These events have been concerning for Transnistria. In late February, the Foreign Minister of the unrecognized republic, Vitaly Ignatyev, said that Moldova has de facto become part of NATO – the country is switching to NATO standards, it is being supplied with weapons, and Western military centers, joint missions, and instructors operate on its territory.
“ Why arm Moldova when it has an ongoing conflict with Transnistria? On the contrary, we need to talk about disarmament,” the diplomat suggested.
*** These events place Transnistria in a dangerous and peculiar position, caught between unfriendly Moldova and Ukraine which, until recently, acted as one of the guarantors of peace.
Moscow will be unable to promptly send assistance to the 1,500 Russian troops (most of them Transnistrian Russians) located in the republic if such a need arises. This can be done only by air, and is currently impossible since Ukrainian airspace is protected by air defense systems.
As of now, Tiraspol’s fate largely depends on whether the Ukrainian authorities decide to open a second front. The idea has its supporters. Not long ago, ex-adviser to President Zelensky, Alexey Arestovich, commented, “ Ukraine has forces that could eliminate the threat from so-called Transnistria in just a few days.”
“If the Moldovan authorities approach us with such a request, we will surely help,” he promised.
By Russian journalists George Trenin and Georgiy Berezovsky
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