Many have noticed that lately on television became too much of Alexei Kudrin. He always makes statements “as one having authority”, that is, immediately beyond the competences headed by the accounting chamber, it starts to make General statements of policy and to give comments if not the President, the Prime Minister at least. This phenomenon has come to give some preliminary assessment.
It is clear that Alexei Kudrin is not a “cat who walks by himself”, and the speaker positions of certain circles, which he is looking for support. However, he has his ambitions as an officer who considers that he has long outgrown the scope of bureaucratic status and aspiring to a political career. But understand that this transformation will not meet the approval of the President and his entourage, and therefore acting cautiously.
Inner circle of Vladimir Putin formed on political criteria to promote the policy that Kudrin is unacceptable. The fact that Kudrin continues to stay there, more to do with his personal relationship with Putin from the distant past than with their unanimity on the main issues of the global agenda. As well as for reasons of the significance of the figures Kudrin for the liberal clan. To turn Kudrin the leader of the Russian liberals, given his popularity in the West, it would be an obvious political mistake of the government, seeking to keep enemies closer than friends.
No wonder that some knowledgeable experts have begun to speak aloud the idea that Kudrin is quite has a chance to become the next “successor” Putin. For all the apparent insanity of such assumptions need to recognize that there are situations in which such a scenario could be possible.
If Russia under the pressure of economic and political problems and the lack of adequate reaction by 2024, will collapse the current rate, the figure of Kudrin can become not only possible, but compromise to a certain part of the current liberal and illiberal elites. Just because it is acceptable for the West, not a rabid radical and at least guarantees from repression after the loss of the current elite of the old positions. That Kudrin will lead the disintegration of the country, an important factor for them is not.
Political ambitions Kudrin is impossible to ignore. He openly joined the struggle for the higher state posts. In the last two weeks Kudrin gave two important interviews to the television media. It’s pretty much the official top-level, but normally for promoting policies. This is already a PR campaign.
And all his speech was solely on General political topics, not related to the Affairs of the chamber. First, for RBC on the sidelines of the SPIEF-2019, the second – on the First channel Vladimir Pozner, is also quite significant and intelligible figure in the world of Russian journalism.
The fact that Kudrin talked with Posner, not with Solovyov or Karaulov says not just that Kudrin tried to create the most comfortable atmosphere. The first channel is not liberal RBC. The first channel is supposedly the Kremlin’s position.
The fact that the main opponent of the current course of the Kremlin on the main TV channel of the country’s television authorities have given the opportunity to be deployed, outlining their opposing positions, says a lot about the leadership of the First channel that is already beginning to lay eggs in the baskets on the eve of the transfer-2024. And they do not feel rushed. Must they have a reason that is unknown to us, because in the political sense First channel can not refuse.
Posner: “You are the fourth time on this program, one so often was not.” Kudrin: “Suddenly”. Posner: “Yes, suddenly.” Like the old joke when the woman husband caught with lover, exclaims: “Honey, is that you? Then who is this?” Indeed, “suddenly”. Most importantly, accidentally.
Two performances Kudrin need to connect with each other in one and see how emphases. The theme Kudrin end-to-end is not two but one, is divided into two parts. In the first – introduction, exposition, second theme, transition to the main. Code ahead, with the culmination of Kudrin is not in a hurry. He observes the direction of the development of the situation.
In an interview with RBC Kudrin has positioned itself as a friend of business. He argues that the current political and economic model came to the best of my abilities and will not give more than 2% growth per year, and realistically, it is two times less. The conclusion is simple – it is necessary to change the system. The business has accumulated a lot of money to invest but he does not want, because is afraid of the authorities. We need to weaken the control and the business will come to life, start investing.
As the main bugaboos for business Kudrin called Rostekhnadzor, EMERCOM, with its fire inspections too wide license regulation, constant changes in the Tax code that should not be so frequent. Things are obvious and well known.
The fact that Kudrin is in this case not telling, his audience understood by all – he meant the subtext of corruption, as all such checks bear the highest corruption. And rightly so, there will not argue and will not argue. As a competent seller, Kudrin starts the conversation with, proclaims obviously indisputable things, calling out the obvious consent and credibility.
Deceit Kudrin in what he is silent. His silence is much more eloquent than his words. Business in Russia is far from the timid girl. It is easy to cope with all the risks, if he sees the benefit. There are no such fortresses which would not take our business.
They are passive because they do not see benefits from investing in Russia because of the low margins, or rather, his psychological unwillingness to low margin. It is clear that the risks of investment in the Western stock or material assets is now much higher inspections of Rostechnadzor or fire inspection. Is Mamut or Deripaska afraid of Rostekhnadzor? Or Carpaski not American, and the Russian government pressed the aluminum business? And Vekselberg are not offended by the state Department and the Kremlin?
Yes, the margins on investment in Russia is low. Now in the 90s, with their 1000% per annum. But in the West, with their margins of 3-5% per year it is not higher. Business does not invest in Russia, not because he is afraid, and runs to the West not because there not scary (enough to recall the boom of Western investment in the Suharto regime in Indonesia – the mass repressions and physical extermination of opponents, the West did not bother).
The reasons for this behavior in the other. The West is the political center of modern liberalism. The business runs there in the hope of a demonstration of loyalty to escape from the expropriation of the West, not the Kremlin. And with regards to expensive loans, it is not the policy of the liberals, which include not only the government, but Kudrin?
Kudrin does not lie directly, but he’s lying figures of silence. He builds a distorted reality. Why? This he says in the second interview, Posner.
Kudrin: “the Country the last 6 years have not used their chance, and our share of world trade fell. We do not become more competitive.” The last 6 years, this is the end of 2013 and beginning of 2014. Need I remind Kudrin, what happened in these years? The coup in Ukraine, Crimea, the Donbas, the sanctions – all this Kudrin forgotten? No, remember. And not just blame Putin that he does not want to negotiate with the West. What does it mean to “negotiate” Kudrin – clear. Putin is already firmly replied: sovereignty is not traded. But Kudrin everyone skips past the ears and bends the line.
“The last 10 years, the country is stagnating, (annual growth) of about 1%, it was only worse during the war”. A good parallel, isn’t it? Why in war do it? Hitler’s fault. And why now right? Posner understands very well what he says really is and why he says so. But Kudrin is not to catch the words. “In the’ 90s it was worse.” Posner agrees, but is surprised: apparently, he and his friends in the 90s was not worse.
Posner: “do You understand why this is happening?” Kudrin: “the Quality of governance is low. Need the digitalization of governance. The share of state-owned companies is very high, they are managed inefficiently. It is in the first place.”
Posner: “What is the gains from pension reform?” Note Kudrin’s answer: “I told you that the center should be the reform of public administration, now is the retraining of officials, but the system itself does not change. I called the regulatory guillotine is a significant decrease of bureaucracy, papers, … tasked to significantly reduce the bureaucratic shaft. This is the right part of the problem. Still not fully solved the challenge of reducing poverty. Today we have 70% of the poor live in families with children.”
Elegant, right? It was the answer to the question, why raise the retirement age. But the answer Kudrin actually given, however, in another interview with Posner. For the year 2012. Again, note the elegance of the wording:
“I work in public economic policy. To carry out pension reform is politics. Whether to raise the retirement age, or not asking at all and taking everything into consideration – it is important to raise pensions, increasing taxes, or to increase pensions without raising taxes, and rebuild some system… obligations… uh… the urgency of retirement? It’s all politics, I did that”.
Well said, right? In General, such a structure question from the fraudulent trading of the above such as: “You the account to send email or Fax”? The fact that the account does not need, because no desire to buy, not discussed. But this whole Kudrin, who raising the retirement age is called “restructure the system of obligations of the urgency of retirement”. A trick of language, when, instead of “kill this man” say: “the Object is subject to neutralization.” The essence does not change, but it sounds intelligent.
However, the problem of poverty, of concern to Kudrin, is not his handiwork? Not his liberal associates? And Posner crushing about this is the hypocrisy? As if field Marshal Wilhelm von Leeb, commander of army group “North” during the siege of Leningrad, lamented about the low daily rations in Leningrad.
Kudrin in 2012 have already identified their political goals:
“I am a supporter of liberal views. We underestimate the role of political institutions in providing stability. Political competition in the evolution of the political system is a very important thing.” For starters: “I would not call us with Vladimir Putin supporters”.
It is very noticeable and without recognition Kudrin. But there’s another lie Kudrin, to pass which it is impossible: “I can name Vladimir Putin as a friend, we were together 20 years. Now recognized that Russia has created a financial sovereignty, but I would repeat that we are not entirely like-minded”.
What kind of “financial sovereignty” built Kudrin, seen by the effect of the sanctions, when the crisis on the overlap of access to dollar loans caused severe economic downturn, but our liberals any rain in the face – God’s dew.
Under political competition Kudrin understands himself, the incoming President of Russia at the head of the Pro-Western opposition. Transfer-2024 too exciting acts on those who since the arrest of Khodorkovsky was waiting in the wings. And so began a political PR Kudrin will only increase. “Friend” Vladimir Vladimirovich acts as Brutus in Julius Caesar, but it operates openly, openly.
Kudrin plays the role of RAM pressure on Putin in a period of escalating political confrontation. Actually no one playing on the card of Kudrin by the President does not see it – he was not drawn to this role, but he copes with the role of “grabbing legs”.
Illusions about the activity Kudrin and its forces should not be any. This is one of the candidates from the Pro-Western fifth column, have not departed family, which infiltrate into power under the guise of a moderate statesman, speaker proper severe things.
The language of PR is called a “legend”. The wolf met little Red riding Hood, also dressed up as a grandmother and then ate her the same as all before. Therefore, in any grim Russian liberals will not be able to convince people of his good attitude towards it. Period of faith in the liberal fairy tale was long and finally.
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