Experts on the global economy made a forecast that a new crisis will come 2020. Data analysis say that it will last longer than in 2008 and will also be more disastrous. According to economists, the crisis spread and the Russian Federation.
The global stock market and the world Bank reported a record slowdown in the economy. Experts outlined the possible causes of a new global economic crisis, which will have implications for the Russian Federation.
What will be the cause of the global crisis in 2020, according to experts
Economists assume that the cause of the crisis of 2020 will be a lot of factors, the totality of which will affect the world economy. In the course of a trade war between the US and China has increased customs duty, which expected slowdown in annual GDP growth in the world. As other factors is a drop in demand for hydrocarbons and the formation of bubbles in the stock markets.
New IMF chief Kristalina G. reports that the economic slowdown in the world reached record highs, which means the emergence of corporate debt in the event of a collapse. There is a risk of default in the amount of 19 trillion dollars.
The IMF noted the negative consequences of trade wars, in which there is no winner. This situation threatens the United States with the collapse of the exchanges, what the country may be a new Great depression, which was in the 30-ies of XX century.
Experts point out the fact that if the forecast about the global financial crisis will come to pass, then the consequences will be set and the Russian Federation. In this regard, would have to bring down the ruble exchange rate in order to fill the country’s budget. As a result, will increase the pressure on the Russians, as well as on the business, what the population will continue to Peter out.
Russian experts predict an optimistic future for the economy of the Russian Federation
In October 2018, Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev gave an interview about the economy, which talked about the invincibility of markets. According to him, power is a peaceful haven, where budget deficit and high public debt. In this regard, during inflation the country has achieved macroeconomic airbag.
This position was supported by analysts from Russia who say that Russia will be able to resist during the global crisis, as it has international reserves of 500 billion dollars. Economists said that Russia’s GDP in 2019 and 2020 low and will range from 1% to 2%, but it is, in their opinion, is the first and last negative point.
The only problem for the Russian market can be a threat from the outside. Analyst Alexander Razuvaev has named two possible reasons that may negatively affect the Russian economy.
The first reason is the threat of a large-scale armed conflict in the middle East, where the United States Alliance with Saudi Arabia can start a war with Iran. The second reason named as a possible recession that will ruin stock indices oil and gas industries.
What will happen to Russia, if there was world economic crisis in 2020
Implications of the crisis for Russia will be identical to last, which was observed in 2008-2009. This means stopping industrial production, the weakening of the ruble relative to the dollar currency by 20%, and also began massive layoffs from jobs.
Oil prices will start to fall, that the country’s budget will decrease. In connection with this is collapsed, the ruble, in order to fill the coffers of the state. Also there will be a significant decline in investment on the stock exchanges of the Russian Federation.
Thus, the burden of the crisis will fall on the shoulders of ordinary citizens, which will decrease the quality of life and well-being, increase tax rates for the Russians.
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