The next month and a half, the rate will be stable
The dollar has fallen three months in a row. Since the beginning of the year exchange rate strengthened by more than 6%. As of Monday June 26 the official exchange rate set at the level of 26.03 UAH $ . In Bank offices you can buy the dollar on average for 25,89 UAH $.
Experts told about the reasons for the long-term strengthening of the national currency and when the dollar will go up again.
The strengthening of the hryvnia in the first half of the year traditionally contributed to the seasonal factors. On the one hand in the spring and summer, importers, a decrease in business activity. On the other hand, aktiviziruyutsya farmers, which ensure the inflow of export proceeds and stable sales volumes on the interbank market.
“Last year, Ukrainian agrarians got the record crop size, this factor still affects the currency market. Their active sales will continue to bring stable revenues to fall”, – said Konstantin Fastovets, an analyst of investment company Adamant Capital.
The situation on world markets for Ukraine was not always favorable. However, while seasonal factors are holding back the losses from reduction of prices on main export products.
“Since the beginning of the second quarter, wheat prices decreased by 0.3%, barley – 6.8%, corn – rose 1.1%, sunflower oil – by 2.3%. The price of iron ore has fallen by 29%, metallurgical products – by 5%”, – says Andrey Shevchishin, a senior analyst at ForexClub.
The excess of foreign currency is also observed in the cash market. In may the population sold $ 805 million and bought a $ 356 million And YTD net purchase of foreign currency by banks reached $982 million Such statistics partly provided cancellation YTD 2% pension levy on transactions for the purchase of foreign currency. According to the NBU, in may, the average daily sales of foreign currency exceeded $40 million, is more than twice more than in the same period last year.
The downtrend in the dollar has allowed the regulator without pressure on the foreign exchange market to replenish their reserves and to ease its restrictions. From the beginning of 2017, the net purchase of currency by the National Bank exceeded $ 1 billion, and foreign exchange reserves increased by 13.4%.
With regard to market liberalization, over the last month, the regulator has canceled a number of administrative measures for legal entities and natural persons.
Earlier, the national Bank has facilitated the withdrawal of foreign investors, and simplified the work of companies involved in international trade. Last week, the NBU has allowed the companies to carry out own foreign exchange transactions on a “forward” without restrictions on the group of the Classifier of foreign currencies, term and transaction type.
Also, the national Bank lifted restrictions on currency exchange transactions on the interbank foreign exchange market for individuals.
“Recent changes in the rules of operations on conditions “forward” – definitely a step in the right direction, but they are not too will affect the magnitude of this market. The demand for currency in connection with the cancellation of a number of restrictions will increase, but this is no tragedy, because the proposal still prevails. In the fall, there will be attempts to strengthen the dollar, but if a favorable situation on external markets will not change dramatically, special risks for the hryvnia market participants do not see”, – said Sergey Kurilenko, member of the Supervisory Board of the Bank Globus.
Bankers believe that the positive dynamics in the foreign exchange market will lead to further easing by the NBU.
“The trend is very strong hryvnia within 26 UAH $ in the coming months will continue, and that this fact will allow the regulator and then gradually pursue a policy of liberalization of the market”, – says Oleg Kurinnoy, Director of Treasury Bank Credit Dnepr.
Closer to autumn the strengthening of the hryvnia may become due to the deterioration of the situation on the commodity markets. The course may reflect delayed adverse effects of the blockade ORDO. Before the heating season aktiviziruyutsya importers that traditionally lead to market corrections.
In addition, the budget in 2017 provides for a weighted average annual rate of 27.2 UAH $. The current rate is lagging behind budget by almost 4%, the yield on the government forecast envisages the inevitable appreciation of the dollar. Market experts believe that the strengthening of the hryvnia has already reached their peak levels in August, the course stabiliziruemost and go into a phase of devaluation.
“We believe the next month and a half the course will be hold in the range of 26-26,5 UAH/$. In the second half of August, the course will move to marks 27-27,2 UAH $, and the fall will move in the range of 27-28,5 UAH/$”, – says Andrey Shevchishin.
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