GDP will be $130.5 billion
In 2018, the dollar equivalent of the GDP of Ukraine will reach $130.5 billion it is reported that the increase of 16.8% primarily driven by positive dynamics of commodity prices.
Net commodity exports of Ukraine to 2018 will amount to $9.3 billion versus $7.1 billion in 2017-ω (mainly due to the increase of agricultural exports by $1.8 billion).
In 2019-2021-ies of the growth of dollar GDP will fall slightly to an average of 12.1%. At the same time, the growth rate of real GDP – will rise to average values of 3.7%, and the rate of inflation in the economy will slow from the current 15.6% to just 11.3%. Changes in the structure of GDP growth is primarily due to the expected slowdown in prices for energy products and metals, as well as the further implementation of the National Bank policy to reduce annual consumer price inflation to 5%.
In turn, reduced political risk after the elections in 2019, the year will greatly improve the business climate, which compensates for a potential decrease in the dynamics of growth in commodity export revenues. In parallel, despite the increasing political turbulence in the next year and ongoing 1Q of 2018 is the drop in investment due to the inflow of money for the elections in the $2-2,5 billion and the corresponding growth in domestic demand, the economy will be able to maintain the positive dynamics of real GDP (+3.9 percent). The dollar equivalent of GDP next year will grow by 12.6% to $147 billion.
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