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Pashinyan leads Armenia to the West in defiance of Russia

Пашинян уводит Армению на Запад наперекор России

Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinian on 8 September at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed to the principle of non-interference in the internal Affairs of neighboring countries. He expressed the hope that relations between Yerevan and Moscow in the future will also line up with the interests of each other.

“In spite of a certain pessimism that is now present in both Armenian and Russian media and social networks, I think that our relations are developing very dynamically, very natural. I think the main problem is — we must try to unleash the full potential of our relations,” said Pashinyan. According to the Prime Minister, relations between the two countries “no unsolvable problems”.

Earlier, the Kremlin announced a “serious conversation”, which was planned to affect the prosecution of former heads of Armenia and the situation around the organization of collective security Treaty (CSTO).

In turn, the Russian President said that the relations of Armenia and Russia are developing steadily in all areas:

“This applies to the fields of political relations, the military, security issues, economic cooperation… Ready to compare notes about our current interaction and in the long term,” said Putin, stressing Russia’s leadership in the investment field of Armenia.

He noted the energy cooperation, noting the low prices of Russian gas supplies to Armenia — $ 150 per thousand cubic meters, also mentioning the nuclear and thermal energy.

“Development of relationships and in the metallurgical industry and mechanical engineering. In General, we have much to discuss,” — said Putin, noting the increase in turnover in the past year by almost 30% and expressing hope that the excess of the index at the end of this year.

However, a seemingly picture masked serious contradictions, which said the two leaders behind closed doors. Will it be possible to overcome these contradictions?

— Armenia, like our other closest allies, recently acting rather evasive — says Dean of the faculty “Sociology and political science” Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation Alexander Shatilov. — Trying to please and our, and your. This is due to two reasons.

On the one hand, Russia was under severe Western pressure and some of our allies are trying to insure, just in case send signals to the West that they don’t mind to be friends with him, even in defiance of Russia. In the development of relations with Russia has taken a tacit pause. This partly applies to Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

Armenia’s situation is even more complicated, because at the time Russia paid not enough attention to the Armenian direction. In recent years, we conduct a rather strange policy in the post-Soviet space. On the one hand, give some economic preferences in the form of the same discounts on gas. On the other hand, not clearly emphasizing their requirements, not say the same to Armenia what we want in exchange for economic bonuses. All this is reminiscent of the Ukrainian version when all connections are closed on the elite and the people, no one works, and public opinion gradually inclined not in favor of Russia.

“SP”: — Pashinyan, who came to power, in fact, in the Wake of relaxed version of a color revolution, the configured anti-Russian?

— The whole background in addition to says that this is the man of the West. For him, apparently, are powerful forces, in particular Armenia’s first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who is a longtime supporter of rapprochement with the United States and are American Armenian Diaspora, which, unlike the Russian Diaspora, ready to tear Armenia from Russia, fulfilling the will of “Washington regional Committee”.

I don’t know how the announced serious conversation in Moscow will affect Pashinian. Because on the other hand, he has a serious cover-up.

And while Russia will not show its allies and the world its strength, is unlikely to expect that Armenia would be very interested in the rapprochement with our country.

Russia is now gradually minimizes economic bonuses to the neighbors. It may be worth doing, but we had to start much earlier. On the other hand, in the political aspect lurks this position: well, go into the West, and that’s okay. But it is fundamentally wrong. Since we are so taxed are not the most friendly-minded neighbors, how many times has happened in our history, and therefore the allies to throw not worth it. The West is not the first time he took possession of the countries that were in the priority zone of influence of Russia, and we pretend that nothing is happening.

“SP”: — How can Russia demonstrate the power that Armenia had not looked askance to the West?

— Russia should act in General in foreign policy, especially when it comes to its direct interests in the post-Soviet space. Regarding Armenia it is also necessary to work with society, as in this country public opinion has a great impact on politicians. We can influence the Armenians through the Armenian Diaspora in Russia. In addition, we do not use much potential of the Nagorno-Karabakh clan, which in the circumstances is configured Pro-Russian. Meanwhile, it is the people of this Republic, like the natives of her fear that Pashinyan as a result of agreements with the West can take either Karabakh or its part. Are very interested in this USA, because this way they have strengthened the position on the border with Iran.

Before Pashinyan should also be given to the questions of an economic nature.

Another thing is that at this stage any of our economic sanctions in the post-Soviet space would be partially offset by countermeasures from the West. It is not so difficult to gradually feed the same Ukraine at the level that it finally collapsed economically. However, neither the West nor the post-Soviet countries don’t care what the standard of living of the ordinary population is dropping and more and more people are living on the verge or even below the poverty line.

“SP”: — You mentioned that Pashinyan may give Nagorno-Karabakh or its part. However, this is immediately cause public unrest in Armenia, is such a scenario realistic?

— Now the Armenian society is split roughly in half. In exchange for the promise of a beautiful life, many may agree with some forms of “integration” of Karabakh to Azerbaijan. You have to understand that the population of Armenia lives a wealthy life, and even frankly poor, and for a long time. Problems of socio-economic problems are not solved for many years, despite support from Russia. And if tomorrow Armenians will promise a “Marshall plan” in Armenia, no one knows how to react to the Armenian society, especially given that many decide it is the capital city residents.

“SP”: — the Example of Georgia, which is turned toward the West, but to live it became better not, learned nothing of the Armenians?

Unfortunately, historical examples are few who teach. The most striking example is Ukraine. But, nevertheless, every nation thinks they have it, and we will have a very different, much better.

Of course, Pashinyan could not act radically, to take and to quarrel with Russia. So it will gradually undermine relations with our country, based on its populist while the high rating and the support of the United States. While Russia strongly in terms of foreign policy is tied to Ukraine and Syria. And if we fail in the coming years is to focus Transcaucasian direction, I would not be surprised that in five years Pashinyan seriously put the question of withdrawal of Armenia from the Eurasian Union.

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