In recent weeks in Northwest Syria, there were too many important events. Of course, in the foreground, our plane was shot down. Russia and Israel opposing views, but this in itself is a big challenge. In addition, after the terrible statements of the Ministry of defense in Israel are actively discussing what to do. Against Iran to fight still have, but now suddenly Russia, embittered by the incident, decides to fulfill some of its obligations to the Persians as part of the deal on cooperation in SAR. It seems that the delivery of s-300 to some extent will satisfy Tehran. This is a problem for, but Netanyahu, I think, will find a way to get out.
This is not the only event. On the second place of significance is for the whole province, namely Idlib. His fate was decided by the three countries — Russia, Turkey and Iran. The first two are more important. They discussed how to be, but in the end came to the conclusion that Turkey offers for quite some time — there will be no war. Yes, Ankara did not want this war, because it is facing the greatest problems — there and refugee flows, and loss of influence, and the worsening of the economic crisis, not to mention the possible military losses. The Kremlin has listened and were understanding. In General, Idlib with the adjacent Afrin and some other parts of the province of Aleppo remains in opposition, but actually hosting there will be Ankara. However, the problem of the province and government of territories already actively creates a demilitarized zone. It’s just great, except that in Syria reacted to it ambiguously.
Russian readers are probably more familiar with the following version — “Damascus welcomes agreement on Idlib”. Our media just casually mentioned it in the interpretation of the results of the Russian-Turkish negotiations. Well, the truth in this. The Syrians issued a statement of its foreign Ministry, which is really frowned upon the Russian-Turkish plan. But in the same statement, the representatives of the foreign Ministry of the Union has noted the fact that the agreement is “limited in time”. And a few hours later, the Syrian Ambassador in Lebanon Ali Abdul-Karim and even stated: “We do not trust Turkey,” but he expressed hope that Ankara will have to keep their promises. In General, the officials are very reticent and almost no comment on the matter.
You can not say about the media. The problem is that in just a day or two before the agreement peresadovka edition actively wrote that there is no peace with insurgents and terrorists can not be. There was confidence that Putin will refuse to Erdogan, if he starts to offer something similar. But diplomacy prevailed, and now in articles by Pro-government authors felt some contradiction: apparently, they have not been able to understand that now they need a peace agreement, not an unconditional victory over all enemies and the full return of Syria under the rule of Damascus.
Even associated with the administration of Bashar al-Assad newspaper al-Watan in the first days after the meeting of Putin and Erdogan have already published, so to speak, of the disputed materials. In one of the articles stated that the agreement related to the personal interests of Russia. Moscow agreed to the terms of Ankara with the aim to avoid in the future of Turkey’s rapprochement with the West. In times of confrontation with the United States is very important. If Erdogan’s plan was rejected, of course, it would create a new cold snap in Russian-Turkish relations. The author, in making this assumption, still trying to “otmazatsya” Russia. He begins to list the pros of the demilitarized zone and in the end argues that the main enemy of Damascus — the United States, and indeed now much more important to solve the issue of the territories under Kurdish control.
But this was only the beginning. Further in the same newspaper began to publish materials openly rejects the truce. One of them under the headline “Militants rejected the agreement in Sochi words and actions” describes the continued fighting in Latakia and Hama, which border with Idlib. It is noted that the opposition fighters and terrorists do not adhere to peace and going to war on, therefore, Damascus must to act the same way.
Now the Pro-government media regularly publish military reports from Hama and other regions around Idlib. They are full of discontent with the Turks and the opposition. While the Syrian Arab army constantly having to small operation. It turns out that there is no peace, and if according to these military reports are now Pro-government troops are not going to disperse, instead they wait for the civilian population to leave Idlib, and then the offensive will begin after all. Somehow this goes against the peace plan. Is Assad really willing to disobey his older ally and begin the liberation of Idlib?
Turkish expert keram Yildirim believes that Damascus really was dissatisfied with the agreement as initially Assad and his entourage have set their sights on a quick offensive. That is why the main forces of the Syrian Arab army were concentrated in the North-West of the country in the shortest possible time. And now a peaceful solution can have a detrimental effect even on the presidential rating among the population and especially in the military environment. For Assad could gain a foothold glory weak leader and dependent policy, because now it has become clear that the most important decision he can make. However, to come to Idlib, he is hardly now going, for he had no opportunities.
An important role in the actions of the regime in the North-West of Syria had to play Iranian military and Hezbollah. But Rouhani has supported Erdogan’s proposal for a peaceful settlement before it has made Vladimir Putin. Iran now just will not provide their resources to this campaign. Russia adheres to the same position. Of its capabilities the regime not so much. Not more than thirty thousand soldiers, together with volunteer groups. Without the Russian planes to bomb Idlib will be nothing. Their planes ill suited for such action, and the rebels are able to repel the attacks of this obsolete equipment. With such conditions, any attack will be a failure. Political opportunities for this either. Ally Assad will not allow this suicidal operation. But some clashes with small groups of opposition can not be avoided — they occur almost every day. But when all the issues with the demilitarized zone will be resolved, such incidents will become less.
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