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“Figure,” Medvedev turned out to be a dud

«Цифра» Медведева оказалась пустышкой

The government of the Republic of Bashkortostan together with the Ministry of industry and trade of the Russian Federation and the Union of machine builders of Russia organized the Russian industrial forum, which will be held in late February in Ufa. For a big business meeting invite “captains of business” and the leading officials responsible for the development of the real sector of the economy.

The main question that I plan to discuss in the forum, is: “the Problem and specifics of the industrial revolution 4.0 in Russia.” It is expected that this event and the accompanying exhibition will be attended by representatives of about 3000 enterprises from over 40 of subjects of the Russian Federation.

Ten years ago, the Fourth industrial revolution has moved from the offices of the theorists into the real sector of the economy. The current Medvedev government is also puzzled by this topic and announced the beginning of universal digitalization. Considered even a potential effect, which should ensure the annual increase of national GDP by 4% until 2030.

To reach these targets, 7 may 2018, President Putin signed a decree “On the national goals and strategic objectives development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024,” which provides the growth of internal costs for the development of the digital economy no less than three times.

Note that many advanced economies have already undergone considerable development in the framework of the Fourth prerevolution. So there is already the first successful experience, respectively, defined losers. Already today it is clear that the introduction of digital technologies in the manufacturing industry requires a high skill management and self-sufficient industrial technologies. Without this the ambitious goals will not be realized, although enormous sums are spent.

We will remind, the program “Digital economy” approved by the decree of the government of the Russian Federation from 28.07.2017, No. 1632-R. According to the document, digital technologies include: artificial intelligence, big data and nanotehnologii and the distributed registry, quantum technologies, new production technologies, industrial Internet, robotics and components sensing, wireless technologies, technology, virtual and augmented realities.

All this is true, but there should be target the signs, which adhere to the major economies of the world. And they-the Cabinet of Ministers Medvedev and indicated. Here are some of them.

First of all, we are talking about increasing national productivity through automation and robotics by 45-55%. Next is to reduce material and logistics costs by 10-40%, reducing to 50% the time period of bringing new products to market, and improving the accuracy of business forecasts up to 85%.

The main tool in addressing these challenges are the robots and the control system. Say today there are no technical obstacles, which the robot would not be able to remove, say, the garbage on the streets, sweeping parks, cook in restaurants, to be cashiers in supermarkets, to service hotel rooms. Already there are studies showing even robotic bricklaying, digging complex trenches, collection of vegetables, fruit and grapes, not to mention the unmanned taxi.

Meanwhile, the replacement of production and auxiliary workers with robots and machines, which are essential for the competitive development of any country, including ours, will lead to unemployment to half of the current labour market. That will require the authorities to create vast numbers of new jobs, which — most importantly — can’t be automated. In the West, and China’s rush to stake out these labor niches at the expense of researchers, designers and developers of new technologies. However, even the most optimistic estimates, 10% of the current workers will be left out of life.

Thus, even the priorities in the program of “digitalization” in Russian is incorrect, because the money initially to invest in those sectors that provide a quick “exhaust”, then to have to have a means to solve more complex tasks in the development of, for example, artificial intelligence. By the way, a key front in the trade war between the US and China is in the field of robotics, without which it is impossible to produce high-quality and cheap goods with high added value.

According to the study edition of the World Ceo on the state of automation and robotization the leading countries of Southeast Asia is significantly superior to the rest of the world, and the United States are far behind from them. These explains the huge trade imbalance between the Asian “dragons” and the first economy with the machine for printing dollars. Whatever it was, but America is making significant steps in this direction, that is not true of Russia.

Worldwide do not question the thesis that robots are a key equipment to improve productivity. According to the International Federation of robotics (IFR), the global average for industrial robots per 10 thousand production workers increased from 66 units in 2015, up to 74 in 2016 and the year 2017 to 85. That is, the growth rate is 15% per year.

In 2017, Korea became the world’s largest robotic economy with 710 robots per 10,000 workers, Singapore was second with 658 robots, Germany was third with 322 robots, Japan is fourth with 308, Sweden is fifth with 240. The United States finished in seventh place with 200 industrial robots. In the end, the growth of labor productivity in the United States since 2007 (when it really began to show itself the Fourth propranolola) is delayed by half the Japanese figure. By the way, this is the very high skill of control of the real sector of the economy mentioned above.

Among the studied countries, Russia and India ranked last — 4 and 3 robots per 10,000 workers respectively. If to call things by their proper names, rating IFR put our country on a professional ridicule.

It is important to note that there are economic arguments for the introduction of robots and fully automated factories. It turns out that leaders are countries with high wages, while lack of quality manpower. In the United States, among other things, migration has become a real brake on development, as the overseas business has cheap labor. We have also a pension reform creates a worse condition that actually block the Fourth prerevolution and, figuratively speaking, throw the country into the stone age.

Thus, the government’s arguments about the necessity of raising the retirement age are the usual propaganda only in order to justify its zero qualifications. The idea is that the President needs to put the Cabinet Medvedev thresholds digitalization, for example, to reach at least 100 robots per 10 thousand workers in 2020. Not achieved — a kick in the ass.

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