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Damascus dissatisfied with the inaction of Moscow and is preparing an offensive on Idlib

Дамаск недоволен бездействием Москвы и готовит наступление на Идлиб

It is obvious that with Idlib things don’t go as well as expected. The peace agreement, Turkey proposed as the only possible option of resolving the issue was met without enthusiasm in Syria, and, according to rumors, the Russian leadership were not all happy with them.

There are a lot of reasons. First, it actually means freezing the civil war in Syria. At first glance, this may seem like a good solution for large bloodshed under these conditions is almost eliminated. But it also eliminates the possibility of the restoration of Syria as a state in the foreseeable future. Moreover, the fighting could erupt at any time, but not the fact that by the time Asad is ready, and Russia, and all can already withdraw their forces. So the state is not restored, or Damascus will have to come to terms with the loss of Idlib and to rebuild the territories under their control. But in this case, the Kurds can abandon peace negotiations and finally to become convinced that an independent Kurdistan it is much nicer than a certain autonomy within the Syrian Arab Republic. While many of them are in active negotiations with Damascus, but if you go to Idlib, it is almost guaranteed they will go away and Rozhava so-called (self-proclaimed Kurdish state in Syria — ed.). For Moscow, it can lead to loss of credibility and thus geopolitical influence in the middle East.

It seems that the opposition and terrorists in Idlib, the deal is also not satisfied. Otherwise, just difficult to explain their frequent attacks on positions of the Syrian Arab army, which controls the perimeter of the demilitarized zone. In fact this zone was never created, as the individual sites are the place to be a regular collision. So for the past few days have reported a number of serious attacks by militants. All these attacks were repulsed, but there is a loss of government forces. As for the militants it is reported that dozens of them have been eliminated, there are also many wounded. Somehow it doesn’t look like a ceasefire and the freezing of the conflict. In addition, both opposition and government areas are regularly subjected to artillery fire. It is important here that killed civilians.

More like the fact that Turkey and Russia agreed not to oppose each other in Idlib, and all the rest are allowed to do what they did before the Sochi meeting of Erdogan and Putin, that is — to participate in low-intensity war without the prospect of victory of one side or another. In Damascus, this situation does not suit anyone, and there are already rumours that senior military leadership is actively developing a plan of attack in the province, taking into consideration the probability of the neutrality of Russia and Iran. Quite an adventurous undertaking, if you remember, that is located in Idlib, the Turkish military with heavy equipment. However, this option cannot be excluded, given that, in principle, Damascus, and so every day fighting with Iglinski the opposition and terrorists.

Turkish expert Ender Imrek believes in Idlib really restless, and initially all of the transaction expected more. The probability that a single collision of the Syrian Arab army and the opposition will escalate into a full-fledged war, always present, but it is not the greatest.

— The opposition has problems with the regime. National liberation front (Pro-Turkish coalition Iglinskiy of the opposition — ed.) always refused any deals with Assad and his men, but it happened that they agreed their representatives. To break this contract — it means to substitute Turkey or Russia. Whoever did it will be one of the worst mistakes.

“SP”: — Why, then, there are constant clashes?

— It is necessary to pay attention to the fact, against whom the army of the regime is fighting. National liberation front accepts the conditions of Turkey, which as everyone has noticed, including in the Kremlin, tries to adhere to the terms of the contract. Weapons removed from the territory that will soon become a demilitarized zone. Hundreds of armed men left the village in contact with the areas controlled by the regime. Isolated incidents happen, but they are minor. The main problems of the Assad groups that are considered terrorist. The heirs of dzhebhat an-Nusra* refused to support anyone and said that the Sochi agreement is not binding. They are fighting not only with the regime but with the opposition. It can cause certain difficulties in the region, but Turkey and Russia will deal with any conflicts between his protégé. It is a fragile peace, but it is good that his guarantors, Russia and Turkey. If they will change something in their plans, then immediately everything will become different. But as long as the prerequisites for this are observed.

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