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In Russia predicted a sharp drop in real incomes

В России спрогнозировали резкое падение реальных доходов граждан

The experts of the Institute “development Center” NRU “Higher school of Economics” (HSE) do not exclude that in the conditions of economic crisis caused by the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19, the fall in real disposable incomes of Russians in the II quarter of current year 2020 it may reach 20%.

Moreover, experts believe, already taken by the government and Central Bank support measures mitigate this decline by 2.2 percentage points.

“For the whole year the decline in real income could range from 8 to 12%”, — quotes “Finmarket” excerpts from a review of the HSE.

Earlier, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation presented the results of a telephone survey of the company “the old”, according to which in Russia is practically every tenth payer loans (11%) over the past two weeks — a month “lost revenue”. “Still about the same (10%) experienced a decline in revenue by more than half; a little more than 14% of taxpayers — lost a third to half of the income”, — says Central Bank.

“Thus, a total of 35% of borrowers (16% of all respondents) fell into the risk group after the first month after the introduction of restrictive measures in connection with epidemic. The decline in revenue less than one-third occurred in only 12% of taxpayers, half of the borrowers income has not decreased”, — stated in the report.

The survey also showed that 39% of respondents saving at the time of the survey was not. Yet 32% of the savings were, but they last time they did not spend. Of having savings in General (both spending and not spending them) at least half (or 24% of all respondents) believe that in the event of a total loss of income he had accumulated enough for three months or more, a third (32%) believe that they will last for one to two months, the sixth part less than a month.

Let’s add that the Russian economy in February—March 2020 was under the powerful impact of two negative factors — the rapid spread of the pandemic coronavirus infection COVID-19 and its deleterious effect on the global economy and collapse in oil prices. Against this background, the rouble significantly depreciated against the dollar and the Euro. Reacting to the situation, the government and the Bank of Russia adopted several packages of measures to support the economy and citizens.

On 21 April the Russian government announced that the value adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers of measures to support the economy already amounted to 2.1 trillion rubles. Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov said that the budget measures for combating coronavirus and its implications in Russia is about 2.8% of GDP. In General, the total volume of fiscal support to individuals and business of all sectors in the context of pandemic coronavirus, the Ministry of Finance was estimated at 6.5% of GDP.

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