The Ministry of Finance presented the main parameters of the Federal budget on 2020-22 years.
According to the draft, which is published on the website of the Department and until September 30th goes for approval to the state Duma, in the next three years the government intends to reduce tax burden on oil companies and dramatically increase fees from all sectors of the economy (.doc).
In 2020, the Ministry of Finance intends to collect in the budget 20,363 trillion roubles to 410 billion roubles more than this year. In 2021-m the planned growth of incomes another 883,6 billion rubles, and in 2022 – in extra 811,7 billion rubles.
New arrivals, according to the budget, will fall entirely on the shoulders of the non-oil sector of the economy. Fees oil and gas taxes next year it is planned to reduce by almost 5%, or 373,2 billion (up to 7,472 trillion rubles).
Despite a steady rise in the subsequent two years – 258,4 billion roubles in the budget of the 2022 money from the sale of hydrocarbons will be less than in the budget-2019 (115 billion rubles).
In terms of the size of the economy the tax burden for the oil and gas industry will fall by almost 17% – from 7.2% to 6% of GDP.
The reason its large benefits, which has made the oil and the expected lower prices for oil and gas, explains the Finance Ministry. In the project laid the barrel 55-57 dollars and almost a 20 percent collapse in the price of Russian gas in Europe (with a 226 to 179 dollars per thousand cubic meters).
A revenue shortfall, the government plans to compensate for taxes non-oil taxes in three years, the budget should collect an additional of 2.22 trillion rubles from businesses and population, which indirectly pays the duties, excises and VAT included in the price on all sold goods and services.
According to the plan of the Ministry of Finance in the next budget needs to collect 12,89 trillion and non-oil taxes – 783,9 billion rubles more than in 2019 2021-22 gg laid For further growth – on 676,4 and 760,5 billion respectively.
In terms of GDP, the tax burden on non-oil business next year will be even more than in 2019, when the VAT increase sent the economy into a stupor and practically stopped its growth (0.7% for six months). In 2020, the Finance Ministry intends to withdraw in the form of VAT, excise duties, profit tax and customs duties 11.4% of GDP, as against 11.2 per cent.
In the 2021-22 biennium, this figure is slightly reduced to 11.1% of GDP. However, real relief for business will not. It is only the redistribution of financial flows, recognized by the Ministry of Finance: excise duties on petroleum products will be gradually transferred to the local level, settling in the budgets of the Russian Federation instead of the Federal Treasury.
Almost half of the additional fees – 989 billion of the 2.2 trillion – the Ministry of Finance intends to collect in taxes on domestic production (domestic VAT, excise taxes and profit tax).
46.5 billion over three years is planned to increase revenues excise taxes on the import of 131.3 billion in import duties.
As a result, the budget will remain in surplus throughout the 3-year horizon, despite the sharp increase in costs – to 1.189 trillion rubles next year to 1,141 trillion in 2020 and a further 1,138 trillion in 2021-m.
“The Federal budget for the years 2020-2022 is stimulatory for the economy”, – assured the Ministry of Finance: expenditure in relation to GDP are rising, despite a significant slowdown in the global economy and the unstable situation on the world energy market.
To call this budget a stimulating language does not turn, argues chief economist at ING in Russia and CIS Dmitry Dolgin: costs in 2020 grow by 1.2% of GDP, and fees from the oil and gas sector of 1.4% of GDP due to the VAT increase and improve the collection.
“Overall, the draft budget will continue to focus on maintaining macro stability, says Dolgin. – A stimulation of the growth of GDP is possible in the case of a direct easing of the budget rules or the investment Fund in excess of 7% of GDP, but details on this matter has not yet appeared.”
© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.