Hot summer 2019 may develop into no less a hot political autumn. This will happen if the level of protest moods of Russians will remain at the current, very high level.
According to a recent survey by “Levada-center”, 27% of Russians ready to take part in protests against declining living standards, if any, will be held in their region.
We emphasize that the slightly less — 22%, can participate in protests with political than with economic demands. But it’s rare.
If we talk about the dynamics of protests in the perceptions of citizens, 63% believe that they became more and only 25% believe the opposite.
The number of Russians satisfied with the power is reduced, sure, 51% of respondents. No, more of them claim 11% of the respondents.
Among the protests, the most famous of excitement of citizens in Yekaterinburg because of the construction in the Park, “junk” protest in Arkhangelsk, as well as the conflict over the transfer of the border in Ingushetia.
The results of the measurements we have explained to the leading sociologist “Levada-center” Denis Volkov.
In my opinion, those who are willing to protest against declining living standards (27%) and those who are willing to come out with political demands (22%) is about the same people.
“SP”: — Why the numbers comparable? Economic protest is, as a rule, much broader political…
— Most of the protests related, perhaps with some social things. I don’t think people know much about where economic, where political reasons.
The politicization of any protest, including economic, occurs when not met the demands of the protesters. If the authorities are in negotiations, the more concessions, the protest quickly fades. Unless of course the authorities have the resources. Because requirements can always.
If the government run situation, then any protest will be political. Although at first everyone will say that are not politically motivated.
“SP”: — Sometimes the protesters are afraid of the word “politics”…
— Not that I’m afraid… is It some kind of request for negotiations. They say they are not against the government, but simply want to agree to solve a specific problem. That is, people around realize that if there is a desire to resolve the problem, it is better not to aggravate.
“SP”: — Indeed, much depends on resource power. If in Yekaterinburg, the construction could be transferred to another point without much damage, in the construction of a landfill in Cheese just will not shift, as in any Russian region will not find people willing to take Moscow garbage…
— Yes, this is a serious problem that requires a restructuring of the whole system with junk. At the click of your fingers it will not solve.
“SP”: — If the government could not solve the problem with the polygon immediately, it should at least enter into negotiations with the people and to announce the measures to be taken. To reassure people…
— As I understand it, the authorities in many parts of protest simultaneously implement multiple strategies. These are some concessions, as would talks on the problem itself and at the same time repression. Optional planting — can be large fines for organizing rallies that we see in Yekaterinburg. But against political activists that are able to host, Horny and criminal cases. Moreover, cleaned them regardless of ideology.
“SP”: — is There a connection between foresight of protests in the region and willingness to personally participate in them?
— These indicators begin to rise, when around people of the protests getting bigger. Now there are three regions that people are more or less isolated: Ekaterinburg, Arkhangelsk oblast, and Ingushetia. But overall not so much. Much more protests happened during the adoption of the pension reform. The shares might be small, but there were many. This period was the peak of readiness to take personal involvement.
Also affects the willingness to take a personal part in the protests, the volume of the lighting stock.
According to political analyst Konstantin Kalachev, the politicization of the protest in Russia is inevitable.
— Obviously, the answer to the question of sociologists and real action are not the same. Sociologists only captures people’s willingness to boldly reply that they are ready to protest. But some of those who say that he is ready to go out, actually will not come out under any circumstances. It’s bravado. But among the undecideds, those who say that it is not ready, there are real rebels. Therefore, these surveys are primarily interested in dynamics.
I was not ready to participate in rallies, but when it was announced in Moscow, the renovation, and I live in the five story building, was among the organizers of the rally against the renovation and went with them. Why? Because it touched me directly. So it is necessary to close, for example, the city-forming enterprise, as people will immediately excite.
“SP”: — is noteworthy that people expect almost equally as protests with economic demands (26%), and political (24%). Moreover, in those and other ready to attend a comparable proportion of people — 27% and 22%. But usually political protest is much narrower economic…
— But this is interesting. It shows that attitudes are changing. According to Lenin, the economic crisis turns into social, social protest in the political is a traditional story. But now we live in a different society. Not all about just the economy. There is such a term as electoral fatigue, fatigue from the tenure of the government, that elections solve nothing.
There is a request for change, which may not be associated with the life situation of people. So, among my personal friends, the wealthy, critics of the government are much higher than among people with incomes below average. But my mother-in-law, a pensioner, a staunch loyalist, despite a pension of 14 thousand rubles.
“SP”: — the Story of a garbage landfill in Cheese, in spite of the domestic like character, rather heavily politicized. There clearly is opposition to Moscow’s…
— Of course. Irritation accumulates. It is obvious that people understand what the problems of the current system — federalism we have the fake, formal, does not exist. In fact, we live in a unitary state. They may not be supporters of federalization, and do not even know this word, but supporters of decentralization in making decisions. Believe that some issues were resolved on the ground, not in the capitals.
It is possible to do politics without understanding that this is politics. As Moliere: you can speak prose without knowing that it is prose.
“SP”: — What are the threats to the authorities create these moods?
Is a protest vote. It’s secret, there is no tie and claims will not show.
Identified sociologists 27% are willing to take a personal part in the protests is, first and foremost, a resource of opposition parties and candidates. Even more than 27%, because the protest vote easier. Most likely, it will manifest through elections. So growth is the result of “United Russia” is not expected. Rather, the contrary.
How in the Komi Republic citizens perceive the protest against the construction of a waste dump Cheese, we told the press-Secretary of the local branch of the Communist party Valery Mikhailov.
— We deal with this problem for almost a year. So much time to build a polygon in Cheese (Lies closer to Syktyvkar than in Arkhangelsk — ed.). At first people were saying that the problem is environmental and no need to involve politics here. For example, at the previous meeting on 7 April, which was also one of the largest in Syktyvkar (up to 3 thousand people). But now, after the recent huge rally, nobody talks like that anymore. People began to understand that the problem is primarily political registration. And a lot of people began to accuse it of Putin.
“SP”: — And why the President?
— Because Putin himself declared on the Federal TV channel that he was aware of this problem and with all with whom we can speak. But construction continues! And continues at an accelerated pace. There by helicopter because protesters blocked all the roads, delivered fuel. Plus there brought a lot of guards chase constantly Resguardo. Many activists on Cheese fine. So people are very angry and the culprit believes the President.
“SP”: — That is, signs that the Federal centre “switched back” yet?
They say that on June 15 it would suspend construction in order to obtain all the necessary documents: Roskomnadzor, ecological expertise, to hold public hearings, etc.
“SP”: — So they can get the documents. Its hand Lord. Residents would not so, but because in principle I don’t want in front of them was the Moscow dump…
Yeah, and the rally was mentioned. To documents is impossible, because no sane competent authority will not give permission to build a landfill in 20 kilometers from the settlements, and even in marshland. Plus there is a branch of the pipeline. Legitimate hearings in such a situation is impossible.
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