The main risks for Ukrainian currency are the changing conditions of the external trade and payments on the national debt.
This year, the hryvnia was one of the strongest currencies in the world, said the Deputy head of the National Bank Dmitry Sologub in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, calling the short-term risks for the national currency.
“If you look at the dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate and compare with other countries, but this year, the hryvnia was one of the strongest currencies. The explanation is simple. We see good trading conditions for Ukraine,” said Sologub.
At the same time, according to him, Ukraine will still need a “safety cushion” in the form of IMF programs, which increases the reserves, lowers the cost of debt borrowing for the government and helps to insure against deterioration in the terms of trade.
“Speaking about the risks, but does not assess their likelihood, the most significant is the change in the terms of external trade and external payments on the public debt”, – said Sologub.
He also added that today, even without the IMF money, the country is gradually coping with the repayment of debts.
“In principle, for the purpose of reserves. But we must understand that the absence of IMF programs and other assistance negatively affects economic expectations, including the attractiveness of Ukraine in the eyes of foreign investors. And not that it influenced the economic performance of tomorrow, it is rather the consequences in the medium term,” he said.
Note, the international rating Agency Standard&Poor’s predicts hryvnia exchange rate at the end of 2018 at the level 29,50 UAH/$, and by the end of 2019 – 30.5 UAH/$.
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