There is a sense that the era of high oil prices, which began the 1950-ies, for over Russia earlier than in 2025-2050 mentioned theorists. This era is over now.
It’s not a Disaster, with the price of oil, which now is quite possible to live. When Kasyanov, the Russian Federation was even a budget surplus for the same $30 per barrel.
However, the financial resources of the authoritarian system of Putin, based on the windfall from high oil prices, exhausted. To create the illusion of a paternalistic state, “pouring money” problem, now nothing.
Oil “land-lords” — the owners and managers of state oil companies, instead of “breadwinners of the budget” and “most important people” of the country is now turning into normal business and normal leaders, compelled to work under the same conditions, low profit margins, as the rest of the economy. Even the possibility to ask for “help” in the form of benefits from the state they have dramatically decreased.
Says the wise Warren buffet: “only when the tide is turning, you can see who was swimming without panties”. Here we will see who the leaders of the oil companies is a “brilliant Manager”, and who super-expensive oil just to compensate for the damages from their “brilliant” management.
These events with the fall in oil prices will lead to economic and political changes in Russia.
Authoritarianism, based on the distribution of resources received from high oil prices will end, giving place to democracy.
The number of supporters of “fair distribution of natural resource rents” greatly thinned in connection with the exhaustion of this “rent”.
The value to the economy of small and medium business, as the breadwinner of the budget and the people will rise sharply, but the influence of oligarchs and big business on politics and the distribution of budget money will decrease. At the same time there will be many issues of major raw materials business and the business “first repartitions” about taxes and harm the environment.
The share of small and medium-sized businesses, badly battered regime “isolation”, arranged by the state during an outbreak, begin to grow.
Society will finally cease to expect handouts from the budget and think about how to occupy themselves with creative work. First it will be difficult, but then everything will work out.
Start real, not fake state import substitution. Will begin importing production technology, not to report to the officials, and for profit and production of goods.
People who are willing and able to engage in creative work, from “suckers” and “nerds” will start to become the main people of the society with increasing levels of remuneration compared to a parasitic class of bureaucrats, deputies and the “siloviki”.
Industrial investment and companies able to produce industrial products, local and regional authorities will create a “most-favored-nation” instead of a robbery since the “of Putinism”. And for trying to roll out the penalty and try to get a bribe from the industrial enterprises of the “security forces” will decrease the size of the “gears” on the shoulder straps, and officials will take place at the labor exchange.
Society will understand that feeds it is not raw business, and entrepreneurial talent and creative work. And we will improve.
1860-1960 considered “the Golden age of Russian engineering.”
1950-2050 considered “the Era of Big oil”.
A good example of how the resource curse can destroy a technologically advanced country.
It’s time to get back to basics. “The Golden age of Russian engineering” began with the huge investments of the kings in the national and higher education. This should start us.
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