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Analyst: Situation in Europe may deteriorate

Аналитик: Ситуация для рубля может ухудшиться

The situation for the Russian currency this week is the “may change”, and “worse”. This opinion was expressed Director of the Academy of management Finance and investment Mr. Dadashov.

“At least the preconditions for this are. First, the tax period, which ended on Friday, leaving the stage, and with it the support of the ruble. Secondly, the oil has difficulty with the further growth that may indicate imminent profit-taking,” the review says the analyst.

Besides, he adds, “the tone of risky assets, including oil prices and the ruble will ask the news from the trade front”, because “optimism about the interim deal” between the United States and China fades.

For his part, financial analyst “BCS Premier” Sergei Dejneka believes that the determining factor “for emerging markets, of course, will be the resolution of the intrigue with the “first phase” trade deals the US and China”. “We look forward to its resolution of 15 December, when should enter into force the new American tariffs on Chinese goods by about $160 billion In our opinion, (the US President) Donald trump obviously has not lost the skills of the showman, which can prepare for the stock markets “Christmas surprise” in the form of a preliminary trade deal with China. Besides the election cycle in the United States in full swing, and the current American leader, it is time to show concrete results on the “shopping front”,” — said the expert.

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In General, says the chief analyst of PSB Bogdan Zvarich, “from a fundamental point of view, given the situation on the energy market and the macroeconomic indicators, the ruble looks a bit overvalued, and the more justified is the range of 65-66 rubles per unit of American currency.”

Recall also that the real effective exchange rate of the ruble (inflation-adjusted) in October 2019 rose 0.5% against foreign currencies relative to the previous month. In this case the real exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar during the reporting period by 1%, Euro by the same amount. For 10 months of the current year the real effective exchange rate of the ruble grew by 6.1%, including the dollar — 4.5% and the Euro by 8.6%.

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