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May quarantine a small business will not survive

Майский карантин малый бизнес не переживет

Deputies of different levels from Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region appealed to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to social benefits to all citizens. The initiative was published on the website of the Association of independent MPs. MPs propose during the epidemic of the coronavirus to pay the Russians for 25 thousand rubles.

The authors of the address remind that the state has accumulated huge reserves for a rainy day, and believe that this day has come.

“We insist that the state must fulfil its constitutional social role, and urge to provide sufficient benefits (25 thousand rubles for an adult and 15 thousand rubles for children) all citizens of Russia at the expense of means of the Federal budget”, — the statement says.

The MPs believe that financial assistance will help to maintain effective demand for goods and support the economy.

— Analysis of these proposals let us begin with the figures, commented on the initiative of the deputies economist Anna Ochkina.

— On January 1, 2019 lived in Russia 146,78 million people. If we subtract, for example, children up to 14 years, the payment to EACH adult Russians will be more than 3 trillion rubles, and payments on 15000 per child (in our example up to 14 years) — about 650 billion rubles. In the budget 2020 just over 5 trillion of all social policy expenditures, in addition, education allocated 912,5 billion, for the health of 1.03 trillion rubles. SWF on 01.03.2020 year, there were 8 trillion 249 billion 590 million rubles. So even a single such payments can become a heavy burden for the budget.

In addition, in Russia is quite high inequality. The money given by wealthy people, not back into the economy, or return without much impact on it: settles into savings or be spent on luxuries. You just have to help the most needy.

You first need to maintain payment of full salaries to all employees who have the April hours. But employers may not pay awards or bonuses as the enterprises stood idle, and even at the distance the work was not at full strength. And the majority of Russian companies, premiums range from 10 to 50% of monthly earnings, public sector wages consist of salary and allowances.

According to the philosopher, sociologist, associate Professor of philosophy, sociology and cultural studies of the Ural pedagogical University Andrey Koryakovtseva, “handing out money for free” is now extremely popular idea.

— Its popularity speaks volumes about how poorly today, the influential liberal ideology. Can you imagine that in 90 years? No! Then these ideas were branded as “encouraging dependency.” Any liberal would you then explain that this will only harm: rising prices and inflation. In the framework of (neo)liberal model of the economy that it would do so, and no other model is liberal does not want to know. The current rationale of this strategy of distribution of “nishtyakov” population is the usual for our government aping: “do in the West!”.

It does not take into account neither the consequences nor the difference in the economic and political situations. For example, take the USA. There is a similar issue — is this an election bribe trump. In the US, all those payments due to political reasons and the economic consequences Trump cares, he needs a second term to go. And after the new election, it will be possible to devalue the dollar, and the economy to restart.

“SP”: From an economic point of view it makes sense?

— Such payments only make sense in one case: if the price of the most important products will record, and their production natsionaliziruyut, at least partially. In principle, the higher the bureaucracy is able to do it. It does not need any grassroots revolution. Modern history has examples of this. But it does not cause a similar sequence to the rejection of the society, especially on the part of the bourgeoisie? Now she herself does not understand, that demanding help from the state, brings to life the spirit of “scoop”, at least in its incarnation in the NEP, the spirit of regulation.

I think that such deep reforms are quite possible, but only if the situation with the crisis, burdened by quarantine will last a very long time. And it is unclear, therefore, our government waits and does not go to drastic measures, preferring to feed the people a little, since he suffers. But. I repeat: if the situation escalates, that a deeper reform is possible without regime change — in the same way as they can become impossible if the government will change.

— Russia found itself in a paradoxical situation during the pandemic, believes political analyst of Fund of development of civil society institutions “public Diplomacy” Evgeny Valyaev.

— On the one hand, we impose fairly rigid quarantine. On the other hand, say that the state controls everything, there is nothing to fear, and money in the budget. But financial support is insufficient. We point out that in Western countries and Asia, which effectively fight the pandemic, act and more serious penalties for violation of self-isolation. This is true, although in those countries, which we indicate completely different level of population income, as well as financial support from the state.

The initiative of a number of Russian deputies to pay people money during the quarantine sounds adequately. The state under capitalism and a market economy should pay for such a simple citizens and business expenses. A more critical and force majeure stories than the current pandemic, difficult to imagine. What needs to happen to start spending money on people? The moment has arrived.

“SP”: And the money is there?

— Budgetary spending in Russia has always looked inefficient, where medicine, education and science were underfunded, and the power unit, in turn, was prefinancial. It’s time for a more equitable redistribution of budget funds in favor of the people. It’s time to think about improving the efficiency of state management and budget development.

“SP”: the Proposed amount would be enough?

— 25 thousand rubles — this is a very small amount, is the minimum that should have been allocated to each citizen of the Russian Federation in the beginning of the quarantine. The minimum payments were only pensioners. The rest of the financial assistance that announces the state, it is very difficult to achieve. For the unemployed and sinking business has created many restrictions and regulations that this state aid simply impossible to use. Bureaucracy drowns such support. But it’s like designed specifically to reduce the number of those who have this help will be able to use it.

In any case, the money will be allocated to people from the state or not, you cannot delay the period of General quarantine. These minimum payments will not save the economy, and small and medium business will not stand still and may quarantine.

© 2020, paradox. All rights reserved.

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