It was after all Donald Trump who decided to withdraw from the nuclear deal in May of 2018, then replacing the JCPOA with his “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign, so what were the publicly stated reasons behind his withdrawal? First and foremost, the United States and its number one cheerleader for Iran sanctions Israeli PM Netanyahu, who accused Iran of violating the deal and heading towards a nuclear weapon. But what seemed to be the main issue of the US and Israel aside from Iran allegedly seeking to acquire nuclear weapons was what could be argued the most important issues pertaining to US-Israeli security and regional hegemony: Iran’s non-nuclear weapons developments and it’s regional alliances.
In a statement issued in January of 2018 by then-President Trump, what can be noticed is the focus placed on Iran’s backing of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, its alignment with the Syrian government, and its support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen. In addition to this, the speech focuses heavily on Iran’s weapons advancements and justifies the re-imposition of sanctions on that basis. Whilst the issue of a nuclear armed Iran could well be a concern for some, the fear of Iran’s regional influence and weapons technology makes for more legitimate concrete concerns for both Tel Aviv and Washington. Back in September, Israel’s Minister of Defense, Benny Gantz, delivered a speech claiming that “Terrorists from Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are receiving training on how to operate Iran-made drones in the Kashan Base north of Isfahan [Iran],” highlighting Israel’s greivances when it comes to Iran’s regional alliances.
According to Mohammed Marandi “the Israelis and Americans both know that Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon” and that Iran could have developed the weapon, if they wanted it, long ago. He believes that Iran’s nuclear program is being used by the United States to “hurt Iranians” and that the Americans and Israelis see themselves as “exceptional and beyond the rule of law”.
Yet, the United States and Israel don’t seem to be joking about their intention to use military action in the event that talks fall through to revive the deal, in Vienna. US military options have been drafted according to the head of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), General Kenneth McKenzie, who informed Time magazine of America’s intentions last November. Similarly, Israel has also threatened to strike Iran if the country isn’t prevented from developing nuclear weapons. The difference between the Americans and Israelis is, however, that Joe Biden is giving diplomacy a chance, whilst Bennett refuses to recognise any positive outcome from Vienna. In response to this, Marandi told me that “Threats in general are a violation of international law and the Israelis and Americans have carried out sabotage and murder, in Iran, all of these acts are terrorism, but that’s the nature of the United States, the Western empire and the Israeli regime.”
The likelihood of such Israeli or US strikes on Iran is debatable, with even Israeli defense officials telling The New York Times that this is not likely, but most certainly the Israeli side is not backing down in its quest to isolate Iran for strategic purposes. But even in the case of the nuclear deal of 2015 first reaching a point of success under the Obama administration, the power of the Israel lobby was shown to have been limited despite its unquestionable influence on other aspects of US foreign policy.
This is why the question of the prisoner issue is key. If it happens to be another significant hurdle used to derail the JCPOA talks, it’s important to know where this campaign came from. As noted above, Barry Rosen’s hunger strike campaign was responsible for introducing the Iranian prisoner issue into the popular discourse, with Rosen clearly being linked to the United Against Nuclear Iran group. UANI is not directly part of the Israel lobby in the United States, and despite claims of its close alliance, it is not completely clear as to whether Rosen’s actions were motivated in any part to directly complement the efforts of the Israel lobby, or if it just so happens to fall into line with their goals. In 2014, both UANI and AIPAC also worked on the same policy issue as leading influences in Washington against the JCPOA, but failed to achieve their shared outcome.
UANI, founded in 2008, has received – according to its publicly available funding data – the bulk of its financial backing from billionaire mega-donors, well known for their contributions to the Israel lobby, Sheldon and Miriam Adelson, along with precious metals investor Thomas Kaplan. Its co-founder James Woolsey was formerly head of the CIA under the Clinton administration, and its current CEO Mark Wallace was a UN ambassador under George W. Bush. Furthermore on UANI’s own website, named in its ‘Original Co-Founders and Former Advisory Board Members’ is Meir Dagan, formerly general director of the Israeli Mossad. Notably, in 2014 the US Justice Department moved to protect the files of UANI to not have them made public in the course of a defamation suit against UANI, which according to The New York Times sparked suspicions of a potential link between the US government, and/or other governments, and the anti-Iran group. What’s more, the organization is absent of Iranians in its leadership and openly associates with the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MeK), formerly designated as a terrorist organisation in the United States for attacks on US citizens until 2012, before it sought to target the current Iranian government for regime change. Tehran still describes it as a terrorist group.
FILE PHOTO. President Ebrahim Raisi. © AP Photo/Iranian Presidency OfficeUANI is undoubtedly closely interlinked with the inner circles of power in both Washington and Tel Aviv, but to prove direct state influence, like some analysts have attempted to do in the past, is nearly impossible. Despite this, it is important to highlight that UANI is in the Israeli and US neoconservative orbit when it comes to Middle East policy. Meaning that whether there is any direct link, the objectives of AIPAC and UANI on the Iran nuclear deal align. They advocate for a secure Middle East, which in their eyes is based upon the elimination of Iran’s influence and backing of groups they view as terrorist organisations, for the protection of US strategic interests and Israel’s direct security. Along with possible motives being politically driven, questions have been raised over the exact nature of billionaire Thomas Kaplan’s relationship with UANI, as a number of Kaplan’s investment operations have seen a crossover in employees with UANI. This included UANI CEO Mark Wallace, who controls mining ventures with Kaplan, through the Tigris Financial Group. Through investment, Tigris hopes to benefit from the appreciation in value of precious metals in the case of “political unrest in the Middle East”.
Despite the forces who seek to undermine the nuclear deal remaining very much active, there do seem to be positive indications of a coming agreement from the US side. This can be drawn from the fact that three negotiators, including the deputy leader of the US delegation Richard Nephew, have left the negotiating team. Nephew is notorious for being an advocate of hardline sanctioning tactics against Iran, and his presence as part of the Biden administration’s delegation caused a negative reaction from Tehran. Now that he is gone, it is possible that if the Biden administration is indeed seeking to hold to the president’s promise made during his 2021 campaign, to return to the deal, there is now more likelihood of this taking place due to hardline elements being purged on the US side. As the eighth round of talks temporarily froze, “it is important to understand that core political issues on all topics are still unresolved,” according to Western officials quoted by Politico. This being said, the resumption of talks this Tuesday will better indicate whether both sides are ready to engage meaningfully to address the remaining issues, or alternatively show that there are simply too many differences for the talks to succeed.
Although Rosen quickly chose to end his hunger strike, others seemed to be picking up the torch, with an Iranian-Brit held in Iran, Anoosheh Ashoori, hitting the headlines by taking up a hunger strike on the same day that Rosen ended his. On the issue of the prisoners, according to Reuters, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian had reportedly contacted his counterparts in Qatar to broker an agreement for the release of dual nationals held in Iranian detention. This indicates that the Iranians have not let the issue bog them down during the nuclear deal talks, but instead have sought to take advantage of the situation, that is, if the reports are in fact correct.
The outcome of the indirect Vienna talks between the United States and Iran will not only determine whether Tehran and the West will continue on their current collision course, but will also indicate the strength of the Israel lobby as well as pressure groups like UANI in Washington. In 2015, AIPAC was completely defeated upon the conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal, but what will the outcome of the talks be in 2022? This will largely come down to whether the United States and its European allies will demand Iranian concessions on issues not attached to Iran’s nuclear program, which the Iranian side has consistently refused to put on the table.
Robert Inlakesh
Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and currently works with Quds News. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’. Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47
Robert Inlakesh is a political analyst, journalist and documentary filmmaker currently based in London, UK. He has reported from and lived in the occupied Palestinian territories and currently works with Quds News. Director of ‘Steal of the Century: Trump’s Palestine-Israel Catastrophe’. Follow him on Twitter @falasteen47
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