The head of the Chamber Alexei Kudrin gave its forecast for the Russian economy in an interview with Bloomberg. In particular, he believes that economic growth in Russia in 2019 will be below one percent.
“Unfortunately, the slowdown will be sharper than anticipated by the government,” Kudrin stated.
According to him, this will contribute to Western sanctions, ruble devaluation and the increase in value added tax (VAT) to 20 per cent. In particular, the head of the chamber stressed that the sanctions cost Russia approximately 0.5 percentage points on the current forecast for GDP growth. In the case of more stringent measures, the losses will be even higher, according to Kudrin.
The head of audit chamber noted that the Russian economy in this situation will not revive even the sharp rise in oil prices, because the uncertainty of the energy companies prefer to invest in international assets. “While the climate of pessimistic,” he stated.
According to Kudrin, “the oil increase will increase the outflow of capital, and will not go to domestic consumption”.
Previously, the Ministry estimated the economic growth rate in 2019 at 1.3 percent and the Central Bank at 1.2–1.7 percent.
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