Prices will fall gradually.
The depreciation of the dollar in Ukraine will lead to gradual reduction of prices for basic goods, however, will happen not earlier than in late summer 2017. In the near term, buyers can only rely on cheaper seasonal produce.
The formal reason for reducing the prices of goods and services is now, because the dollar, which in Ukraine is tied most components of production costs (raw materials, fuel, etc.) significantly lost its position.
In January, the value of American currency on the interbank market was close to 28 UAH/$, but from the beginning of April, the hryvnia started to strengthen, and now the dollar is worth approximately 26,5 UAH/$.
However, although the dollar continues to decline for more than a month, prices in Ukrainian shops not go down in a hurry, and in some cases, even continue to grow.
According to experts, one of the main reasons for the consistently high price tag is raising the minimum wage to RS 3200 and a shortage of skilled labour in Ukraine.
“Businesses do not have enough manpower, he is forced to raise wages to attract staff. Naturally, people have more money, and they go with them to the stores,” says economist Eric Naiman.
Despite the strengthening of the hryvnia, keep prices prevailing among entrepreneurs devaluation sentiments. In most of the products sellers continue to lay up to 30 UAH/$. Besides, for a long time the business was forced to operate at a loss due to the strongly falling of course, but many exporters have lost a lot of money in the course of devaluation in 2014-2015, and are now trying to compensate for the losses.
Moreover, prices may fall behind the rate of only late — after was completely sold out the previous batch of product, and a new one purchased already at a lower rate.
Moreover, there must be confidence that in the future the rate will not rise, because traders in current prices lay idle cost of the next batch. That is, the current batch of product they need to sell at that price, enough to purchase the next one and still have something in the form of profit.
“In countries where there is ample opportunity in insurance exchange differences (exchange spots, porady, futures), the risk of rate changes is removed. In Ukraine this is almost there. And since the fall we have almost always begins the rise of the dollar, traders already expect and lay in the current prices exchange rate risks in the second half of the year,” said financial expert Ivan Nikitchenko.
However, with the approach of summer, the Ukrainians can count on a decrease in prices for seasonal products. Other products on the depreciation of the dollar is not going to react.
First, a slight depreciation of the dollar will “eat” has risen in price fuel, electricity and housing and communal services as a whole. Besides, your contribution makes a world market.
But, according to former Deputy head of the National Bank Yaroslav Soltis, sellers still must respond to the depreciation. Ukrainians will see the new price tags towards the end of summer practically all goods, including, and contraband: clothes, shoes, appliances.
“Prices in the U.S. declined, and therefore the prices of goods purchased at the higher rate shall be counted on 26 UAH/$”, — he said.
In turn Nikitchenko added that if in the world markets there will be growth in oil prices, Ukraine also needs to become cheaper and gasoline by 3-5%.
According to analysts, until mid-August, the hryvnia will be stable or even slightly strengthened to 25-26 UAH/$. But at the end of the year the rate is still set at 27 UAH/$ — beginning in the fall, traditionally, the hryvnia is falling in price.
“And in case of failure of the pension and land reforms, we can go out on the course 29-30 UAH/$ at the end of the year. If a crisis in the U.S. economy or China, then the course just “fly” up to 35 UAH/$,” — said Naiman.
Experts note that in such a scenario, the price tags will inevitably crawl up. As is known, the value of goods respond to the increase in rate almost instantly. At the same time, in the case of strengthening the hryvnia prices, in the best case, do not change.
We will remind, in the beginning of April, the dollar in Ukraine has exceeded the psychological mark of 27 UAH/$ by the end of the month he already lost 47 cents and as of April 28 cost 26,55 UAH/$.
© 2017, paradox. All rights reserved.