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Baltic Hyperloop to the village Gadyukino: why Rail Baltica will never pay off

Прибалтийский Гиперлуп до села Гадюкино: почему Rail Baltica никогда не окупится

but 5 years, this Commission was swearing Lithuanians on the following theme: through the Kaunas of Lithuania to carry out part of the way or via Vilnius.

The Lithuanians insisted on Vilnius, the capital of the country, but Estonians and Latvians were arguing about — say, the hook will, more will fall. And you have enough of Kaunas and the capital of its on a cart drive.

Are still arguing.

And now five more years have passed.

Its organisational activity (ideas, projects, presentations, coffee breaks) a joint venture Rail Baltica has already spent many millions of European money, and not even a single digger is not stuck the shovel in the future embankment.

Moreover, specific projects (bridges, lines, stations) and still the horse is not lying, all at the level of “concepts” and “debate”.

***

Recently the audit chamber of the European Union interested in: where does the millions erogenic and where are the rails?

And found that the money was eaten that the project budget has increased three times and the count of presentations, Latvians, Estonians, Lithuanians played a cunning trick — is not taken into account neither the price of the rolling stock, or the cost to purchase the land for laying tracks.

Hehe, and the Baltic peasant when he finds out that through its ravines with bushes is supposed to hold the road, drives up the price of land in the center of Tokyo.

And (I laughed): “managery” of the project presented the EU’s future profits, which entered and received “environmental effect”, and “saved travel time”, and even “saved 400 lives” of people who will remain alive, otherwise would have died. Say, carriage of passengers by rail is less dangerous than by road. How much they appreciated these “life”?

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By the way, about “saved travel time”. With the development of the project Rail Baltica I, a resident of Riga, followed his transformation (for presentations). First, there was painting full “hyperloop” with a speed of 300 km/h. Then the speed was reduced to 250. Then to 160. Then adjusted to 120. Evolution on the contrary. So, too, sometimes.

***

And now we take the calculator and count. I’m a terrible nerd, I like to count numbers. Take for model the main piece of the Rail Baltica — 600 km between Tallinn and Vilnius. All the possible schedules between these cities rides a day and 20 coaches. With an average occupancy of 30-35 passengers on the machine (I specified the carriers), between the two cities per day are moved (one way) a maximum of 700 passengers.

What is 700 passengers? These are two simple trains like the Russian “Swallows”. One goes in the morning, one in the evening.

And when you consider that the speed Baltic hyperloop according to the latest concepts would be virtually bus (120 km/h), filled with passengers trains on Rail Baltica all the bus connections between the great Baltic capitals will have to prohibit, to dig roads, and road bridges to blow up.

And now calculate the cash flow of passenger traffic. By bus from Tallinn to Vilnius — 30 EUR. Multiply by 700 passengers per day, multiplied by 2 (to and fro), times 365 days in a year… Get 150 million euros in annual revenue.

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And now, friends, think, how many years will pay off “of the Baltic hyperloop” Rail Baltica Tallinn — Riga — Vilnius, which now pulls the estimated 16 billion (!) Euro? Is it just me that after 100+ years? Or I do not understand the arithmetic? Or I did not realize that the operation hyperloop also costs money, plus taxes, plus Bank interest on loans… Oh, dear, did not take into account the overhead!

In other words — never.

PS there is No commercial or infrastructural sense, this “high-speed” European gauge railway through the Baltic countries has not. There is no passenger traffic to cache at least 5%, no traffic.

And because to build between the endangered Baltic countries super-railway — all the same what to build between the village of Deep Mud and farm “50 years without a crop” cosmitology highway.

Is it only one meaning (conspiracy theory): this is a “parallel” way. Who served in the army, knows the term. Rokada is a road, located ALONG the front line for rapid deployment of heavy military equipment.

That, in fact, is already happening. In the Baltic countries have long imported heavy military equipment at the old Soviet way, to fight the enemy. Abrams hauling, howitzers…

And what country-the enemy is ALONG this “hyperloop”? Guess three times.

P. P. S. the Railway between Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius are in the Soviet time I successfully used. Twenty years ago, passenger traffic on this route was canceled. Unprofitable.

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