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Georgy Bovt about why the world quarantine may not be long

Георгий Бовт о том, почему всемирный карантин не может быть долгим

There are two news – good and bad. The good news is that the quarantine in our country is not going to last either before the end of the year or until the fall, and to weaken it will begin in early summer. I’m almost sure. May likely have to be deleted-reset out of life, to accept and to obediently stay at home, alas.

The bad news is that this time the victory over the coronavirus will not be achieved. The decision on phased removal of restrictions will be political. Dictated by economic considerations. Just because no country in the world, even the strongest will not be able to withstand the semi-quarantine.

I have still a nasty thing to say: a country which does not emit idle people and businesses significant economic (financial) assistance will not be able to withstand and shorter quarantine. Either politically or economically or even psychologically in any way. In this sense, Russia June (if we continue to keep people locked up) – this is what is called capacious word “edge”.

European countries have already indicated about the date when will gradually ease the restrictions from late April to mid-may. Among these countries, including Italy, urasawa more recently, the whole world the scope of its humanitarian catastrophe. And even Spain, until recently, who set records for the number of deaths per day. And, of course, countries with a much more disciplined and responsible population of Germany and Austria. And were not even given any e “ausvays”, was not forbidden to go outside for walks (but not more than two). Check from the German state for 5 million euros (and from the Austrian – in by citizens and entrepreneurs formulated request), the feat of the people to cooperate with the authorities and the manifestation of consciousness.


Anywhere there is no question that the infection was able to completely stop, it continues, although at different paces in different countries. However, the government realized that further simple threatens even greater catastrophe. So we need to give people hope that everything will end. Although in the same German factories in the ground and did not stop. And in Spain and France auto and other factories resume work after the Catholic Easter, although the number of deaths from the coronavirus still amounts to hundreds a day.

I recently spoke with a man living in America. Right after their President and “chief health officer” frightened terrible numbers, saying that if nothing is done, die to 2 million people, maybe more, and if you impose restrictions, it is possible to “get rid of” 200 thousands of deaths. It is more than 330 million people. “What a mess!” — I tried to sympathize, and received an unexpected answer: “There are the numbers one, in fact, to death do not scare.”
America is quite a cynical country, and it is able to consider “costs”. Now the same trump said that “60-65 thousand dead – it will be a great result.” “Costa’s”, began to be reduced.


The American stock market has recovered from the shock of mid-March, the entire “green”, digesting trillions of dollars, which he poured power. Well, ordinary citizens, with ordinary leave for two weeks in the year is a rarity, realized that too long a simple them does not promise anything good. Need to earn money to pay the loans for housing etc. thus paid the vast majority of US citizens (those living on lonely to 75 thousand dollars a year for a family of up to 150 thousand) 1200 dollars for adult nose, plus $ 500 per child (my companion with his wife and three children received into the Bank account automatically, without inquiries and requests, $ 3,900.) helped to smooth the anguish of isolation. However, almost anywhere, even in new York, was not complete. Exits from the house for Jogging, for example, is allowed. Left without work to this amount will additionally pay four months another $ 600 from the Federal government.

However, even the fabulously rich America can’t pay all indefinitely. And therefore there was “trump plan” on a three-phased easing of the quarantine. Amid already in different States revolt against the extension of the restrictions. The final decision, depending on the situation, will take the governors. The President of America they still almost nothing is banned and can not get to do very much too. Federation, you know. Governors-Democrats mostly do not want to “dance to the tune of red.” But the comrades in the party quickly heeded. For example, in Florida the first thing I did is opened the beaches and bike paths. Incidentally, in the list of “first wave” of the presidential recommendations, including cinemas, sports facilities (by the way, the same Florida number of sports competitions were recognized as “a vital business” that can’t be stopped, and before). Because it is a huge business. Already thinking how to resume all sorts of Championships, at least in front of empty stands. All these preparations, let us go to the background records for the number of deaths from the coronavirus.

In Europe, careful. For example, in Germany any public events (including theatres, concerts, etc.) will not resume until the end of the summer. In Austria, the deadline is closer. Apparently, not last role is played by considerations about the ability of the state to continue to pay for a simple individual industries.

Any weakening of quarantine now, of course, has its critics. However, I don’t dare to draw conclusions regarding what

the modern world is built essentially on a liberal ideology, today it has become a victim of its own humanism. According to which “every human life is the greatest value”. Therefore, mortality from new infection at the level of 3-4% of the patients have entered the world economy in a state of complete paralysis, total damage will be much greater than from the infection.

If in the 20-ies of XX century epidemic of “Spanish flu” and later in a number of countries polio has caused in response to a similar scale global quarantine measures, the Great depression of the early 30’s would seem on this background, a time of unprecedented prosperity. However, the epidemic of influenza then actually stopped, although it has claimed more lives than the First world war.

And now, under the pressure of catastrophic, comparable to the losses from world war II, economic losses humanity will again be forced to retreat a few decades ago, in his liberal humanism on the basis of more cynical calculations.

In comparing the “tear of the child” (because mom and dad got sick) and overdue mortgages, skaknuvshem in times of unemployment and other similar troubles I will inevitably lose.

Capitalism, which many are always in a hurry to once again bury in a time when there comes another “Achtung”, again cynical way find than dexterous people will be able to cash in. To nausea I can’t stand the glazed expression of androids-the optimists-Kocherov about the fact that “the crisis is a new opportunity.” But they always just right against his fellow rogues.

Increased demand for masks will trade masks, pumping panic. Manufacturers of masks (suspended) will achieve that wore them definitely as possible in as many places. Manufacturers of sanitizers become millionaires, like Steve jobs, who collected the first computer in the garage.

Millions of people in the world will find new jobs in the roles of those who will track the movement of infected or had contact with them. There a huge new industry – “crown business” — a volume in the tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars.

Even in the most democratic countries of Europe (France and Germany) are developing a dedicated mobile app to monitor the immune status, if in some “authoritarian China”. Already thought of the application onto the smartphone that your dry (coronavirus) coughing can fix the disease. Need to it is automatically called the team of nurses.

Tracking “coronavirus” to train service dogs. Google, Apple is ready to share with the authorities any personal data with geolocation for tracking infectious people. “Tourist country”, counting the losses will start, I am positive advertising campaign about the fact that they have every inch of the beach disinfected between chairs, partitions, staff immunized, only fly, rescue’s Charter. Turkey plans at the end of may to open the season. I think more to the point, Erdogan will call Putin. At the same time and on Syria poreshat.

One Arab airlines has already introduced compulsory rapid tests for coronavirus for passengers. Imagine someone else in this world is flying. It’s all of 10 minutes. I think something like this will become common practice, hardly will resume international flights and there will be massive tests. In every airport near the duty-free shops will appear, physicians, labs from priblatnennyi “company” or “FE”, and along the border for a quick deportation of patients. And what a happy hunting ground for insurers for insurance on “his own recognizance on the coronavirus”.

Testing the “crown” and all that is connected with it, has enormous potential for “sanitary capitalists”. We will see accredited Express laboratory at the visa application centres, and the analysis will become mandatory for visa. Especially if you develop tests for antibodies.

You can come up with a separate business on a voluntary infection with coronavirus and the rapid recovery from him (with the aim to obtain antibodies) in specially equipped medical institutions. Of course, paid for, and for VIPs separately. People are not going to save on having to get a “visa” in the ranks of the “pure people”. And what kind of business you can expand to create any “smart tracking system” at the level of cities, regions and entire countries! Yes, any road construction or improvement by comparison just nowhere near worth it. Well, and intelligence agencies to sit down: a skilled human tracking up to each bed is a longtime digital dream.

All these for someone attractive prospects will be even stronger push to have finally cast off the shackles of quarantine and to begin to explore these new horizons.

Already went information training. More and more research (and “research”) on the subject of what virus this is something clearly wrong. And there he de-in December the market in Wuhan, but earlier. So walking amongst us for a long time (it calms you?). And deaths supposedly comparable to ordinary flu. Still, the quarantine will not be saved, while the majority has not been ill. And finally, according to the “new Chinese data,” approximately 60-80% of infected COVID-19 there are generally no symptoms. Here it becomes quite unclear what we actually all went home!?

Finally, more evidence that even the most rigid quarantine does not have a decisive impact on the decline in the rate of infection, it only slightly reduces their number of deaths.

Pandemic will be another opportunity to “deal” with China, which is relatively stronger suspicions that the virus was invented in the laboratory of Wuhan and broke out accidentally. This can cause a drastic restructuring of many of the logistics and production chains in order to reduce dependence on a country that is not the first time launches the world dangerous infection, resulting with false statistics.

So maybe the conclusions about what Chinese social model will emerge from this pandemic the main winner, was premature.

Some people also will continue to “poke” the finger at Sweden, where they stubbornly refuse to impose strict quarantine measures. There at the end of last week for 10 million population (one in Moscow) became ill more than 13 thousand people died, about a thousand. In the Netherlands (17 million population) quarantine restrictions there are. And? 30.5 thousand cases and nearly 3.5 thousand deaths. In Finland ( population 5.5 million) became ill less than 3.5 thousand people, died more than 70 people. Thus, the situation in Sweden looks much worse than in Finland, but comparable to the Netherlands. “Much worse” is one and a half thousand deaths per 10 million people.

And at this moment, more and more, there are cynics who, wiping his “tears of a child”, if not out loud, say to myself, “is that all?! Yes I have a mortgage, car loan and business here will be covered, stop getting me savitribai”. Nobody is not trying on a ventilator (from which, as it turned out, more harm than good in this disease), preferring to think that “life goes on” and “new opportunities”. “World of filthy lucre” is known to be ruled by two God – Fear and Greed. And this tandem will rule forever.

© 2020, paradox. All rights reserved.

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