The Bank of Russia has prepared a macroeconomic forecast for the next 3 years, taking into account the tightening of anti-Russian sanctions, which are expected to be held in November.
However, to publish the figures of the Central Bank is not planning. This was stated, speaking in the Duma, Director of the Department of monetary policy of the regulator Alexey Zabotkin.
The secrecy stems from the fact that “it is impossible to predict what sanctions are implemented,” he explained at the meeting of the expert Committee of the lower house of Parliament.
“Therefore, as long as they don’t happen, we wouldn’t want to digitise them,” said Zabotkin, adding that the sanctions scenario was calculated with the condition of relatively stable oil prices.
“We worked inside the script and sanctions. For ourselves, we understand these effects, but probably in digital form, we will show only when and if the sanctions regimes will change,” he said (quoted by “Interfax”).
Officially, the Central Bank is risk scenario, which is traditionally calculated on the sharp drop in oil prices.
The regulator lays the possibility of a collapse is almost three times – from the current $ 84 per barrel to 35, said the first Deputy Chairman Ksenia Yudaeva, in parallel with Zabotkina speakers in the Federation Council.
In this case, according to Yudayeva, will start “accelerating inflation” and there is “negative GDP growth”.
The main macroparameters of the risk scenario also remain secret. In “the Basic directions monetary-the credit policy” in the 2019-21 biennium, the Central Bank merely indicates that the fall in the oil 35 will lead to the collapse of OPEC transaction+ in which the largest dalycity cut production to reduce the market oversupply, and achieved takeoff prices to highs in 2014.
The result will be the acceleration of capital outflows from Russia, contraction in domestic demand, the weakening of the ruble, growth of exchange rate and inflation expectations, enumerates the Central Bank, adding that together these factors will require policy tightening with higher interest rates.
In the baseline scenario, the Central Bank is waiting for a gradual decrease in oil prices to $ 60 per barrel in 2019 and $ 55 in the next two years.
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