Rate rise to the end of the year.
In Ukraine again began to rise in price dollar. Since the beginning of week the course of his cash sales were up by more than 20 kopecks, reaching 26,86 UAH/USD. Most economists and financial experts predicted that long as it is necessary to fill the budget, excise duties and import VAT we have charged in the currency. And insistently say about the course at 28-28,5 UAH/USD by the end of the year.
As explained to us, the President Ukranalittsentra Alexander Ohrimenko, at the current exchange rate of the dollar at 26.5 UAH, it will increase by 1 UAH increases the amount of revenue from duties on excisable goods (fuel, alcohol, transport) by 4%.
“If last year for the year gathered into the Treasury 35 billion through excise taxes, in the current only at the expense of the course can be obtained at 1,3—1,5 billion UAH more — calculated Okhrimenko. — More higher will be the revenue from import VAT, here the increase in the budget will amount to UAH 10 billion. If the hryvnia does not drop, the Treasury this money will nedobirayut. And then there are taxes on exporters that can sell abroad more goods than the cheaper hryvnia, as our products become more competitive”.
At the same time Okhrimenko forecasts that the dollar will rise by the end of the year to more than UAH 27. According to him, the current temporary spike rate caused by the market entry of the large buyer — “Naftogaz” — which is the currency needed to purchase gas to topstone (to less spending of reserves from vaults. — Ed.).
“And as soon as “Naftogaz” will cease the purchase of currency (we are talking about approximately $ 100 million), the rate will go back down,” — said Okhrimenko.
It does not agree with the senior analyst “Forex club Ukraine” Andrew Shevchishin: “By the end of December the dollar will gradually rise and will be in the range 27,5—28,5 UAH. Small fluctuations (on 29 and 30 COP.) is expected, since they depend on the inflow and outflow of foreign currency on the interbank market, therefore strengthening the hryvnia are of short duration. But the national Bank will not allow a rapid devaluation of the hryvnia and the panic in the cash market — as soon as the rate exceeds 27 UAH/USD, the regulator immediately partially sell the appreciated currency which was redeemed at the rate 26-26,2 UAH on the interbank market when there was an excess of currency, to capitalize on this and at the same time keeping the further leap of course.”
Bankers are also confident that the stock will rise, assuming it is the agreed policy of the Cabinet of Ministers and the national Bank. For this reason, the national Bank does not go with currency interventions in the interbank market, waiting for the dollar will rise to more than UAH 27.
“Included market mechanism the implementation of paragraph of the Memorandum with the IMF on the average annual rate of 27.2 UAH/$, — explained to us the lions. Regulator in December, will gradually increase the rate, at first not selling the currency when it is in deficit on the interbank market, then stabilizes the rate of sales, while in several doses will not finish it by the end of December to 28 UAH/$”.
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