2019 will be one of the most difficult for residents of Russia: authorities warn about the end of the crisis, low inflation and unemployment… But at the same time raising all possible taxes, and even introduce a new, dooming citizens and business to a slow death. Just who, then, those same taxes going to pay?
Citizen, empty your pockets!
13 thousand roubles a year will pay every citizen of our precious government for its reforms in 2019. This calculation was conducted by the economists, to determine the true “price” of all the innovations that Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and President Vladimir Putin to explain “care” about the citizens and the economy in General.
4340 roubles a month — the rise in prices of food and clothing (included in the consumer basket) due to the increase in VAT.
3510 roubles rise in price of journey in public transport.
1800 rubles — the rise in prices of communication services (mobile phone and Internet).
1320 rubles — increase of tariffs for housing and communal services (don’t forget that next year in most regions is entered and payment for the disposal of garbage).
1071 rouble rise in price of gasoline (to pay not only motorists, but also each of us — due to the price increase for all services and goods).
680 roubles rise in price of drugs (in 2019 manufacturers and pharmacies will begin to introduce a system of mandatory labeling, which, of course, will shift to the buyer).
Not to mention such “trifles” as the sharp rise in prices of cars (increase of customs excise duties) and apartments in new buildings (because of the new law on share building). Plus the introduction of environmental fees for enterprises and self-employed tax. Well, plus the beginning of pension reform: economists estimate that it will cost every Russian 170 thousand roubles a year (this is the size of lost pension due to the increase in age of exit on the deserved rest).
Against this background more and separate regions practiced in the imposition of additional taxes and fees: for example, in the Crimea, in 2019, the tourists will begin paying a mandatory resort fee, and in Moscow and Saint-Petersburg cool grows the cost of paid Parking.
About how the growth of fiscal and tariff burden will have an impact on ordinary Russians, the “Free press” talked to our experts.
Production growth will slow
Head of tax practice of law firm of BMS Law Firm Denis Zaitsev:
Next year already promises to be difficult for the population: there will be increasing cost of utility bills, gasoline prices, etc. the Latter will lead to an increase in the cost of transport services.
But one of the main events is, of course, increase the VAT rate to 20%. And while it’s hard to say whether this will bring a measure of real benefit to the Russian economy in the future.
Since it is an indirect tax, it will pay not the company, and consumers, i.e. the prices of goods will increase. Against the background of falling real incomes will cause a decrease in the purchasing power of citizens.
But for companies as costs will increase and you will also need to spend money on conversion software that is configured on the old rate. On business the VAT increase will affect a decrease in demand, which will lead to a slowdown in production.
The majority will have to save hard
Senior risk Manager investment company Vitaly Manzhos:
The planned increase in the VAT rate in Russia is just one fragment of the whole set of measures, worsening economic situation of citizens. In the same row is raising the retirement age, the coming rise in utility tariffs, increasing taxes on residential property, the introduction of new taxes, fees, and more.
By the way, successful “curbing” government growth of prices of automotive fuel also looks fairly evil achievement, since in his price has long been high share of pledged excise taxes.
On the other hand, develops the latent tendency to reduce the number of previously free and available benefits. Take, for example, expanding the area of paid hourly Parking on the streets of major cities. In the absence of a free alternative to these services is actually imposed.
Another example is the reduction in the actual availability of free medical services. Their consumers are put in such conditions when it is more convenient to address in paid medical institutions. Meanwhile, in the calculation of the official consumer price index such additional expenses are not included. In other words, expenditures of the population steadily growing, but their growth is officially remains “invisible” and “unaccounted for” for the state.
According to the forecast of Ministry of economic development, real disposable income of citizens of the country in 2019 will increase by 1%. It is obvious that this forecast is optimistic, and rather reflect the desired and not the actual situation. In such circumstances, people “living on one salary”, pensioners, recipients of social benefits will have no choice but to save and to postpone necessary purchases for later. It is obvious that the decline in consumer activity will not benefit the trade and many other sectors of the economy.
The consumer market will shrink
The Deputy Chairman of the Board of the financial company Alexander Nut:
— There is every reason to believe that in the first half of 2019, real income will fall even more. The increase in VAT, tariffs and prices, plus the volatility of oil reduce even more the purchasing power of Russians.
If a consumption and continue, only at the expense of credit resources. For example, cars whose prices will also rise, which will be bought mainly on credit. According to my projections, the share of “credit” cars in the coming year can be from 50 to 70% of the total volume of purchased cars.
Your “contribution” will make a future reduction, especially in the banking sector, because the regulator will continue to withdraw licenses from banks. This wave will have just for the first half of 2019.
As a result, the purchasing power of the population will be reduced, respectively, to buy people will be less, the market will shrink. But due to this, the Central Bank probably otraportuet of reducing inflation.
Goods will rise by at least 10%
The lawyer of “European legal service” Kislyakova Yulia:
— The VAT increase will affect the prices of goods and services for citizens. It will reduce the level of life of Russians, whose incomes did not grow the last four years. In particular, the VAT increase will also affect the growth of municipal services: in 2019 they will rise twice!
The rising cost of goods and services will occur for more than 2% because most of the goods hits the shelves, going a considerable way from producer to end user: this is a bulk purchasing intermediaries, and the sale and delivery of goods from suppliers to the stores. But the number of such intermediaries are limited.
The cost of goods is added to the cost of raw materials, packing, other costs and benefits inherent in the enterprise. To this price add on the value added tax. The seller placing the goods on the counter, will also make a margin. In General, according to my estimates, an increase in VAT by 2% prices will rise by at least 9-10 percent.
The increase in the cost of goods may occur due to the increase of the value of excisable goods: excise duty raised on petrol, cars, tobacco and tobacco products, and systems for heating tobacco and electronic delivery systems nicotine, alcoholic beverages and beer, alcohol-containing products household chemicals.
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