New US sanctions the withdrawal of the confrontation between Russia and the West to another level.
For Russia the question of whether “our” President of the United States Donald trump or “our”, finally ceased to be relevant 13 June 2017. On this day, the United States Senate, ninety seven votes to two, voted for the new package of sanctions against the Russian leadership and its associated oligarchs, as well as a number of sectors of the Russian economy.
Russian journalist Konstantin Eggert in an article for DW noted that the new US sanctions the withdrawal of the confrontation between Russia and the West on another level.
A blow to Gazprom and the oligarchs
In this situation forces in the House of representatives of the U.S. Congress will be difficult to substantially change the amendment, and the President is to veto them. Because it is likely to be overcome without problems by the same Senate. To permanently secure amendments from any changes, senators “clipped” them to the law on sanctions against Iran.
The new bill, if adopted in its current form, makes the whole set of sanctions imposed by the Obama administration, the Federal law. To review or cancel, the President will need the senators to justify such a step. In addition, sanctions are imposed against companies and individuals willing to invest in pipeline projects with Russia’s participation. Given the lack of own funds “Gazprom” and the need to attract foreign investors, this point – blow on such projects as Nord Stream-2, the “Turkish stream and Power of Siberia”.
Under the sanctions regime gets a number of previously not affected by the restrictions industries, for example shipbuilding, railway and mining. Those wishing to participate in the privatization of Russian state assets will need to prove that the ultimate beneficiaries of the process will not be individuals and companies with regard to actions against Ukraine, violations of human rights, the war in Syria and intervention in U.S. elections. It is, to put it mildly, not easy. The U.S. Treasury Department proposed within six months after the adoption of the amendments to submit a proposal, whether or not to impose restrictions on the purchase of Russian government bonds and derivatives.
Finally, ministries and Federal agencies are requested to prepare a report on economic interests, assets and relationships of the top management of Russia close to him are oligarchs and members of their families. This is a clear hint of a desire to impose new personal sanctions. Such sanctions against Russian interests were never introduced. And that’s not counting the $ 250 million allocated to the fight against “Russian propaganda and disinformation”, and pledges to support NATO and the EU in the fight against the attempts of Moscow to weaken them.
How Putin will respond?
The bill creates big problems for the Kremlin, several EU countries and parts of the Russian opposition. If the Russian leadership headed by Vladimir Putin (who, incidentally, was first named by name in the text of the amendments) wants to avoid new sanctions, it should at least implement the Minsk agreements and to stop supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. And it is hard to imagine.
In the current logic of the Kremlin’s actions – escalate the situation, at least in order to not look like losers in the eyes of Russian citizens. Restrictions on the activities of American companies in Russia, the new repression against NGOs and the closure of the office of “Radio Liberty” are just a few of the simplest possible answers to the senators. The recognition of the self-proclaimed “LNR” and “DNR” – the other possible step, along with the release of the remaining treaties on nuclear disarmament and the Founding act Russia-NATO.
All this is easy to do – and all it carries giant risks for economic and political stability of the Russian regime. Moreover, that part of the provisions of the new bill directly threatens the Russian elite pushes those who do not want to be the sanctions list, to oppose the current line of the Kremlin.
Russia: a new mobilization and the political crisis
The European Union, especially those countries that favour a softer line towards Moscow, too, will have to make a choice. Recently guests from different countries of the EU are frequent in Russia. No, no one is going to lift the sanctions and waive the requirement to implement the Minsk agreements. However, it seems that the resumption of business as usual with Moscow for many it seems entirely possible. The logic is simple – the sanctions are not canceled, but approach them formally. Highly extensible exceptions. Activitiesa in those areas where there are no restrictions or they are not so obvious.
However, most European companies have huge interests in the United States. There are their branches, their shares are traded on the new York stock exchange. Go across the American line they can not, especially now that the Senate amendment doing business in Russia area almost continuous risk.
Finally, if additional sanctions are enacted, not easy to have that part of the Russian opposition, who are trying to deal with the Kremlin policy within the country, while either ignoring or supporting the current foreign policy.
That Vladimir Putin will not only meet the senators, but will require companies total support at a new stage of struggle against the external enemy, no doubt. Due to the growth of dissent, this requirement will be as loud and hard. “I’m for democracy, but Crimea is still ours!” – this approach will soon be subjected to a severe test.
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