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If people are disappointed in the leader?

Разочарован ли народ в вожде?

People have little hope for Putin, but accept his rule as inevitable. But the level of discontent with the authorities mirror the requisition of services can not show.

The scandal surrounding the sudden fall of Putin’s rating, the victim of which was loaneasy poll, sucked from the finger. Another questions confidence in the President, just conducted by VTsIOM according to another method, after the Kremlin slammed his fist on the table, curious in form but not in substance.

After all, the attitude of Russians to Putin and in fact can be measured in several ways. Still VTSIOM asked the open question (“we are All one people trust, others — not. But if we talk about politicians, whom You trust, and who would not trust the decision of important state questions?”). A man interviewed by the interviewer himself had to remember the names. He was not prompted.

With this method of measuring the surname “Putin” called 30,5% of the respondents, i.e. slightly less than polls recorded in the last few months (32-34%). Really, fundamental shift in these figures occurred. Moreover, the share of critics — those who remembered Putin as a man they wouldn’t trust “the solution of important public issues” (6,3%), is also decreased. In January—April there were about 7-8%.

When the same poll, in an effort to make amends for non-existent guilt, interviewed the same people, instead of relying on their memory (“please Tell me You trust or not trust Putin?”), have had to answer without evasions, the expected scenario was totally different: 72.3 percent trust and 23.7% do not trust. Even if a survey service is a little overdone (others posterov the proportions of answers to the same question a little less flattering to the leader), then in the order of magnitude is no surprise this extension poll, too, to no avail.

In what ways no question, Putin thoroughly indicators declined in June—July last year, on the occasion of the pension reform, and since then kept at the same level — still, the reports not only Polls, but also of other pasterski firms, very convincing.

Another question, is it reflected in the mirror of survey services, at least some reality? Everyone is free to judge on personal impressions. I myself thought and still think that the majority of people perceive a conversation with pastrami like a conversation with the boss. People more or less satisfied with life, flattering his superiors. But the more he annoyed his life, the more likely the user says something unpleasant. However, doing this, of course, wisely, avoiding statements that, in his estimation, will result in punishment. Are born and ratings.

They’re still good, Putin failed and the majority of our other officers and agencies. It is not excluded that to them and in fact are worse than the first person. But what they still fear is much smaller, is an indisputable fact.

It is most convenient to run this through the weekly statements of the Fund “Public opinion”, more detailed and, to my taste, more flavorful than zimowski.

According to Thomas, Putin’s indicators in these weeks is in no way collapsed. On the contrary. In the first half of may, they increased slightly, which is easy to explain the festive mood of the people, and for the last week fell back to the levels that existed in July last year after retirement the fall.

By Thomas, 63% of respondents now report that Putin works at his post for good and 26% bad. As for the Polls, a comfortable majority “completely” or “rather” trust him. However, the ratio of “fully trust” and “fully distrust” brilliant, you cannot call 26% to 17%. Especially if you compare it with what was in podrumskom 2015 (41% versus 3%). But the margin of safety, as you can see, not so small today.

As for the “United Russia” (the ratio of “definitely trust” and “certainly do not trust” — 14% to 24%) and, especially, Prime Minister Medvedev (7% to 35%), with them, the respondents do not stand on ceremony. But these proportions also installed last summer and since then quite stable.

In the minds of the people, there was another shift, we need some large, impressive whole country event. And those in recent months was not.

But it increased the local event, stunning the local community, such as the Yekaterinburg meetings in the Park near the drama and attempts to stop the construction of the landfill at the station Sees in the Arkhangelsk region.

Will not deal with closed and open-ended surveys on the ground, about them separate conversation. But the same FOM weekly reports on what he calls “protest potential” in the scale of Russia. Including shares his views on the level of national readiness to any kind of protests.

People year after year, month after month, week after week asking the same wonderful question (“If in the near future where You live, held rallies, demonstrations opponents of the current government and its supporters, how are You likely to do?”), offering a choice of even more wonderful answers (“not support neither opponents nor supporters of the current government”; “go to the rally, a demonstration against the government”; “go to the rally, a demonstration in support of the government”, etc.)

Here’s the most recent scenario: “rally against the government” promise to leave 10% of respondents in “rally in support of the government” — 6%, and the intention not to support neither one nor the other misleading 53%. If the following FOM (and possibly the authorities) to take this talk seriously, then in each of the cities in a state of readiness to take to the streets are hundreds of thousands of people. However, they are ready, judging by the polls, for a long time, and in recent weeks no growth “protest potential” FOM fixed. At the end of this may published “protest”, the figures are even more modest than several months ago.

How does this relate to reality? And not necessary to relate. At this phase of life mirror survey services do not shows what happens or can happen.

Who will seriously answer such questions? Not to mention the fact that people out on the street, led by a sudden surge of emotions that can rarely anticipate.

And it is quite curious that the survey service carefully avoids the realities of our protests, generally not interested in how citizens look at typical situations that arise during and after them. After all, not everyone’s body is strong enough to withstand the blows of the Champions of order. And in spite of the successful struggle against poverty, there are still people for whom the penalty of thirty thousand, is a serious expense. There are those who are encumbered by family or business and has no leisure to easily serve a week or two under arrest.

So read the polls, but do not ask posterov more than they can give. Don’t expect them to predict the future. Life will always surpass the records of the survey of services.

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