Nobles brow beat the alarm
Elite seriously scared of the unknown and now, on behalf of the “common people” asking Putin not to abandon them and not to go anywhere.
Our nobles excited, brow beat — don’t walk away, the king-father! But of course, modern, polittechnological. By wallowing in the legs worthless, after all XXI century outside the window, so spend focus groups with the slaves. The ones about the care of the king, of course, is also worried. There is no options.
This (at least for me) conclusion from the report published by the Center for political conjuncture Alexei Chesnakov, a former member of the presidential administration of the Russian Federation, the former Deputy Secretary of the General Council “United Russia”, a political analyst, a political strategist and a staunch supporter of Vladimir Putin.
At the beginning of the report. “Basic” study has seven pages with small. For a petition, even in the form of a report, is sufficient. It is composed, as reported in the preamble, based on four focus groups conducted in four cities — Moscow, Perm, Volgograd, and Irkutsk in one day — January 29, 2020. That’s all we know about his methodology. Social, gender composition of participants in these focus groups behind the scenes. Meanwhile, this is important, because one thing is when you poll small businesses, another when working. And certainly the third, when your mysterious focus group represented by staff of the local administration and members of the ruling party…
In General, I must say that there was nothing against the focus groups have not. He carried them out. If you treat this matter in good faith may be normal in qualitative research. But for the uninitiated it is necessary to explain something. A focus group is a few people, collect a sample. What is the sample was in this case — the murky mystery.
Before moving on to the actual report, I will quote the place from the preamble, from which in General it becomes clear why this study was decided to be held just two weeks immediately after the “landmark” of Putin’s message of 15 January this year.
“Public opinion polls show that more than half of all participants in the focus groups believe that in connection with the care of Vladimir Putin the situation in the country deteriorates, while less than a quarter of respondents believe that the departure of Putin will not affect the situation in the country, and only one in ten are of the opinion that the situation will improve”.
Suppose that the analyst Chesnakov knows that public opinion polls (mass studies) and focus groups (qualitative research) this is not the same, and, therefore, synonyms of each other can not be. So here the question either to the style or content of the report. That is, researchers, or bad presentation of his ideas, or with knowledge of the methods of social science.
The phrase “public opinion Polls show that more than half of all participants in the focus groups believe…” — or the inability to Express your own thoughts, or deliberate substitution of concepts that from the point of view of social science, to put it mildly, incorrect.
Another quote: “To understand what risks/fears present in the minds of citizens of Russia in connection with the possible departure of Putin from the presidency and from politics in General, the political conjuncture Center conducted a study based on four focus groups…”
In the mass consciousness of Russian citizens, like citizens of other countries, there are “fears”, which can be assessed with the tools of modern sociology. But the risks estimated by experts-sociologists and political scientists. However, again, it’s nitpicking to the style of presentation, which, however, as noted, can speak about the quality of the content.
Now to the content of the report.
“Despite the dominance in the information agenda of interpretations about what Vladimir Putin will remain in power after 2024, the President has given some signals that have been interpreted in such a way that he has no plans to remain President forever (underlined by me — A. Z.), and that the proposed amendments to the Constitution is not intended to extend the current term of office”.
These “few signs” of Vladimir Putin, just excited elite the most and prompted some of its members to brow beat and at the same time the alarm. Only on behalf of the people.
The “main findings” of this deep research, we find immediately on the second page. They are unambiguous: “the Main conclusion that can be drawn based on the analysis of the focus groups, the risks/fears associated with the likely departure of Putin from the presidency, relevant and clearly expressed in the minds of Russians. The fears are reinforced by the assumption that the incumbent President can not only leave office but to retire from politics. The participants in the focus groups share the opinion that the changes that will result in this event may be negative and pervasive, affecting the lives of every citizen.”
In General, “don’t go, stay with me…”
Risks/fears about the possible departure of Putin from power, the researchers divided the most expressed, medium expressed and peripheral.
The most pronounced, they claim, are the risks/fears of “a dramatic struggle for power in the country and the redistribution of property, the loss of Russia’s prestige in the world, the loss of continuity of power, reducing the social obligations of the state and the abolition of national projects”.
So what people are saying, or hiding behind a screen with the same name nobles?
According to the study, “people” is most excited about the fact that as a result of the possible departure of Putin will intensify the struggle for power and property: “the Country rests on the individual, the country established a mess, mess”, “Putin has shown himself to be the guarantor of stability, who knows what will happen when he will go”; the expectation of escalation of the struggle of elites in the case of care of the incumbent (“the Struggle between “the Kremlin towers” different agencies”); the idea that big business wants to implement its interests in the midst of change (“by Itself… a bone this gets, dogs will fight for it among themselves,” “From all the officials will change all the seats will change.” “Zyuganov, Zhirinovsky, Yavlinsky, will be a lot of small” United Russia, the ruling party will fall apart, and all come in a big chunk of change to grab, to share, to biting will be”, “the Bickering begin”.
“People” is worried that if Putin goes, the war starts with the evil abroad that now it’s afraid, it means respect. Because Putin, as everyone knows, the most peaceful person in the world, “tries to solve everything peacefully. Another in his place, the war would start.”
Let’s ask ourselves: could people speak something similar to focus groups? Why not, he could, of course. How many people, so many opinions. Another thing is that such fears are a reflection of the propaganda, those plants that feed citizens national television, these power transmission belts of the ruling class. Power through them and forms these fears in the public mind.
Significantly, in this study what we have before us is a new version of the petitions to the Russian Tsar from the boyar. Now they are lying at his feet on behalf of the people, a voice which, as we know, the voice of God.
The only thing that is not clear yet (probably this will be known to a generation of our children and grandchildren, who will someday raise the relevant archives of the presidential administration) is, who initiated this “voice of God” — the king (that in Russian history has happened under Ivan the terrible, who also “went” to go “at the request” of the people), or his boyars, security officials, senior officials, senators and deputies affiliated with the Kremlin spin doctors?
Probably all of them are now really scary. Because Putin is a real guarantor of the well — being of themselves, their children and grandchildren. The so-called “elite” now, in General, and generally happy — they are in the money, in power, in fame, the hall and bliss. They want it lasted and lasted, if not forever, then for as long as possible. Therefore, the reshaping of power structures, started by Putin, I believe, for the legitimate extension of his stay on mount Olympus (another 15-20 years, but we’ll see), they are very exciting. They, in this case, argue as well-known Chekhov’s character: “what if something happens.”
Reasons for concern the Royal servants adds and the fact that details high concept, they don’t know yet. For now there is only a set of statements of the leader — something very specific and something very vague. For example, Putin says he will not go for the next presidential term. But the presidency at the same time, as envisaged in the draft amendments to the Constitution, still remains and even with almost the same powers as before. Servants this uncertainty really bothers.
The “elite”, of course, aware that preparing a separate law on the state Council, which is going to make a constitutional body and give extensive powers, but who knows? Why create such a complex design? What if the new President will take, and start a new adjustment, not whether it is the night to remember? It is clear that Putin is at the head of the state Council will be vigilant, but you never know?
These worries of the nobles in the study also say the representatives of “the people”: “The new man may be another position, I will begin with his “bell bend” and has its own laws to enter,” “he will be your plans, everything will be different”, “the Course of Putin will not continue”.
However, it is possible that Putin himself is also not completely defined. After all, how hard any autocrat nor would hold in his hands the scepter of power, but from the opinion of their “elite” he can’t be absolutely free. It is always so. King creates a retinue, and the retinue makes the king. Without each other they will.
Thus in our particular situation? Until we see that Putin launched trial balloons and take them for a ride with his boyars. Those frightened, first, because of the conservative in every sense and don’t want any change, secondly, because even hint at the possibility that Putin’s successor as President, suddenly “buck”. In addition, they are at a loss because they do not know all the details of the highest design.
Putin is now considering two main options for your “transit.” Probably a month ago, he decided that the option of the state Council looking for new President and for all the rest of the country, optimal. In this case, he is leading this body, once again “do not violate the Constitution,” in the presidential election of 2024 will not participate, but the real power is not going anywhere.
However, loyalty to the panic of the nobility touched his sensitive soul and the option of a new six-year presidential term after 2024 also already seems to him quite reasonable. Indeed, the Basic law after the adoption of the amendments will be so different that if you want you can with pure heart say that it is “almost new” Constitution. The consecration of her “popular vote” gives the current head of the Kremlin and its loyal “elites” the opportunity to explain to the people the legitimacy of the new cadences of Putin.
One can be sure of: Putin — forever. In any case, as long as able to firmly hold the reins in his hands. Naturally, by the will of the people, and not for personal gain.
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