In Beijing, was embarrassed, China’s population was obliged to grieve and okrasilsja to his leadership, the family of Nations was supposed to say “China flexes in the war with America.” And then came the McKinsey research and consulting firm with its unexpected report and ruined everything
Beijing is just starting to seriously feel the way how information warfare conducted with their global processing brains. And we all know it and even longer to react. Well, at least here it is: sanctions 2014 to isolate Russia and its economy rolled back to the status of a gas station with rockets, the population goes to the streets under the banner of the victory of liberalism… In such cases, of course, you can do well even without facts, but it is better to get out of the picture some figure and make it spectacular.
In the case of China there are some standard subjects on which the propaganda war is being waged with a dull persistence, and with complete disregard for the facts, but then in July, out of the corner popped two digits (0.2 percent economic growth and “for the first time in 27 years”), and began. Everyone was used to the Chinese records on the part of increases in GDP, and then…
So, announced that in the second quarter of this year, the Chinese economy grew by 6.2 percent. And in the first one was a 6.5! And, therefore, GDP for the six months grew by only 6.3 per cent — and thus the essence of the event not in the growth, and to reduce the final semi-annual evaluation by 0.2 percent compared to that previously thought.
In General, growth is falling, everything is clear. Started predictable: commented these quarterly 0.2 percent literally everything, and the Russian ketenagalistrikan gloated together with foreign colleagues. The idea they developed as follows: before us are the lowest growth rate of the Chinese economy over the past 27 years. Beijing will have — perhaps — fill it with money, and I can only imagine what will happen to the exchange rate of the yuan, and then… well, coming catastrophe. America steers.
And don’t even hesitate: personally, Donald trump did not fail to apply the news as a sign that a trade war with a competitor, he wins, since 27 years, this “low” growth in fact was not.
How could beat clever propaganda? There are several ways. The easiest to say: trade war going on for nearly a year and a half, and all what the US has achieved is a decline of 0.2 percent growth, which is still more than six percent, the envy of the world? Poor beat, guys.
But China, in the face of the leaders or promoters, this idea is not very conducted. Because I done it before in similar situations, was too lazy to repeat myself?
Or you can make it more difficult to catch the opponent on a well-known distortion with absolute numbers and percentages. The fact that the percentage thing is misleading. If you added in the last year or quarter GDP at 6.5 percent, we need to see what previous or future interest is calculated. 27 years or one year ago are two very different original figures. It is quite possible that less is more, i.e. the percentage decrease in the rate actually will be, in absolute numbers produced growth: looking to compare.
But China and do no more — just not yet. Because almost at the same time the statistics for the second quarter appeared the above mentioned report, without much effort Beijing conversations about 0.2 percent, quickly followed by a global discussion of what they say at McKinsey. As they say, simply, that later — the Chinese economy will not hurt through the import and export as it tries to make the team trump. This economy came to independent existence.
That is, to try to give a ridiculous slowdown for the victory of external forces is not necessary. External forces are already powerless.
Read this detailed document, of course, have entirely. In short, once China grew by producing and selling something to others. But richer, he began to work for themselves. In particular, in 2007 the country exported 17 percent made to it, in 2017 — only nine percent, and the trend continues.
And that’s not all. The report describes in detail not only what China no one is not particularly necessary, but, as we all need it. There is a long enumeration and classification of countries which is absolutely necessary to sell a new giant raw materials, or they are connected production chains, or were recipients of investment.
There are Chinese economists shook himself and began to overwhelm the world with numbers about what is actually happening in this “inhibiting” the economy. For the first six months created 7.5 million jobs in cities — and these people, got a job, began to actively buy anything. Personal income increased over the same half year of 6.5 percent, i.e., you will not believe — 0.2% higher economic growth (magic number, however, these 0.2 per cent). Finally, they sale all sorts of goods to the consumer ahead of the pace of the economy as a whole, 9.8 percent. But in absolute terms, recall that we are talking about working (and buying) population, which is more than USA and EU combined…
Let’s leave the Chinese to their joy and instead say afterwords that it actually is about the change of an era in the world economy. Remember how it was in the middle of the last century: a few rich countries — and a lot of peripherals, mostly former colonies. It seemed that the gap between them forever. But then there was the Japanese economic miracle, which is then repeated a whole series of “Asian tigers”: Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia… And then the same way to China.
Economists began to seem that the only recipe for success is to work on the other. And then no matter the size of the population (he’s trouble), nor the territory or resources important to learn how to produce and sell a product with required quality rich uncle, the former colonial master. Design, technology, and global values with the rules will do it, and you work with your hands and live better than before. It is clear that you’re uncle’s going to depend, well, not upset him.
And now it turns out that it was a temporary and transitional situation, from the perversion called “colonialism” to normality. Which, it turns out, size and population are important, especially if the population of an ancient civilization, with many talents and characteristics. But how will the world look like at the end of the return to normality, few people understand.
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