The gross domestic product of Belarus in January-February decreased by 0.6% compared to the first two months of 2019, according to Belstat. GDP in current prices amounted to 19.5 billion roubles.
Photo: Dmitry Brushko, TUT.BY
In January, the decline was 1.9 percent compared to January 2019.
Falling is connected with reduction of volumes of production of petrochemicals in the background of the problems with Russian oil supplies and a decline in production of potash fertilizers.
Industrial production in January-February fell by 3.3% to 17.2 billion rubles, in current prices.
The volume of agricultural production increased by 6%, amounting to 1.9 billion rubles.
Investments since the beginning of the year increased by 0.9% to 3.3 billion rubles. Retail trade turnover increased by 6.4% to 7.8 billion rubles.
Recall, the government on behalf of Alexander Lukashenko raised the forecast of growth of Belarusian economy in 2020 from 2.5% to 2.8%. The head of the national Bank of Belarus Pavel Kallaur sure how realistic conservative forecast for GDP growth in 2020 at the level of 1.9%, which the Ministry of Finance laid in the draft budget for the current year.
International financial institutions even more skeptical of the future of the Belarusian economy and predict its growth at 0.5−1%.
Experts of IPM indicate that potential economic growth will decline on average 0.8−1.1 percentage points until 2024 because of permanent shock loss from the tax maneuver in Russia regarding the potential growth of 2% per year in the absence of the tax maneuver. The equilibrium growth rate will be in the next few years 0,9−1,2%.
All predictions were made before the announcement of the coronavirus pandemic, and a record fall in oil prices after the collapse of the deal, OPEC+. Now countries have taken unprecedented strict measures against coronavirus, quarantines announced, closed, international flights, etc. Experts say that the odds of global recession are growing. In January, the IMF predicted that world economic growth will increase by 3.3% in 2020. Due to the effects of coronavirus now see growth at the level below last year’s 2.9 percent last year. The situation remains difficult to predict.
The gross domestic product of Belarus in 2019 increased by 1.2% compared to 2018.
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