In Russia, a new statistical anomaly. By mysterious coincidence, according to Rosstat, the peaks of the gains in life expectancy have in the years before the presidential election. So it was in 2011, and in 2017.
Tellingly, the preliminary results of the life expectancy and usually are announced by the authorities just before the elections. So, in February of 2018, the Ministry of health publicly announced that the figure for the previous year reached 72.7 years.
Assuming political logic, once again life expectancy has to jump exactly to 2024. After President Vladimir Putin may decree set the task to increase up to 2024 life expectancy to 78 years, and by 2030 — as much as 80 years.
In reality, note, prospects for the execution of the decree obscure. In 2018, the life expectancy in Russia rose by a meager 0.2 years (to 72.9 years). This is a minimal increase from 2014, when Russia entered Crimea, lowering overall life expectancy (LE) in the country.
A little retouch this picture, apparently, is called statistics.
If you believe Rosstat, overall life expectancy in Russia has increased steadily since 2003 — but not monotonically, but in waves. Over the last 12 years on the chart of life expectancy externally observed peaks that coincides with the election years. Before the elections of 2008, 2012, 2018, the growth has reached 0.8−0.9 years, and the following year was reduced two to four times.
As explained in 2018, the experts of the Higher school of Economics, OS for a year — this model indicator, which measures the level of mortality of the total population during a given period, and accumulates the levels of mortality in all age groups.
If desired, this can be interpreted as follows: the method of calculation leaves loopholes that allow statisticians to “play with numbers”.
Rosstat in a detailed response to a request to RBC stated that there is no real correlation of life expectancy with the elections there, and “we should not attach too much importance to the fluctuations in annual growth of OS”.
Rosstat reported that life expectancy in Russia (as, however, and in other countries) are influenced by the wave of cold (or heat) and the incidence of influenza/acute respiratory infections. “In countries with a cold climate, this dependence is particularly obvious,” said the statistical office.
“In 2018 (the life expectancy has increased only by 0.21 years), we observed the unpleasant consequences of a cold snap in March-April. In 2019 we survived the cold in January and February, and it may also affect the value of the index LE for the current year”, — said in Rosstat.
Against this background, favorably 2017 (the index rose by 0.83 years), when in one month there was a significant increase in the number of deaths in contrast to the neighboring years, concluded the representative office.
Perhaps the way it is. Only faith in the infallibility of statistics undermined. As you know, in December 2018, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev replaced the head of the statistical Agency for being too pessimistic assessment of the year. And in February in Russia, there was an economic miracle, Rosstat reported on record (2.3 percent) GDP growth in six years.
In reality the situation with life expectancy in Russia?
— Putin can put all sorts of tasks with maturity in 2024 — just because by that time it will no longer be in office — said head of chair of international relations and diplomacy of the Moscow humanitarian University, former diplomat in Germany, USA Nikolay Platoshkin. And the question arises: maybe today you should do something and not wait for 2024?
Notice Putin has been in power for 20 years. We have after world in five years the country’s economy was restored when killed 40% of the accumulated in the entire history of the country’s national wealth. And now we have the President speaks about the year 2024 or 2030. Soon, apparently, the horizon promises to 2050 will reach.
“SP”: — whether the statistics is Disingenuous when he talks about the increase in life expectancy in Russia?
— Disingenuous or not — last year the population again began to decline. That being said, a medical fact. Moreover, the death rate exceeded the birth rate, even in Moscow — the richest region of the Russian Federation.
This is because we have a horrible environment, horrible food and the majority of the population. Suffice it to say that the Republic of Nigeria provides us with palm oil — okay fresh and then the third or fourth spin. This oil in Europe is used only for perfume. And we eat cheese and dairy products.
Russia is the leader among the countries of cardiovascular diseases. And you know why? People have to work two jobs in order to feed the family — especially the men. Or one job but working on weekends and 12 hours a day. Because you vozbuhat — the employer will throw you to hell.
There is an example of Khabarovsk. This region the number of cancer patients exceeds the national level twice. Yes, the town has a cancer center, but there is a huge queue. And most of the people who appealed to them, there is simply no chance that they’ll just nachto be treated.
Oncology in Khabarovsk high due to the environment and products that are imported from Asia they are grown God knows what fertilizers. But in the Soviet period Khabarovsk itself, most of the products supplied. But now there are overgrown fields — as elsewhere in the country.
“SP”: — Can in theory oscillate lifespan?
A could rise, to fall. But that’s the same in Slovakia what are you doing? There every year and adjust the retirement age depending on life expectancy. The Slovaks carried out an independent study and if the life expectancy has increased — raise the retirement age by six months. Fell life expectancy reduces the retirement age.
We have the same lies with the increase in life expectancy only one — to justify the heinous anti-social pension reform.
“SP”: — What to do to fix the situation?
— Power in the country change, nothing more. To the government has ceased to focus on the needs of big capital, which all exports from the country, and went after the money. These people therefore do not care in the Russian health, education and everything else. They now live mainly in the West and in Russia come to see how business is booming.
If we leave the power of this commodity group — Russia, I think there is no chance of development. The government should be changed, assign a new socialist government.
— Statistics always bear the seal of a certain bias and politicization, the Dean of the faculty of sociology and political science of the financial University under the government of the Russian Federation Alexander Shatilov. — If to speak in essence, Russia is all right with the life expectancy of women it is even higher than in Soviet times. But with men the situation is extreme way disappoint. Therefore, in order to raise the average standard of living in the country, you need to focus on saving the “stronger sex”, which is proving to be the most vulnerable.
Here is contributing and a certain way of life: moments associated with alcohol, with the majority dying on the roads in traffic accidents are men between the ages of 30-50 years.
Serious negativity also stems from the fact that in the conditions of rigid market economy citizens have to exert himself to provide a tolerable level of existence. Hence, a significant increase in mortality from heart attacks, strokes, diseases related to the overloading of the body.
To remedy the situation, it is necessary, on the one hand, to introduce new technologies, on the other — to implement more socially-oriented policy.
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