Russian supplies of LPG could not directly trigger the price crisis, experts say.
Russian supplies of liquefied gas to Ukraine could not directly trigger the price crisis as was pegged to world quotations, as confirmed by the customs.
This was in an article written by the leaders of the “Consulting group A-95” Sergey and Artem Kuyun.
The authors point out that the enormous growth of the Ukrainian market of liquefied natural gas provided by Russia, which covers the growing appetite for cheap fuel. In 2016, the share of Russian export in imports was 71%, and in total consumption is about 50%.
According to experts, may 2017 the only direct exporter of liquefied natural gas to Ukraine was “Rosneft”, the resources which sells Swiss Proton Energy Group S. A. Its head of Nisan Moses uverzhdaet that 36 thousand of the 40 thousand t sells long-term formula-based contracts tied to quotations of the Agency “Argus”.
“Our margin is fixed, to increase it we can’t. In August, when the domestic market, the wholesale cost of gas exceeded $ 1100./t, we supply LPG to our partners — the largest retail networks of Ukraine — an average of 635 USD./t subject to the excise tax and VAT”, — said Moiseev.
According to him, the Ukrainian subsidiary of “middle of the drawno Ukraine” in August, will get about 2 thousand tons of gas, its market share will be 1.5%.
“Directly to the Russian supply could not cause the price crisis as was pegged to world quotations, and this is confirmed by customs data (see Fig. 4). In addition to minimum prices, the Russian volume is the only import supplies, with whom everything is clear and in terms of volumes and in terms of prices. Whether the gas and how much from other areas is unknown”, — experts state.
“If you look, the President and politicians, and some traders have agreed to the fact that he was unhappy with Russia’s behavior. “Now Ukrainian companies are not free to buy gas from Russian companies, excluding Rosneft. It is a monopoly!” — complain about opposition politicians, in a strange way repeating the rhetoric of individual traders. The President has called Russia’s behaviour as an element of a hybrid war. However, Russian volumes remained virtually unchanged (369 THD. MT in seven months of 2017, vs 395 thousand tons), but due to the growth of the market, their share fell from 71% to 58%. It would be better if supplies from Russia were growing up? We are at war or trade?”, – the article says.
At the same time, the authors argue that the sharp increase in prices of liquefied petroleum gas in August due to the influence of several important factors, particularly the current situation in the market and logistical problems.
Ukrainian prices for liquefied natural gas in August 2017 peaked in the entire history of observations. For the month LPG has risen in price at the pump in half, and the wholesale price has doubled (30000 UAH/ton, or about $ 850./t without taxes).
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