The lack of the usual cohesion in the actions of different branches of power has caused the experts perplexed. Resultant decisions of scientists was not surprised.
oduma on Tuesday almost became a place for discussion, and the President had to restore order personally: in any case, so it would seem. In the morning the leader of LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky made a proposal to hold early elections to the state Duma canceled direct election of the President, giving these powers to the state Council and Deputy Valentina Tereshkova initiated the amendment of the “zeroing” of presidential terms of Vladimir Putin. After it became known that the head of state personally come to the Duma to Express their attitude to the amendments to the Constitution. In a speech, which is now called historical, Putin said he did not support early elections to the state Duma, but is ready to approve the amendment of his right to be elected again in 2024, if this change approves the constitutional court.
Boris Kagarlitsky, Director of the Institute of globalization and social movements, candidate of political Sciences:
“It seems that takes a series of some meaningless gestures, like throwing people into a panic, or uncontrollable movements of the body that is in agony.
What power can win, forcing us to go to early elections, and in conditions of full-scale economic crisis, which in coming months will escalate? What’s the point? Win they can not do anything. They can only disrupt the situation.
If this is part of a plan — that is, to plunge the country into chaos, then again, need to see some kind of estimated output in the form of a, relatively speaking, “strong hand”, which then will put things in order etc. But in the current socio-political configuration is also not visible. So, in my opinion, we see that all possible political technology of the workpiece and simultaneously intrigue the summit of power superimposed on each other and begin to give such unexpected results, when decisions are made, whose meaning you do not understand or those promoting them, nor those who vote for them, or even those who are preparing them.
May be “blank” about the election of the President of the state Council, was available too. But, first, this proposal will not pass. Secondly, none of the proposals make sense, because they all change the exact opposite, for a matter of hours, sometimes minutes.
To evaluate it from the point of view of policy impossible. There are no strategic sense, as it makes no sense to Brownian motion. It can only observe and record, and the search for meaning in the movement of particles there is no need.
The same proposed “reset” of the presidential terms. Imagine: you have safely three and a half years, during which time you can prepare and organize the way you want. Especially when you consider that in Russia all serious is done very slowly. And suddenly you begin to organize this race. Well, the desire of some part of the ruling elite to leave Vladimir Putin’s forever too clear. Again, I am willing to believe that Valentina Tereshkova is not acting of himself, but from some of the team, who told her this is a great idea. But if these people want to stage a coup, then let the suit finally.
In the end, if tomorrow Putin will make a speech and say that “from this day I will be ruler of Russia for life, but also my children and grandchildren”, then most likely nothing will happen more disastrous than is happening now.
If you want to stage a coup — arrange, but if you don’t want, why these constant attempts to rock the boat one way, then in the opposite direction? I believe that this is due to the lack of controllability at the highest level.”
Ilya Graschenkov, Director of the Center for the development of regional policy:
“The proposal on early elections of the state Duma advanced the part of the elites, who understood that in case of transfer of power in the direction of the state Council will shaken the entire ruling elite, which includes, in particular, the state Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin. And then the “party of conservatives” decided to strike at the “model Council,” to put the Shah of the Kremlin administration, in fact, “bottom” initiating a vote for early dissolution of the Duma, the appointment of the new election and the nullification of presidential terms. In fact, the reaction of Vladimir Putin, who crossed out the idea of early elections, says that it was imposed on him discussion.
I see that the war continues, relatively speaking, the “party system liberals” and “party of conservatives” for the future and how they will balance the elite. The party that wants Putin to the rules for life and then, in the case of care, handed over the reins to his successor, does not diversify the power, today tried to install this “status quo”. Although an early election will not, not excluded a new initiative on the theme of the struggle for power.
It is clear that all these cobwebs called “transfer” solve two very earthly task. First: how to elect a loyal state Duma, if it falls, the level of confidence in the government. It is clear that it is possible to elect a more or less loyal LDPR, CPRF and “CP”, but it still is not a homogeneous “edinorosskih”, which can be the mad printer, even some submissive tool. And then there’s the ruble began to fall. If the rate falls to one hundred rubles per dollar, it will cause a new round of inflation, cuts in social programs, so there was an opinion that it is better now to hold the elections as voters are more neutrally tuned to power.
The second challenge is zeroing personally Putin’s terms. And we see that this certainly did. We see that Putin would be more comfortable to remain President, than to come up with some strange add-ons. At least, even if he is not going, in the end, to move, the main thing — that he had a free hand to the end of the options.
Here two main tasks, and all the rest is veiled an elite game.
Of course, to dissolve the state Duma, it is necessary to violate constitutional norms. But we realized that if you really want, you can all these rules be interpreted freely. The population anyway, and with experts in constitutional court can agree.
But the issue was that the system for early elections is not ready. No normal candidates. To recruit them in a hurry? But still it is necessary to hold elections of governors, elections Saxov. Have more than fifty elections in the country and the vote on the Constitution. If elections to the state Duma, it is very stressful for managers. So, I think that, weighing the desire to use has not yet lost the rating and possible fever, it was decided it is better to choose the Duma in more difficult conditions, but with a cool head than to re-elect her so suddenly.”
Maxim Zharov, the political scientist, the sociologist:
“The idea of early elections is directly linked to such schemes of the transit authorities, who are now trying to start early and make the political situation such that the Vladimir Putin with a particular scheme is agreed.
Early elections to the state Duma is the next stage of the operation of the transfer after the constitutional amendments. Accordingly, as we see today in the state Duma as soon as the idea came with the early elections, immediately made a counter-proposal to abolish Putin’s presidential terms. In my opinion, this confirms the theory that the whole game with the early elections is directly linked with the schemes of the transit of power after 2024.
I think the opinion about the fact that the ruling party would perform well in early elections, is wrong. Now “United Russia” is located in a semi assembled state. It is not clear the situation with the top leadership — who is it who obeys. What is the role of Dmitry Medvedev, some Andrei Turchak, and which the incumbent political unit of the presidential administration. How can the party directly communicates with the President — is not clear. In a perfect mess is a regional job. “EP” for early elections is not ready, and even today in the morning I saw message from the Deputy Secretary of the General Council of the party Sergei Perminov that in “ER” scenario of early election was not discussed.
Version of trying somehow to outrun the economic crisis, staging early elections to the state Duma this year, is not tenable. Moreover, if elections, as today offered Vladimir Zhirinovsky, took place on 20 September, the CPRF and the LDPR would get the votes and the mandates of deputies more than they have now, in the present state Duma”.
Dmitry Solonnikov, Director of the Institute for modern state development:
“Today, I had some strange ideas voiced in the state Duma: election of the President through the Council of state and early elections of the state Duma. MPs in General are notorious for strange ideas give to the surface. And it happens for several reasons. On the one hand, it may be a trial balloon to see reactions, and then to plan a real political moves. On the other hand, someone wants themselves louder to declare that the name was in the news. In this situation, I think it really was a trial balloon — will take place or not. The idea is that the current MPs to try to get re-elected again until it identifies a new political and economic realities in the country, is no serious wave of crisis and there is a chance that in a “blitzkrieg”, as the electoral campaign for six months, will be able to remain in their seats. That is, to change, without changing anything — this was the idea.
This was apparently not coordinated with the President and his administration, and probably with all other political forces in the country. The deputies of the state Duma, thinking, primarily, about keeping myself in their positions, at first it cheerfully supported. And after found out that the President does not agree with this initiative, as well cheerfully refused, not daring to speak out against the views of Vladimir Putin.
This is a continuation of previous positions. We saw last week, the deputies did not want to accept the amendment limiting their ability to own property abroad. This week, the Duma tried to spend the amendment, giving them the ability to quickly re-elected. This is the main, over what MPs are worried primarily about themselves and their future.”
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