For 9 months the net inflow into Russia of foreign currencies reached 26.6 billion dollars is 73% more than a year ago.
However, simultaneously and with greater speed started to increase outflow of private capital. The accumulated result, by the beginning of October it had doubled and reached 21 billion dollars.
From the monthly statistics of the Central Bank, it follows that almost 40% of this amount is 8.9 billion dollars left the country in September, says chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. “We believe that this is the consequence of nervousness in the banking sector,” she adds.
“Shadow the withdrawal could be a result of developments in the banking system (Yugra, Otkrytie, Bank), which for some participants raised the uncertainty of the placement of capital in the local market,” says analyst Denis Poryvai Raifaisenbank.
In the third quarter, almost all of the outflow occurred in the shadow of the operation, specifies the chief economist of ING Bank in Russia and CIS Dmitry Field. The loss of 4.2 billion dollars, the Central Bank wrote in the article “net errors and omissions” – that means the money could leave the country, but the regulator is not yet able to explain the nature of the transaction.
The amount of such uncertain transactions during the quarter, almost on par with the figure for the whole of last year (4.6 billion dollars).
Here should be added $ 0.5 billion quarterly outflow is officially “questionable transactions,” says Field. In January-September they reached a volume of $ 1.1 billion, twice the level of last year.
The loss of foreign exchange earnings on private capital outflows will likely continue, and in 2018 it will become an obstacle to a substantial strengthening of the ruble: dollar exchange rate will rise gradually to a level above 60 rubles, says the Field.
In addition, the Finance Ministry will buy more of the currency relative to its inflow on the current account, increasing the dependence of the market from a sentiment of non-residents buying up our national debt.
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