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Earth can turn into a huge greenhouse – scientists

Земля может превратиться в огромную теплицу, - ученые Researchers are concerned about climate change.

Scientists have found that the average temperature on Earth may rise by 3-4 degrees, even if the humanity will carry out the Paris agreement on the issue of climate change.

The temperature exceeds the average for the last 1.2 million years. And the changes will trigger other irreversible processes.

Currently, the average global temperature of the planet one degree higher than pre-industrial times (the mid-nineteenth century). The Paris agreement in 2015, suggests that limiting greenhouse gases will stop the temperature rise.

Will Steffen from the Australian national University and his colleagues evaluated the risk of so-called “scenario of the Earth-greenhouse” in which the Global sea level will exceed 10-60 meters current.

“Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activity is not the only factor that determines the Earth’s temperature. Our study suggests that anthropogenic warming to two degrees Celsius can run other system processes, which can be further warming even if we cease to emit greenhouse gases,” said Steffen, whose words are press service, the Stockholm resilience centre (SRC).

The authors discuss 10 natural processes of positive feedback (positive feedback means that the processes themselves are evolving as warming and reinforce it). These include the melting of permafrost and Arctic sea-ice, release of methane hydrates from the ocean floor, the disappearance of tropical forests and forests of the Northern hemisphere, and other factors.

“Our analysis shows that the Earth may be approaching to planetary threshold, breaking which, we will be on the fast track to much warmer conditions – “Earth-greenhouse”. It’s hard to influence the process,” noted the authors.

Scenario “Earth-greenhouse” is fraught with the destruction of the greater part of coral reefs and their ecosystems, risk of coastal flooding and adverse consequences for agriculture throughout the world. Not yet clear whether the warming by two degrees, as suggested by the Paris agreement, a new climatic equilibrium in which the climate will remain stable, or the temperature increase will lead to uncontrollable processes of feedback and further warming, scientists say – according to them, the risk must be assessed as soon as possible.

To avoid the scenario “Earth-greenhouse” that mankind need not just to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also actively take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by growing forests and special technologies for capturing and converting CO2. In addition, you may need even technology of geoengineering – directional influence on the Earth’s atmosphere, for example, in order to reduce its heating from the Sun.

In addition, such attempts may affect different hemisphere of the planet, and stop the artificial control of the climate is also fraught with some dangers.

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