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In Minsk do not want to integrate, and view Russia as a threat to sovereignty

В Минске уже не хотят интегрироваться, и рассматривают Россию как угрозу суверенитету

Belarus will not compromise on the issue of their sovereignty and independence. This was during the annual presidential address to the people of the Republic and Parliament said the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.

The high rating of the country’s unity and territorial integrity of citizens pushes “repeatedly lived experience division of the Belarusian people and the redrawing of borders,” he says. The argument that “Belarus where they turn, Belarus will divide and so on”, he said, cannot come true. Belarusian people “curse” anyone who tries to “destroy Belarus”, even if it is the President or the government, Lukashenka believes.

The Belarusian leader expressed the opinion that the main defender of the sovereignty of the country should be the youth which was born already in the independent state. It was she, according to him, will give a “powerful response” in the event of an attack on the sovereignty of Belarus.

Note that Lukashenko last six months constantly talks about protecting sovereignty, as if he’s really someone in danger. So earlier this year, Lukashenko said that 2019 and 2020 will be difficult for Belarus, since its independence will be “very trying to the tooth”. Then he, however, did not specify how and who will do it.

But in December last year, he put it more specifically, saying that he received offers to be part of Russia “six regions”. Then at a press conference for Russian journalists Lukashenko assured that Belarus will never become part of Russia, and the concept of “sovereignty” the country is Holy. All these statements appear on the background of rumors that Putin was going to lead the Federal government to save his presidency after 2024.

Lukashenka recalled that repeatedly made many proposals for the development of the Union state of Russia and Belarus, but not all of them were perceived by Moscow, but now these issues have started to rise, but schematically, with confusing politics and Economics.

“I understand these hints: get oil, but let’s destroy the country and join Russia,” — said the Belarusian leader.

According to him, some (Lukashenko did not specify who exactly) say directly that they are ready to join the six Belarusian regions to Russia. In response to such proposals Lukashenka suggested to think about the consequences: on the reaction of the Russians and the international community.

According to him, Belarus “by hook or by crook” trying to incorporate in another part of the country, but Minsk “Holy is the sovereignty.”

The idea of incorporation arrives from Moscow under the guise of “deep integration” — said Lukashenko. “We say the maneuver will you do when, as some say, more profound integration. And some straight talk — we’re ready for you to six regions became part of the Russian Federation”, — he said.

“If we want as Zhirinovsky suggested to divide the region and to push into Russia, this will never happen. And if such categories Russian leadership thinks is to the detriment of Russia itself,” — said Lukashenko.

And in February of this year, Lukashenko has told about the readiness to go in uniting the peoples of the two countries so far, and how ready the citizens themselves.

“I will Express my opinion, I think my colleague and friend (the President of Russia Vladimir Putin — ed.) will agree with this — we are ready to go so far in unity, combining our efforts, States and peoples, as you are ready. Look, tomorrow we can unite together, we have no problems. But are you ready, Russians and Belarusians, it is a question,” said the President.

Throwing Lukashenka praised the Russian foreign Ministry. In March, Russia’s Ambassador to Belarus Mikhail Babich said that the Minsk arrives in a partner, if such statements alluding to a threat from Russia. He stressed that the Russian authorities did not suggest that the leadership of Belarus of the Republic in Russia.

So what whether Russia threatens Belarusian sovereignty or not? Or are there other threats?

Threats are external players: NATO, USA, EU, China and Russia, who build a relationship in different formats, and the RB is forced to maneuver between them, — said political analyst Ivan Lizan.

But the main threat is NATO and the United States. Plus the threat to the sovereignty of Russia, with its regular and persistent proposals about integration, due to which Minsk is actively repeats the thesis of the absolute value of sovereignty.

“SP”: — what will be this “powerful response”: Or is it for beauty effect?

— Multidirectional and attempts to maneuver between all, trying to protect national interests, i.e. the interests of the Belarusian elite.

“SP”: — Lukashenko believes that the argument that “Belarus where they turn, Belarus will divide and so on” can’t come true. And someone is going to share or include? In December 2018 Lukashenko said he received offers to be part of Russia “six regions”. Someone in Russia seriously he is offered?

— It is difficult to say when, who and under what circumstances proposed to Alexander Lukashenko to make Belarus a part of Russia. But one of the recipients of the President Ambassador Mikhail Babich, to whom the Belarusian foreign Ministry has twice reminded that Belarus differs from the Federal district of Russia.

“SP”: — According to Lukashenko, the main defender of the sovereignty of Belarus should be the youth which was born already in the independent state. Is it really so? Ready these youth to protect their statehood until the force? And the older generation coming out, no?

— Yes, so. She, unlike the older generation is not a carrier of the Union of identity, but strengthening its role in policy would mean a bias towards EU — young people are liberal and professes a Pro — European views conflict and political superstructure with the economic basis, tied to the Russian market. The EU does not need Belarusian industry, but very necessary Belarusians as labor, i.e. the workers. And the stronger will be the conflict between the superstructure and the basis, the more Belarusians would become migrant workers just because of Russia 2014 and the RF sample 2019 — two different States. Current Russia professes Keynesianism and, in the absence of willingness of Minsk to integrate with Russia in the framework of the Union state and the Eurasian Union, will begin to import Belarusian products, which will automatically lead to a gradual loss of Belarusian companies in the Russian market.

“SP”: — Lukashenko the last six months complaining about threats to sovereignty. What is the purpose? To divert attention from something? To mobilize the population? Does he have it? How long he’ll be able to flaunt?

Multiple. Political — to appease the elite, to protect their interests and further strengthen its image of the strong business Executive and the defender of Belarusian interests when dealing with the sharks of Russian capitalism. Foreign policy — to send a signal to the Kremlin to inform him of unwillingness to integrate into the Russian Federation on the conditions offered, to adjust them in their favor. That is, such statements are also an element of bargaining.

“SP”: — How the sovereignty which protects Lukashenko, combined with the Federal government? The principles that initially laid in the concept of a single government, currency, army, etc. — they are compatible with sovereignty? Not Lukashenka them promoted first?

— SG sample 1999 sample and SG 2019 — two different Union. It is now more correct to say that from the SG in the future is likely to remain only the outline of the defense and security, and all economic issues will be transferred to the jurisdiction of the EEU. In fact, Mikhail Babich offered Minsk to decide what format to integrate with Russia: the SG or the EEU. And the likelihood that Minsk has made his choice not in favor of SG with each statement about the absolute value of sovereignty increases.

That’s just the fact that for Russia sovereignty is valuable, and the two sovereignty without agreement of the necessity of their mutual constraints are always in conflict. And how will relations between the two countries will see in the next year or two.

— In the position of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko we regularly observe very large amplitude, which depends on the degree of negotiations with Russia at a particular moment of time, — says the analyst of Fund of development of civil society institutions “public Diplomacy” Evgeny Valyaev.

— If negotiations are favorable to the Minsk regime, then we hear from Lukashenka that Russia and Belarus is a brotherly country whose friendship is incredibly strong. If Minsk believes that Moscow does not provide any economic preferences, the degree of Lukashenka’s statements immediately changed, and we hear statements that Russia allegedly seeks to deprive Belarus of its sovereignty. This amplitude is sometimes so wide that in a short period of time Alexander Lukashenko can Express even opposite positions.

Not so long ago the leader of Belarus made a statement that he is ready for an incredibly deep integration with Russia, up to unification. He referred to this position as a possible decision of the people on this issue, hinting at a possible referendum. But as soon as Moscow has shown not the level of economic incentives, was waiting in Minsk, Lukashenka began to declare that he is ready to defend the sovereignty of Belarus from Russia.

“SP”: — In his words, to the unity of the country and its territorial integrity citizens pushes “repeatedly lived experience division of the Belarusian people and redrawing borders.” Belarusian state is a little less than 30 years. Can you talk about some appreciation for the unity of the country and its territorial integrity citizens?

— It hasn’t been enough time, so we talked about that emerged of the Belarusian nation. The process of nation-building is much more long and complex, and the active beginning of the process in Belarus was launched in 2014. Today we are witnessing the active oppression of the Russian language in Belarus. We see how the rapidly changing composition of the Belarusian political commentators, most of whom are lobbyists of the Belarusian nation-building. But what would have been active these processes among Belarusian citizens saved the Russian identity and loyalty to Russia. For many Belarusian citizens, Belarus is a homeland, and Russia is a big country. And while this situation gives hope to those dreamers who hope in the future to live in one single country.

The problem with the active oppression of the Russian language in Belarus long time was not raised by Russian officials, though Russian political commentators have long been talking about it. The ice was broken in this direction: the Minister of culture Vladimir Medinsky asked his Belarusian counterpart Yuri Cooper to pay special attention to the protection of the Russian language. It is very important that in the framework of cooperation with Belarus, the Russian politicians paid attention to the cultural interaction between our countries, not just the economy. We are accustomed to the fact that Russia is defending Russian and Russian-speaking people in the former Soviet Union. In Belarus there are a lot of people and you need to pay attention to what the situation is with the oppression of the Russian language, as well as on the degree of pressure on the Russian identity of Belarusian citizens.

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