“Nuclear goat”, shown to the West, the Russian population may have liked it, but the prospect of being in Paradise people are not inspired.
The publication of the results of the survey “Levada-center” about the main fears of Russians have reacted not only in media but also in the Kremlin. Press Secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin pay attention to these opinion polls, hinting the questions to their methodology.
As for me, so the methodology of this survey no major complaints, but his “in-depth analysis with a deeper differentiation”, in the words of the same Peskov, really needed. Because of the President’s administration to conduct such analysis is not planned, try to do it yourself.
The survey was conducted in late September — early October. Respondents were 1601 people aged 18 years and older in 137 localities, 50 subjects of the Russian Federation, by personal interview the Respondent at home.
Sociologists asked Russians to rate their fears on a scale where “1” means “absolutely not afraid”, and “5” — “feel the fear”. A similar survey of “Levada-center” spends annually a quarter of a century, so that visitors can compare what fears prevailed in different years.
Just note that over the past 25 years the dominant almost always was fear “illness of loved ones, children,” which, in General, of course. Overall rating of this fear is 4.2, and it is on the primary, indicated 61% of Russians. But in second place are just three of fear with the same rating of 3.4. People are afraid of world war, the arbitrariness of the authorities and disease (apparently private).
“Experiencing the constant fear of” world war 42% of respondents. And those who chose the option “absolutely not afraid” here is almost twice less — 22%. Not even a very deep analysis shows that the jump of fear about the possibility of a global armed conflict has occurred over the last two years. From 2003 to 2017, inclusive, the fear of world war I experienced from 19% to 27% of Russians, while in 2018 this number rose to 46%.
It is obvious that such a surge of terror before the impending world (and as many believe, the almost inevitable nuclear) disaster is caused by, on the one hand, the refusal of Russia and the United States from extending some of the key treaties in the field of international security. In particular, from the Treaty eliminating intermediate-and shorter-range missiles (INF Treaty).
Not last role in growth of the level of fear of the Russians on this issue was played by the threat of Vladimir Putin’s American adversaries, made in October 2018 at the meeting of the Valdai club: “…the aggressor still needs to know that retribution is inevitable that he will be destroyed. And we are the victims of aggression, and we, as martyrs go to Paradise, and they just die.” It was after this statement, Putin was more than twofold increase in the fear of the Russians before world war II: from 21% in 2017 to 46% in 2018. As you can see, in 2019, the level of this fear is almost unchanged (42%).
That is, the “nuclear goat”, shown to the West Putin at the Valdai club, the Russian population may have liked, but for the most part the prospect of being in Paradise it was not inspired. That’s how people are, including, and in mother Russia (as Putin has not amused himself with the statements that “there is such a predisposition of citizens to give his life for the Fatherland”). Not much stuff with their Patriotic propaganda, most of them want to live longer and the light is not exactly in a hurry. But the fear of being burned up in a nuclear war, we see the results of the survey “Levada-center”, such statements, on the contrary, increase.
No less important is another fear of the Russians, they have the same rating as the fear of world war. 33% of respondents experiencing “constant fear” of lawlessness and arbitrariness of the authorities. A year ago, this item was also in third place after fears for the health of children and fear of world war, and the fear of the arbitrariness of the authorities was even higher than it is now — then it said 38% of respondents.
It is characteristic that this figure, as well as the fear of world war, in the last two years made an impressive, almost a fourfold leap. During the infamous “Crimean consensus” it ranged from 15% (2014) to 10% (2017). This does not mean that before such a level of fear of the tyranny of his native state from its citizens has never been. In 1999, about him said and did 36% of respondents. Just decline up to 10% -15% in 2014-2017 — an indication that the enthusiasm of the masses, for the accession of new territories and successful use of force in the international arena native government usually pushes the fear of the arbitrariness of the state in relation to him somewhere deep.
But being, in the end, anyway begins to define consciousness. Understanding that the arbitrariness in relation to citizens is not only not disappeared, but intensified, and the appearance of victory in a practical sense did not give them anything and even the opposite — to live, contrary to expectations, it was even worse, returns the old fears of people before the authorities in its place.
We must assume that the sequence of events that led for the last two years to a sharp increase in fear of tyranny (and, hence, to the distrust of the government) in General is. For the newly annexed (Crimea) and controlled areas (DNI/LC, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Syria) you have to pay. Under conditions of relatively low oil prices and international sanctions, this fee in the form of inflation and the actual freezing of salaries, pensions and benefits, is vested in the people, who for the last five years has become worse than before.
The discontent of the people in the most developed regions (especially, Moscow) was reflected in the mass protests, which had formally purely political reasons, as it was in the summer of 2019, when tens of thousands of people in the midst of the holiday season took to the streets of the capital with the requirement to register candidates from non-system opposition.
Implicitly, these protests have accumulated a total people’s dissatisfaction with the deterioration of their socio-economic status. The power of these protests responded as usual — arbitrariness and repression against the protesters.
However, it is not only political or socio-economic issues. Return attention of Russians to their internal problems inevitably faced them nose to nose with his own authority and specific methods of communication with people. They again saw the phenomenon, which Engels described more than a hundred years ago: “the Official gives his private interest for the public”.
In this sense, I think, a very revealing incident that occurred at the beginning of 2019 in the suburban Mytischi. Here a dozen police officers in one very fine morning broke into the apartment Inessa Kuznetsova and by force took away four of her children. Inessa and her mother — perfectly normal people, not alcoholics and not addicts. Lived a wealthy life, but children fed, clothed and educated no worse than other Russian families. Not to be beaten and mistreated, which upset the police, rushed to their house (look for bruises in children, but not found) and “sewing” now Inessa Kuznetsova retroactively a criminal case under article “improper care” for children.
Kuznetsov family to get children can’t. Inessa, who grew up in this city and in this house, studied at a local school, raised her children in the apartment, we can say, in the eyes of neighbors who know her since childhood, now has to prove that she is the mother. The neighbors, in front of which was done and is done all this outrage, to take children to the garden and to relatives far away. Everyone understands that they may be the same — at any time on a whim to your house can break the authorities without any legitimate reason to take away the most precious — children. And then go to classrooms, to prove that you not a camel.
By the way, all who know the family Kuznetsova, at first puzzled — why is she suddenly became the object of attacks of such number of representatives of the authorities. There were a variety of assumptions until the chilling — removal of children’s organs. However, Inessa expressed, I think, the simplest and probably the closest to reality version. On the floor below her apartment lives the kind of high police rank in retirement. Previously, he was repeatedly brought up to them, scandal — children (four kids, three of whom — Malicki) make noise, run, jump… In General, prevented him. It is possible that he decided that his personal problem with noise from above with the use of the usual levers of power.
And so the state machine, in the face of local police custody, the juvenile quickly turned her (including connecting for this and their information resources — TV-channels) in socially valuable…
In General, the classics — “the official gives his private interest for the public”. Such conflicts common in countries where power is everything and the people nothing.
I will repeat again. People realize that at any moment can be a victim of arbitrariness of the authorities. Not so important, for what reasons they might stand in the way of a particular representative of the authorities. People know that in this case nobody will not protect them — the power in our society is always right.
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