Happens in history, when the power tends to one, and it is quite another. And very unpleasant for the authorities. This means that he began to work the law of unintended consequences. It tells about the quality of governance and the ability of the ruling to understand what they are doing. In Russia began to operate the law of unintended consequences, which now replaces our Constitution.
Today our government solves the two system tasks. It seeks to close the opportunity for the emergence of a new Gorbachev inside and gets rid of the constitutional legacy of Yeltsin, which, although claims of presidential autocracy, but enables the changing of his face. Consequently, the change of the ruling clan, more important.
The Kremlin cements a new political regime, which should ensure the transfer of power-ownership of the offspring of the ruling class and its appointees. But without the participation of society and without a headache. And this is an urgent need to solve a number of problems. It is impossible to pull further.
First, you need to resolve the conflict between tending to infinity centralization and electoral legitimization, which creates for the authorities a threat of uncertainty.
Secondly, the current leader must do everything to avoid becoming a “lame duck” at the completion of his current presidency. Divination, who’s next, you need to stop. The search for a successor breaks the autocracy.
Third, you need to prepare for the increased tension as the exhaustion of funds that the state spends on the purchase of mass support.
Fourthly, it is necessary to prepare a mechanism of succession, which would have kept the Kremlin in the hands of the governing body after the departure of Putin. But in a way that does not undermine its current Board. This is the most difficult trick!
Coronavirus has simplified the design of the new regime through the elimination of the possibility of mass resistance. The irony is that the way of concrete power poses for her even more devastating threats.
Already seen the “unintended consequences” faced by the Kremlin. Let’s list the obvious:
— The destruction of the constitutional bases makes the norm of non-legal consciousness and power, and society. This means the expansion of the state, which became the property of clan groups. This means the readiness of the society to fight against injustice, inequality and humiliation outside the law.
— Elimination of legal channels for the expression of the sentiments of the society leads to attempts at their articulation “across the street”. There is an effect of “boiling kettle with the lid closed”.
— Consolidation of the monopoly of power of one clan kills the chances of “elevators” for other segments of the political class. It can not cause irritation of the elite groups deprived of the chance to exit “up”.
— With the explosion of social discontent will have to actively “throw under the wheels” of the ruling class. This begins to undermine the elite consensus and loyalty – a prerequisite for the preservation of that regime.
— The transition to the repressive instruments of the Board will strengthen the Kremlin power bloc and weaken the role of the leader as a moderator with consequences for the rest of the political class.
— Use of historic victories for the legitimation of power indicates the absence of other ideological slogans, except for one: “Russia is surrounded by enemies”. But the transformation of Russia into a “Fortress” can hardly be supported by the public — people are tired of living in “Strongholds”.
— Address to foreign policy and the game of power to compensate for internal failures is no longer working. Does not work, even if the decay of the surrounding world provides the opportunity to enter the world stage and to show off.
The bitter irony is that the vote for constitutional “amendments” should be the expression of the consent of the people to the voluntary abandonment of elections as a way of regime change. Clever, isn’t it?! Moreover, the mechanism of “voting” has already guaranteed the Kremlin’s desired result.
But the offer of the society to castrate can become a means of awakening. With far-reaching consequences.
Perhaps the Constitution itself and many don’t care. But the transformation of the Constitution in the trash means that now the power can destroyed the barriers that limit its permissiveness. The question remains: what is the degree of patience of the public body, with which it already skinned (let’s not forget about the pension reform)? What will happen to the country and government, when people’s patience will burst? Judging by the procurement of non-lethal weapons to quell protest in billions of rubles, the question of the patience of the population concerned and the power itself.
The hopes for de-globalization and that the world will move to the “balance of power” that will create for Russia a favourable international background, will be another disappointment. The balance of power with deafening asymmetry of the resources of Russia and developed countries will be a humiliating blow to our pride. Success for Russia will be to get to the second echelon of world States.
The government can, of course, to seek solace in the fact that society looks as if it is still in suspended animation and hope that everything will work out. It turned out well so far! But the Law of unintended consequences earned. And it will not stop.
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