In the coming months and years expect the world and Russian economy? Which of the Russian regions most attractive for investment and from the point of view of job search, and from the point of view of a “normal” salary? Is there any hope for the return of the national projects? These problems were discussed by the participants of the XIV International conference “Russian regions in the focus of change” (traditional organizers Ural Federal University, analytical center “Expert” and the magazine “Expert-Ural”).
There is a risk of a global recession
According to Marek Dombrowski, Professor of the Higher school of Economics and one of the “architects” of the Polish “economic miracle” of the 1990s, the global economy is optimistic: developed countries expect 2-3% growth, and China, Indonesia and especially India — 6-8% (these countries are the main drivers of the world economy), the planned acceleration in the middle East and Africa.
At the same time, there is a risk of a global recession. According to the chief economist of VTB Andrei Klepach, it may occur in a year. May affect braking industry in Europe and specifically in Germany, the return to protectionism and specifically the consequences of the trade war the US and China, bloating the stock bubble, the decline in the working age, well-educated and skilled population, potential conflicts in sensitive regions: the Persian Gulf in the South China sea, the conflict between India and Pakistan.
Speaking about the Russian economy, its share of global GDP is negligible and inadequate.
If the share of China rose from 3.2% in 2000 to 18.7% in 2018, the share of India, respectively, from 4.2% to 7.7%, while Russia’s share has declined from 3.3% to 3.1%. This year even by optimistic estimates, Russia’s economic growth will be only 1.2% of the: effects of such large infrastructure projects as the construction of Crimean bridge, as well as from the world Cup, exhausted. Moreover, the facilities built for the world Cup, from arenas for celebration and fun turned into a burden for the regions. Economic backwardness of Russia will continue, especially in the case of a global recession and decrease in oil prices and other commodities.
Central stadium in Yekaterinburg was reconstructed in the Novels modularhomes / Znak.com
191 billion roubles, the budget of improving the city for six months
In the world there is a stratification into leaders and outsiders, developed and underdeveloped, rich and poor, and Russia is not at the forefront. Moreover, the same process of polarization, which began several years ago continues in the country. According to the economic geographer Natalia Zubarevich, dynamics of Russian GDP at the beginning of the turning of 2014, investment the middle of the same year, incomes fall 2014. “Somehow it does rather than as something” — described the situation Natalia. At the same time in connection with the sanctions and shocks for the money (and behind them the manpower) to go where there are clearly competitive advantages and investment definitely will pay off in Moscow and the Moscow region, St Petersburg and the Leningrad region, other large agglomerations such as Kazan and Yekaterinburg, Tyumen oblast oil and gas in Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous districts and other regions in the South, comfortable for living of the country — Krasnodar Krai and the Crimea.
Jaromir Novels / Znak.com
If the national average amount of investment is below pre-crisis 2013, Moscow — at the inaccessible margin: 20% of all investments last year, plus 5% in 2014. The capital accounts for almost 30% of all revenues in regional budgets the profit tax and personal income tax in January-July this year in Moscow took more than half raised excise taxes and transfers. Growth of expenses of Moscow on education, sotspolitiki utilities — 3-6% higher than the national average, the growth of expenditure on the improvement — more than four times.
In January–July this year, Moscow has spent on landscaping 191 billion, 15% of its budget, other regions could afford to send for the same purpose not more than 1-2%.
To make it clearer: 191 billion is more than all the budget expenditures of five largest cities in the country (without St. Petersburg) — Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan and Chelyabinsk, in the whole of 2019. Or more of the annual costs of Crimea (185 billion rubles).
According to Zubarevich, change “landscape” to be expected, and therefore the most mobile and “advanced” part of the population will continue to be “absorbed” a few growing cities and regions. The catch is, said the Director of HSE-St. Petersburg, Sergey Kadochnikov, over the last ten years of the agglomeration formed around the cities, has not increased its proportion in GDP of the country. “Exhausted the resource associated with the influx of people, quantity not transformed into quality. What is their level of education, their sectoral employment are the Central issues today,” — said the expert.
Alluring talents, the million-serve as springboards to jump abroad. Of the order of thousands held innovative companies created over the past decade by students and graduates of national universities, the Russian “registration” saved less than half (most major centers of innovative activity in Russia — Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kazan, Yekaterinburg). The headquarters of other companies moved to the USA, Canada, UK, EU countries, China, Singapore. About this at the conference said by the acting Director of the Institute of Economics and management, Ural Federal University Dmitry Tolmachev.
The future of the regions: the gap and the extinction
It is easy to imagine the future of the majority of Russian regions: a gradual lag and fading. This is evident in the situation in the Ural economic “cluster” (part of the Volga region, Ural, Western Siberia).
Descriptions of Dmitry Tolmachev, the most dynamic economy of the Ural-Volga region and Western Siberia in the Tyumen region (without Autonomous districts).
This subject of the Federation has demonstrated strong growth in investment, industry and gross regional product. The South of the Tyumen region, without exaggeration, “leader of industrialization”: in 10 years, thanks to the investment activity of the authorities and business, the volume of industrial production there has tripled, and now the power of the Tyumen industry comparable to Sverdlovsk.
In the category of “Champions” for all three indicators (dynamics of investment, industry and GRP) includes Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which is currently on the shores of the Kara sea built the largest in Russia plant for production of liquefied natural gas. A significant increase of industrial production and GRP above the national average, is also observed in Bashkortostan and Sverdlovsk region.
An absolute outsider for the same parameters is Chelyabinsk oblast: it has zero or negative results. In the group of “losers” and the agricultural engineering Kurgan oblast.
However, over the last five years, incomes have grown only at inhabitants of Yamal. In Udmurtia, the Orenburg region, Bashkortostan, the growth rate of income was reduced, in the Sverdlovsk region income returned to 2007 levels, and in the Chelyabinsk, Kurgan oblasts, the Perm Krai and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous district fell below the marks 2007. Even in the South of the Tyumen region the rise of investment, industry and regional gross domestic product did not affect the income of people. “The connection between the economic success of some regions and the dynamics of real disposable money incomes of population is almost there. Economic success to the people has not come,” — said Dmitry Tolmachev.
According to analysts, in the coming years, the gaps between the leading regions, such as Tyumen oblast and Bashkortostan, and other areas (this is particularly true of Khanty-Mansiysk, Chelyabinsk and Kurgan regions) will increase. Analysts, in particular, predict a decline in the population of the Urals by 20% over the next 15 years.
“The demand of Russian companies in loans and investments — 10 billion rubles a year”
“To reverse the negative trends and the existing potential of economic growth at 3-4% a year is possible”, — says Andrey Klepach. If you raise the incomes of state employees and retirees, to heat solvent demand, reduce costs and extend loans to businesses to support investment, to invest in health and education, in innovation and transport infrastructure. Why not: the Federal budget, transferred Andrei Klepach, in surplus, government savings placed abroad, has reached 9% of GDP and will increase corporate debt load small.
But the same Klepach admits the draft Federal budget for the next three years significant increase of salaries of state employees does not provide a further increase in the number of pensioners compared to the working age group population leads to the backlog of pensions from average incomes.
Already small, at around 4%, the proportion of budgetary spending on health and education be reduced from the beginning of the decade and even 2024-th, presidential election year, according to the plans, will not exceed the indicators of 2010.
Jaromir Novels / Znak.com
All these years, falling costs of transport infrastructure (excluding oil and gas “pipes”), and five years at best, they will return to the level of 2010. A good example: China in the last quarter century in half ahead of America in longest roads of higher technical category, the accelerated pace of construction of high-speed rail lines bypassed the rest of the world, we are on the CSM so far only dream of. “I hope that in our lifetime something will be”, — not without irony said Andrey Klepach.
According to estimates businessman Andrei Bril, the demand of Russian companies in loans and investments — 10 billion rubles a year, but development funds provide only a few tens of billions. The key rate of the Central Bank, though reduced over the past year, from 7.75% to 6.5%, still not enthusiastic entrepreneurs. As noted by Brill, the Russian banks have refused from its main function of transformation of savings of the clients in a long-term credit resources, procedures and lending terms difficult and expensive. Plus the dubious “pleasure” to interact with officials and security forces. Is it any wonder that, according to polls by the Levada center, the mood of our business is twice as worse than in 2007, the net outflow of capital abroad has exceeded in the last three quarters of the $ 30 billion, swollen remnants of the companies Bank accounts: under uncertainty the investment is not at risk.
Officially touted that make technological and economic breakthrough, to mitigate territorial inequalities will help 13 national projects, Vladimir Putin proclaimed at the beginning of the current presidential term and are estimated at 25.7 trillion. The experts on this account is less than enthusiastic expectations and more doubt.
First, recalled Andrei Klepach, the state program on development of healthcare, education, science and technology, and transportation have already been taken and not made completely, for example, the transport program is only half.
Secondly, according to Klepach, even in the case of full implementation of national projects in education and health (contribution of national projects in these sectors by 3% and 6%) we will be below the 2010 level, and it is certainly not the level of growth to catch up with developed countries.
The same can be said of the national project “Science.” “The cost of it — minuscule, less than 1% of what is spent in Russia on research and development spend relative to GDP is two times less than in China, and our GDP is five to six times less than the Chinese,” — said Klepach (mentioning that the innovation activity in recent times is demonstrated by such corporations, as “Gazprom” and “Rosatom”).
From myself I will add that the national project to support small and medium-sized business and individual entrepreneurial initiatives (hi Andrew Brill) in terms of funding, the third from the end, and closes the list of the national project “Productivity and support employment,” while at the performance we on the fourth top ten countries.
Thirdly, the biggest beneficiary from the execution of national projects is the same in Moscow.
“The perception of national projects as a panacea strikes me. Any projects, whether it be a bridge to Sakhalin or to the TRANS-European-Asian road, the problem of polarization and increasing regional inequality are not cured,” — concluded Natalia Zubarevich. And Zubarevich, and other experts are convinced that success will bring change to the entire economic model — the emancipation of municipalities and regions, deregulation of the economy, the liberation of individual initiative and entrepreneurship. But this national project we have.
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