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Break the mortgage bubble in Moscow threatened to crash the banking system

Разрыв ипотечного пузыря в Москве грозит катастрофой банковской системе

The blast of the mortgage bubble would create an unprecedented crisis in the banking system of the country and will bring down the already shaky real estate market, just as in 2008, the American real estate crisis brought down the global economy.

But this is quite serious – writes a public “Angry townspeople” on the problems of Moscow: we are not Talking about comfortable and safe living environment, which destroys the mayor’s office, and the increasing signals of impending problems that a layman are not always visible and clear.

Came across an article in “Forbes” about the fall of the stock Peak. Many people absolutely hate PEAK reasonably, happy. I’d be happy if it were not for the statement of one analyst about the “bubble”. My old fears are starting to be vindicated.

In Moscow and Moscow region a huge number of unsold apartments. Five years ago we didn’t know such word “squatting”. For those who don’t know, the squatters called the invaders abandoned housing.

Where does the orphan home? The fact that all of the largest real estate developers leveraged on the tonsils. And that would continue to start new projects, developers receive new secured loans not only land rights, but most of those unsold apartments, and did not even try to sell them.

Simple arithmetic to help us. Suppose that the mortgage Bank discount is 50%. At an estimated price of apartments in Moscow an average of 200 thousand rubles., can be obtained from the Bank not less than 100 thousand rubles per meter laid.

The cost of housing economy and comfort class, taking into account all of the costs of landscaping and utilities, is not more than 40 thousand rubles, and if the roof is covered with gold leaf.

Thus, the developer of credit funds receives about 60 thousand rubles for a “square” of free money that he is likely to immediately directs to offshore.

The question remains in the financing of loan interest, advertising, maintenance of office hamsters and other fixed costs for the activity.

Here this need and provide scant direct sales, and the mayor’s office has been active in the formation of minimum demand, advertising their festivals, public amenities, “pavilions of health.” The municipality advertises the city itself, creating an image of imaginary well-being in the minds of the untutored inhabitants of the regions, urging them to move to Moscow.

Back to abandoned and occupied by squatters apartments. You probably remember in 2008 when the trigger of the global economic crisis began in the American mortgage companies “Fannie Mae” and “Freddie Mac”. The situation is essentially the “they” are distinguished by the fact that these companies worked with the market secondary offering of secured mortgages. America in General is renowned for having created a lot of secondary exchange instruments.

What is dangerous mortgage bubble for us. In Russia the explosion of the mortgage bubble directly, bypassing the exchange tools, will create an unprecedented crisis in the banking system of the country and will bring down the already shaky real estate market.

And now, instead of having to stop the pumping of the bubble in Moscow, the municipality, like ozverev, opening new construction. Instead of a neat, very careful deflation of the bladder, the municipality is making every effort to cheat, knowing full well that it will burst sooner or later. But apparently, the municipality and approximate developers are no longer associate themselves with this country. Officials acquired foreign real estate, capital and taken their children abroad.

And we’re here to stay with a ruined economy, destroyed the banking system, millions of “deceived investors” and other delights explosion in an unstable environment. Even sanctions of the West do not need such friends.

© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.

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