What will happen with Russia in the near future.
Western sanctions today is very unpleasant for the Kremlin, but they are not catastrophic for the Russian economy.
The expert believes that the sanctions have a negative impact on investment and on economic growth, but this influence will have an impact only in the long term.
“Too large accumulated reserves: Russia’s public debt – 13% of GDP. Despite the fact that the average for developed countries – more than 100%. It seems that Russia has the smallest debt of all major countries in the world. And the reserves exceed all possible levels of adequacy several times what is considered normal for this size of the economy. The safety margin is too large, it cannot be changed simultaneously”, – he explained.
However, the expert expressed his confidence that sanctions are “just so” will be removed.
The Nekrasov believes that Russia will always be ready to go on any concessions for the lifting of sanctions: “the sanctions are obviously nearer the time when these concessions it will go. Just this moment is very far in time”.
The economist gave the example of Cuba, against which the US imposed sanctions in the late 50-ies.
“Fifty years have passed. Well, they have just now approached that state when they will be ready to make any concessions, because everything is bad,” – said the expert.
“I think now the world is moving faster, but I would say, rather, about a twenty-year horizon. I confidently say that five years, the regime will survive under any scenario, what would have happened in the world. Seriously, I think that, most likely, the margin of safety is measured by the horizon of 15-20 years, not 5-10” – said Nekrasov.
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