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Lukashenko takes “Friendship” hostage

Лукашенко берет «Дружбу» в заложники

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has threatened Russia with confiscation of the two pipes of the oil pipeline “Friendship” through which Russian gas goes to Europe, if we fail to reach agreements in the energy sector. According to him, the pipeline will be used to reverse the oil from Poland. He promised to seek alternative supplies of oil from Russia, which he does not hide from Moscow.

“I can — this is the cheapest route through Poland, they offer it, to take Saudi oil or American, which is cheaper from the market in Gdansk on the tube … the reverse,” — said Lukashenko in an interview with radio station “Echo of Moscow”.

The Belarusian leader said, using his country through three tubes of oil pipeline “Druzhba”.

“At the first stage I take one pipe and reverse supply to the refinery… I take that oil and recycle. Goes well — I’ll take the reverse of the second pipe,” he threatened. After that Russia will remain one tube.

Recall that Russia “Friendship” supplies to the West about 70 million tons of oil. One branch of the pipeline, it will be able to pump only 20 tons.

Earlier in Sochi took place the negotiations of Alexander Lukashenko with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, after which the leaders, according to the Belarusian President, were “couple of problems”. The Minister of economic development of Russia Maxim Oreshkin commented on the results of the meeting, saying that the final agreement on the integration of the two countries to block three groups of issues in the field of oil, gas and taxes.

It should be noted that Belarus entirely dependent on Russian gas and oil, any alternative supplies will cost him more.

Also recall that the old Man has promised to block the “Friendship”. In April of this year, the Belarusian President compared some of the actions of the Russian partners in the closing of the market of the Republic of Belarus with sanctions and threatened to shut the pipeline for repair.

“If you want to put on the repair of the pipelines and the oil pipelines that go through Belarus, the place and repair. Because the good that we do for the Russian Federation, we constantly turns evil. There is insolent to such an extent that we begin to twist arms”, — he said at a meeting with members of the government.

The threat of the Belarusian President then was never implemented. It will be now?

Russia had made concessions to Ukraine, — the Director of the Institute of the EEU Vladimir Lepekhin.

And this fact has spurred the appetites of the head of Belarus. Remember, Ukraine responded to the joke of Putin “And we have gas in the apartment. And you?” — “And we have a pipeline. Here.” And this, as subsequent events showed, was no joke. Why Belarus is not to go this route?

Sitting on the tube — the aspiration of Lukashenko, is a great way to ensure the supply of the national budget.

“SP”: — What arrangements Lukashenko wants?

— Lukashenka does not matter what specific concessions will be carried out by the Russian side: oil quotas, additional volumes of gas with the possibility of exports, high tariffs on pumping of hydrocarbons through Belarus, etc. it is Important that RB was a widow at the expense of Russian concessions. That’s why there is a permanent bargaining and cannot agree on anything. From Chapter RB would make an outstanding salesman, but in politics he his grip sales Manager leading Russian-Belarusian relations to a standstill.

“SP”: — What is this turn may end in Minsk?

— Lukashenko from other Russia is increasingly becoming in her “a committed partner” — and this is important consequence.

“SP”: — How do you think Moscow will respond? Do I need to give in to blackmail that out of the mouth Farther sounds not for the first time?

— Is the logic of common sense, is the logic of the Kremlin. As practice shows, are two different things.

Russia is not able to put a tough question on gas transit through Ukraine. It is possible that in relation to Belarus, Russia will take on a snotty attitude, Recalling, as it did today, Kozak, for a margin of safety. “2.9 billion dollars in compensation of Ukraine — is a drop in the ocean of the real risks”, — said Kozak. And where is the guarantee that tomorrow he will declare that “the two branches of the Belarusian oil pipeline is a drop in the ocean”?

It is this logic understands Lukashenko, periodically bending of the Russian government on certain concessions to Minsk.

— To take seriously the statements of Alexander Lukashenko is not necessary, — said the expert on Russian-Belarusian relations Dmitry Bolkunets.

— If it were possible, the old Man has long been sold of the plan. For several years the Belarusian leader is afraid of Russia buying oil from different countries. Further words business did not move. The story of Venezuelan oil, and all ended with the collapse of the Belarusian ruble.

“SP”: — whether technically this reverse?

— Technically, such a reversal is possible, but economically it is not profitable.

Interesting to see how Lukashenka will demand from Poland or the U.S. supply of oil at a deep discount. And the cost of “alternative” oil immediately get a feel for the citizens and motorists.

“SP”: — And what Russia will lose?

— Russia will not lose anything. The oil can be sold to other countries at market prices.

“SP”: — What arrangements Lukashenko wants? Will they Moscow?

Alexander Lukashenko voiced his main desire is to obtain Moscow’s support for another presidential term only after which he will integrate. Between the concept of sovereignty and personal power, he put a sign of equality.

Alexander G. came in of the French king Louis XIV, who was zaglavlja: “I am the State”. From the latest statements we can conclude that there is no integration with Lukashenko will not.

© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.

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