Construction of the pipeline “Nord stream — 2” ruin Russia, so no need to bother to build it. To this logical conclusion in the author’s article for Dziennik Gazeta Prawna were Polish political publicist Marek Budzisz.
Until recently, as you know, Warsaw, along with the Baltic countries, Ukraine and the United States, was an ardent antagonist of the “Nord stream-2”, and tried to put a spoke in the wheels to prevent the implementation of the project.
And now pan Budzich unexpectedly invites the allies to accept and be comforted by the fact that the construction of this gas pipeline will cover Russia with a copper basin. They say, the more Russia will export gas, the less income she will receive. There are only “forcing it to sell gas cheap to all the event proved to be unprofitable”.
Budzich somehow draws a parallel with the export of wheat from Russia, which, according to his calculations, in quantitative terms increased by 36%, and the income from it fell by 1.8%. This he calls “ineffective investment” and predicts a similar situation with Russian gas.
Interestingly, the gas is liquefied, the volume of its exports to Europe are going to increase the US and Qatar, the negative Outlook of the Polish journalist do not apply. On the contrary, he States that the LNG market “is steadily becoming a world, and this trend in the long run to stop will not succeed.”
Meanwhile, on the eve of the German foreign Ministry published a report, “Diversity makes independent,” on energy policy of the German government, in which the supply of LNG from the US is recognized as not competitive.
Then it is not clear, on what are based the claims of Polish analyst, that “Nord stream-2” will be out of business?
The only explanation is incompetence of the expert in these matters, — commented a leading expert of the national energy security Fund, lecturer of Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation Igor Yushkov. — It is, in General, says absolutely incomprehensible, incoherent, illogical things.
For the first time. The author assumes that there is only one gas market — European, and all countries will try to put their gas at any price. They will sell more and more, and the price will fall. But the high cost, in his logic, namely Russia, because it will be ruined and all others are ruined… the Americans plan to increase exports, they will not go bankrupt. And Russia is somehow ruined…
This, of course, wrong. Because the markets are connected and markets global. The same goes also American LNG to Asia and South America. For example, in 2016, Americans 16 billion cubic meters exported. To Europe took about two billion, and the rest was placed in Asia and Central and South America.
Therefore, there is a wide misconception that will be such an excess and such a competition in the European market, the price will be permanently reduced.
The second point is the pricing of gas. The price of Russian gas is tied to the cost of oil and oil products — ie, first the oil should fall in price to the Russian gas cheaper. And this is a big question.
“SP”: — Why, after all, there are sharp decreases in the price?
— The fact that their main volume we supply under long-term contracts and not the spot market. Accordingly, the oversupply in the market, in General, does not lead to a reduction in price of Russian gas.
But the main point is that (and Poland, by the way, it always says, and Ukrainians, and they constantly confuse these two elements) that through the “Nord stream-2” will go to Europe the gas that now flows through Ukraine. So it’s not additional supply is 55 billion cubic meters. No. We’ll build up your exports to Europe, when we construct the pipeline, and only change the route of delivery of gas.
Russia as exported in 2018 in Europe somewhere around 200-210 billion cubic meters, the same volume and be exported. Just, if it is 90 billion cubic meters go through Ukraine, after launching at full capacity “Nord stream 2”, respectively, through Ukraine will go to 55 billion less.
And the total scale will remain the same.
Here is a highlight. It’s not the extra gas, but the one that is currently coming to Europe. And why should we splurge, it is unclear…
“SP”: — But the author is looking for allies in Europe to “force Russia” to sell gas cheaper. While Americans who sell the poles liquefied gas almost twice more expensive than the Russian, he is not asking to reduce the price. Weird?
— How are they forced? It is a market, a gas market. Market-based instruments all work here. They say: “We will not have to buy if you give us a dollar will not give”.
Do not buy. But, what will happen to your energy? The gas is the same product as everyone else. Poland depends on it. Well, let him renounce Russian supplies. They had built a LNG terminal is 5 billion cubic meters of gas per year. But they don’t load it to full capacity.
In fact, the poles now have the opportunity to reduce purchases of Russian gas, but just don’t do it, because Russian gas is cheaper. And the LNG terminal used by them, in fact, as a ritual object to which they pray. And which sort of allows them to talk about some freedom.
But then the market situation.
Why, for example, Poland doesn’t reduce consumption of coal, and is still one of its main customers in Europe? Despite the fact that it is a dirty fuel. Because if they want to refuse the Russian gas, they more will have to increase coal consumption, and it’s against EU regulations. Brussels, on the contrary, declare a reduction in coal consumption.
So, all the arguments of the Polish pan, actually, this is a great incompetence, misunderstanding of the market situation, some “wishlist” and populism.
President of center of strategic communications Dmitry Abzalov believes that to threaten Russia with ruin because of the “Nord stream-2” can only be a man, not versed in the subject matter:
— Of course, if you deliver the gas free of charge, this approach someone someday, perhaps, ruin. But we conclude long-term contracts. Now, oil prices have been over eighty dollars. Why gas prices should be reduced? Iran, moreover, leaves the market in November.
That is, the market, according to conservative estimates, will lose significant amounts of energy, including oil. Plus the gas directly on the territory of the EU is stagnating. Norway produces less, Holland even minimizes your projects.
Why should fall then the price of gas? And our gas prices are tied to oil, they just won’t fall. Even the spot market, it is rather stable now.
Gas in the world no longer is, on the contrary, individual players are gradually leaving the market. And why “Nord stream-2” is not beneficial to us, in this case, quite clear.
Germany would be at a loss to sell? Unlikely. It is becoming a major gas hub of Europe — i.e. it will buy gas from us and then distribute it around Europe. The Germans, as is well known, can count.
That is, it is unclear on what basis, put forward the assumption that these supplies will be a loss to us.
“SP”: — On the basis of the export of wheat…
— With regard to the analogy with grain, last year (and it was a fruitful year for all, including for Ukraine) allowed to significantly increase exports. Yes, the drop in the value has occurred. But the profitability of grain exports more significantly. We are the main grain supply to Egypt, Turkey and South-East Asia. At the same time our grain is significantly cheaper than European, so one can keep the markets.
Russian producers have huge supplies, but this year due to the lower harvest, they are able to earn more. If we will export it at a higher price. However, the British stock exchange prices have soared.
From this point of view, it is unclear how, in General, the conclusion is that we in the grain drop?
Rather, it is connected with despair. Trump, as we recall, at the meeting with the Polish President said that he did not intend to impose sanctions against European companies involved in the implementation of the “Nord stream-2”. And if the sanctions will not be imposed, nothing prevents them to finish building this pipeline. Especially because it is quite intensive already built in the underwater part and approximately 70 km of pipes already laid.
“SP”: — Why is Poland so frustrating?
Because Poland, too, was trying to become a hub, but liquefied natural gas. And for her, of course, cheaper Russian gas from Germany, it is very bad news. Through Germany almost all of Europe will be putting on our gas. And all of these LNG terminals, which Poland themselves for a lot of money to build a liquefied gas from America, will stand, as now, more than a third empty. Well, will be loaded with our own tankers “Yamal LNG”, for example.
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