“Japan’s sovereignty extends to the Northern territory” (as in the land of the rising sun called our Southern Kuril Islands — ed.). This was stated by Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe during debate in the lower house of Parliament. And just yesterday he said that the deployment of us military bases on them will depend on the decision of Tokyo. Of course, if Moscow would give Russian island.
To shrug off this news, as from importunate flies, will not work. Tokyo sends more and more signals about the impending deal: a peace Treaty in exchange at least for small South Kuril Islands — Shikotan and the Habomai group.
It is only on the screens of our televisions Abe looks sort of peaceful and even slightly naive person “ohmuryaet” experienced Putin. In Japan of Shinzo spoken of as a tough and pragmatic politician who does not throw words to the wind. Say, if he promises to end his political career to solve, though not completely, the problem of “Northern territories”, then he will do it.
Evident that in preparation for the January meeting with President Putin, Abe has gathered a meeting of the government on “security at sea”. It was mostly on the disputed Senkaku Islands (Chinese name Diaoyu) Islands, turning into the real bone of contention between Tokyo and Beijing.
At first glance, the official statement of the Japanese Cabinet of Russia has not been a word, but a government publication of Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet led Prime Minister’s words: “We are reinforcing and strengthening our system of the Japan Coast guard (FIGHT) with last year in response to the increasingly difficult situation in the waters around Japan.” That is, in the North too. So that the stone in our garden thrown.
Who does not know: the Japanese Coast guard, according to the documents officially does not belong to the self-defense Forces and subject to seemingly harmless to the Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism. However, being created in 1948 on the American model, it is a separate paramilitary group, which in the international conflict had a purely military function. So, in the event of an invasion of the Southern Kuriles fighters BATTLE will be required to provide airlift “military tourists” and Stripping the “Northern territories” by Russian “border crossers”.
In fact, in the Country of the rising sun are two of the fleet. In 2020, the Park patrol ships of the BATTLE, including the helicopter and large multipurpose court’s quick response (actually the real destroyers) will reach 142 units. Recall also that the U.S. Coast guard during the Vietnam war took a very active part in the occupation and was equipped with all kinds of weapons, including missiles.
Thus, Abe, stressing the vital role of the battle in the “security around Japan,” spoke more broadly and not just in the context of the Sino-Japanese territorial disputes. What is there to dissemble: the more powerful Maritime self-defense force of Japan (MSSA) do not act alone, but in close Alliance with the United States Navy, as unlike Shikotan and Habomai, Washington is the guarantor of Japanese ownership of the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands.
It turns out: whether Tokyo suggests that in the foreseeable future, the US Navy will be able to keep the fleet in China, or talk about the Senkaku Islands is a cover of the other plans, in respect of already “Northern territories.” In favor of the second version says the fact that Abe indicates that powerful MSSA and COMBAT are good diplomatic argument in international negotiations with difficult negotiators.
It is symptomatic that the head of Japan have repeatedly repeated the words of the 87th Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi that the warships are allowed to use force for law enforcement purposes, including to protect the borders. Moreover, this provision is already included in the supposedly pacifist Constitution of Japan. Therefore, the ABA, claiming that the Japanese sovereignty extends to the Southern Kuril Islands, in fact, leads the legal framework for the invasion of the “Northern territories”.
There is no doubt that there are such plans in detail and calculated. At the initial stage, the main role for the Maritime self-defense force, intended for the conquest of the sea. According to the online help Global Security, MCSA include more than 120 ships (excluding minor and auxiliary vessels), including 4 helicopter carriers, 12 destroyers, 36 frigates, 19 submarines, 29 mine countermeasure vessels, 7 patrol ships, 3 amphibious assault ship.
But the immediate capture of the Russian Islands, as mentioned above, should be engaged by the Japanese Coast guard. The number seems small — a little more than 12 thousand people, but amphibious capabilities is significant. According to some estimates, the ships of the BATTLE you can land on the shore of the South Kuril Islands to 200 thousand soldiers in one week.
However, these forces are not enough, is guaranteed to smash the Russian Pacific fleet and capture the “Northern territories”. We have the advantage in submarines and parity in aircraft. Even the Kuril Islands to perform the functions of unsinkable aircraft carriers. But most importantly, today and in the foreseeable future Russian tactical nuclear weapons without any problems and will restore the status quo at sea. Fortunately, effective anti-ship missiles our parts are not deprived.
It meant Abe, speaking of the urgent strengthening of the FIGHT and MSSA by allocating significant Finance, including for the construction of the helicopter carrier, capable of carrying up to 40 F-35 fighter. Only the Japanese want to put in the North more than 1000 fighters of the 5th generation to take the initiative.
In this regard, the question arises: is it really a Japanese invasion of the Southern Kuriles in the foreseeable future? As writes the Tokyo analytical newspaper The Diplomat, the Cabinet of Japan does not consider, at least today, a military solution to the problem of “Northern territories” and hopes in 2019 to reach a framework agreement on a peace Treaty, which States the conditions for the transfer and (or) joint ownership of Shikotan and the Habomai group. Abe dreams of that historic event will occur in Tokyo at the G20 meeting in June of the current year, which, however, does not prevent him to prepare for a limited war with Russia.
Again, Abe is not romantic and not a political dreamer, hence, we can assume that there are secret agreements with Putin about the first steps that will bring closer the positions. But still it will be many years before the legal service of the two governments will agree on all conditions of the final document.
So today sees the developments in the Country of the rising sun, they say, until the Russians give at least some hope that the Japanese will have to wait. The fact that Tokyo understands that if the invasion of the Southern Kuriles fails, then the Islands will have to forget forever. I’m afraid there’s historical bad habit of Moscow geographically, to punish aggressors. Though the land many Russian take and cut off from Hokkaido a couple of thousand square kilometers. To discourage others were.
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