Many will be surprised, but Russian hostingsite six months ago, quite accurately portrayed the current economic collapse.
The Central Bank on Friday at the monthly meeting decided to leave its key interest rate such as was. Although some experts have called to raise it to slow down the devaluation of the ruble, inflation and capital outflow, and the other part begged this rate, on the contrary, reduce in order to cushion the fall of the economy and to ease the shortage of money.
Perhaps, the Central Bank in this way sends a signal that selects a middle ground. But rather it is just numb from what’s happening around.
Moreover, it is interesting to remember that last autumn, publishing their economic scenarios for the year 2020, the Central Bank in one of them (called risk) is quite believable portrayed what we see now.
I wrote then that, in my experience, PRB analysts is “risky” scenario more interesting than all the rest: because it “is the hypothesis that in the beginning of 2020 will break the world economic crisis, everything goes upside down, oil will collapse and then we have to live with it…”
The annual price of a barrel of Urals in 2020 in this embodiment, predicted about $20-30 (level 2001 — 2003); the import was reduced by a third; inflation rose to 8%; the forecast of real incomes of the population have not been published, but from the adjacent digits followed their decline in 2020 by 4%; depth of the devaluation of the ruble certainly was calculated, but before the public ever even in the form of hints.
These rather astute reasoning was seasoned with deceit court: the difficulty, they say, will be considerable, but, first, still tolerant, and secondly, not very long — after a year of usual life will start to recover. Think less comforting considerations Chapter of our nation as a reader No. 1 just wouldn’t do it.
So, in the Russian economic and financial departments had no idea about the coronavirus, but was quite aware of the crisis. It remains to determine whether they are ready now to face the fact that the predicted.
1. Cheap oil. It’s not just the reduction of import revenues. Approximately $30 per barrel Urals (and in this environment, the price fell to as much as $19) — the level below which a significant portion of Russian oil production in a year or two will irreversibly collapse due to unprofitability. A considerable percentage of the us shale production, too. But, first, not all. And secondly, with the new rise of netizen it quickly recovers and increasing, as it has happened in 2017 — 2019.
You can, of course, as it is now beginning to speak, to rush into the legs and the Saudis again to join them in a cartel, agreeing to seriously cut its own production. However, while there is an epidemic and falling demand for fuel, no cartel will not make cheap oil is expensive, although may add ten dollars to the current price.
Not to mention the fact that gossips are whispering about some kind of alternative oil cartel USA — Saudi Arabia will raise oil price, but will be engaged in the systematic squeezing of Russian fuel from the world market.
At any turn of events, even the oil and gas partial grace, which in the last few years had to be content with our regime, will not return nor in a year or two. The rules are different. What to read before.
2. Devaluation. Russian authorities not only can, but do not want to return to the ruble continues to its weight. Yes, the weakening of the national currency is the surge in inflation and lower standard of living. But in the current environment only polegchalo ruble gives them a chance to reduce government spending to income.
Therefore, the actions of our gsfinancial now it is like spelled out in their “risk” scenario. They daily sell on the open market a moderate amount of currency, somewhere in the $50-100 million, come to terms with the devaluation, but hoping not to let the rate fall below 80-90 to the dollar and to avoid panic associated with too sharp collapse of the ruble. In the “risky” scenario was laid reduction in international reserves in 2020 at $35 billion (only 7%). These are the pace of spending certainly was referring to Finance Minister Siluanov, when talked about six years and even a decade stocks of money.
Such actions in his own logical, if pull a more serious decline in living standards than laid down in the “risky” scenario. But even this will only work under the condition that the yard will be the economic crisis of the usual type, not burdened with epidemic panic, suppression of trade and production due to quarantine, as well as other unpredictable plots, can arise if, for example, the pandemic will go in several waves.
Therefore, from the Russian financial and economic authorities are required some unplanned and “nestinari” steps, the delay with which can become a disaster. And it is clear that these steps yet they are not invented. Or invented, but are not consistent at the top.
3. Unplanned and “nestinari” action is needed now from all of the machine control. In the words of its anti-promise looks more or less reasonable or at least similar to that taken in other countries. But the transition from words to deeds, the picture changed abruptly. Here are just a few obstacles:
a) super-centralization and the dominance of the controlling bodies. All decisions are made at the top and, therefore, late. Even the few administrators, who still have a taste for the initiative, are afraid to show it. Army staff of the regulatory authorities do not able to organize, but successfully blocks any activity.
b) the Detachment from reality of the agenda of higher authorities. Her immersion in the correction-obnovitelne and jubilee initiatives did not weaken. In addition to many other things, this detachment from her life, tied the reluctance of the system to replace the old and lost meaning the budget crisis, to organize prompt financial assistance to people who have lost their income, and at least turn off getmachine that desorientiert divides and irritating people.
C) Otkalibrovani system in isolation from the outside world, protecting the privileges of the upper classes and import substitution. Hence blocking the import of test systems, the preservation of insane lobbying bans on food imports, the efforts of high-ranking and rich to isolate themselves from ordinary citizens, the inaction and deceit of the bureaucracy.
Tragicomic our current situation is that she’s not really a surprise: the authorities competent with the filing of its analysts it allowed the crisis this year. However, I hoped to wait out the bad weather, slightly pressing subjects. But now, when the “risky” prediction has come true, it turns out that the sit will not work. And to not do anything.
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