s what comes out that in the beginning the government were equal to the growth rate of 3.8% that was the forecast growth in the world economy, and in the end began to rely on 3% as the forecast was downgraded. It turns out that growth is not a planned figure, and random. Nobody puts a specific target, all rely on random just a number. Secondly, the President in his decree wasn’t talking about the growth of the world economy, and has set the goal of “ensuring economic growth above the world while maintaining macroeconomic stability.”
It turns out that the Prime Minister is not aware of what tasks does the President. What kind of development can be discussed, when the level of the Executive there is no idea of the challenges facing it. Thirdly, regarding achievable rates on the level of the world. After stagnation and crisis, which began in 2013, Russia has not found a new growth factors, the model still relies on hydrocarbon resources, while there is degradation of most industries, the deterioration in the labour market, the suppression of entrepreneurial activity, growth of insolvency of the population and so on. In such circumstances, if a miracle happens and the economy will grow at least at the level above 2%, it will be either due to the change of the economic model (which is almost impossible), or thanks to the skillful actions of Rosstat, which generally this year is not bad coped with its functionality, drawing positive figures for growth in real incomes, industrial production and so on.
The Prime Minister spoke about inflation at 3.8%. As you know, this option only one-third consists of products of daily use, the other components are almost not used in everyday life. And given the obsession of our leadership on this indicator and the desire to report on the achievement of target setting, it is not necessary to wonder why citizens evaluate the price increase differently. Abstractly enough the Prime Minister talked about the mortgage: “a mortgage. An even more important tool, the ability to solve the housing problem. Naturally, it is also associated with inflation and the key interest rate, so this figure we can not but rejoice”. I don’t know what the Prime Minister is happy, but the Russians clearly not amused. In the fall of 2018 Sberbank and behind him, other banks raised the rate to 9.5%, and in January 2019 to 10.8–11%. That is, any decrease in mortgages this year — it’s just a return to the more recent level of the rate.
Another mythical figure, no less rigged than the rate of inflation is unemployment. It is the Prime Minister’s statement amounted to “about 5%, and this year will be even lower, somewhere between 4.6–4.7% of the economically active population”. Moreover, it turns out in Europe this indicator above — “you look at the leading, largest economy, to understand what the unemployment numbers there is an average of 8-10%.” It is not surprising. There when placing it on the labour exchange, and according to this indicator assesses the level of unemployment, receive a significant benefit (50% of salary), and in Russia it is only 1500-8000 rubles, or about 100 euros in the best case, and not every person from the provinces will be able to stand on the labour exchange, and often no desire. Low figure for unemployment is only incomplete information about the real situation in the labour market. Yes, and with regard to Russia should evaluate not only the level of unemployment, but the market for jobs, wages which do not meet even the basic needs of the worker.
The Prime Minister touched on the topic of the budget, after boasting this way that “we now have a budget surplus, and we assume that this surplus will be about 1.8% of GDP. This is also a very decent margin of safety that allows us to look with confidence to the future.”
But there is little to be proud of it. As the saying goes, not afraid of high costs, and little revenues. Our government continues to fear of high costs, preferring as usual to put mythical money-box, and substantially in securities of foreign countries. This year, budget revenues increased by a 4.766 trillion. rubles, and expenditures at $ 1.5 trillion. That is, the surplus is a result of saving needs of the population, the containment policy of economic growth through the withdrawal of money from circulation. And this is confirmed by the low level of development of funds for national projects — the level of expenditure on national projects was even lower than the level of execution of expenditures of the Federal budget.
The Prime Minister is not particularly troubled by the fact that there are projects, but they are not implemented as executors are in no hurry to part with their money. What is most interesting, the money is not personal, and the state, but “Federal agencies feared them first to let go”, and then and their regions to hold back, as it was not spelled out the procedure for their spending. For the Prime Minister is absolutely normal that during the term of the implementation of national projects until 2024 for 2 years not even developed a clear mechanism for funding, what to say about the projects. At that rate, to talk about the performance of their in time is not necessary. The President should have to endure a reprimand and to dismiss the Cabinet under article negligence in the implementation of presidential instructions. But for the leader of the country, there is nothing wrong in this situation, because still by the end of the period the government will report on paper srednekraevyh execution of these projects.
And finally, a message for the ordinary citizen was that incomes of Russians grow, the trend has changed. Let me remind you that the real incomes fall 2014. Over the years, they fell by almost 10%. These figures nor the Prime Minister nor the President are voiced from high tribunes, because they do not need to spoil the image. Meanwhile, it is doubtful that expected real income growth in 0,2–0,3% true, because we remember that recently Rosstat has taken the initiative to change the method of calculation, and reported revenue growth in September after requesting the President to change the situation with the real income of the population.
And surprisingly, the country’s GDP is supposedly growing, and real incomes continue to fall. However, the measures suggested the Prime Minister, to once again prove that the government will not change anything. Instead of reviving the economy and creating conditions for development, the emphasis is on support for the most vulnerable segments of the population. Of course, social function has not been canceled. But, first, Russian social support has such ridiculous volumes that the life of the people as a whole does not change. Secondly, it is much easier to allocate funds to individual persons than to create conditions for all to the labour market and high salaries, high renewal of fixed assets, the dominance of technologically advanced industries in the structure of gross production.
How the Prime Minister is facing the task of execution of the decree of the President, Medvedev had to talk not about selective numbers. His speech would sound different, because the evaluation is primarily to assess the quality of execution of presidential decrees. So would have to tell Medvedev? Something like: “unfortunately, to ensure the natural population growth this year we failed. For the first 9 months the decline amounted to EUR 236.9 thousand people. Moreover, with all responsibility I can tell you that the natural growth is not, the country has returned to its long-term trend of extinction. And it is also the result of our work.
Sustained growth of real incomes, we also failed to achieve. Almost all the time, revenues fell, only to the end of the year, Rosstat began to consider “right” and we got an increase of almost zero. Recall that in January—August, the decline in real income amounted to 1.3%, and 9 months, we got an increase of 0.2%.
Technological development this year, we are also not accelerated. On the contrary, stirred up the leading market leader — Yandex, having considered the bill important information resources, which led to the collapse of its shares.
Closer to the goal to enter the five largest economies in the world and provide the economic growth rate above the world we also are unable. Our growth was at the level below the world — 1.3% in best case is 3%, so at this rate us no chance to achieve this goal. We are now at 12-13 place and at the current pace of growth we should not expect position changes (Fig. 1). On the contrary, if the rate remained at the same level in 2018, Russia would have gone down in 14th place, however, in 2019, the rate of GDP growth was even worse. That is, by 2024 Russia is at best able to survive in the list of 15 States, not five.
Fig. 1. The growth rate of GDP, 2018
That’s all, with the tasks we can’t handle, but thank you dear citizens for your patience, patience and again patience and ability to “stay here”.
I guess it would look like the economic speech of the Prime Minister, if he decided to speak without embellishment. But the language politicians are given to them skillfully to neutralize the mistakes of their activities and cover their tracks.
Certainly the economic section was not the only one at the press conference. It was still a lot of questions, including personal ones. But I think one question that hangs long in Russian society, still can not be announced. And for good reason.
So I asked the Prime Minister? “Dmitry Anatolyevich Russian people do not approve of Your activities, you act against 62%, negatively assesses the performance of your Cabinet is 55%. As if such clearly speaking the numbers you are not ashamed still to take the post of the second person of the state? There is a feeling that your resignation requires people?”
But perhaps hopelessly resigned from the concepts of the Russian elite honor, dignity. Do not be ashamed to take someone else’s place, not ashamed to work in a slipshod manner, not ashamed to let the country down.
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