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An exact forecast to 2019 and then

Абсолютно точный прогноз на 2019-й и далее

In Russia it all depends on the elites. And they have to solve two problems: to protect their property and return the location of the West.

The future of Russia to predict extremely simple — if you refuse to look at the date that this perfect day, and the upcoming will be even better than allows you to imagine the most ardent imagination.

In his forecast, I assume a more realistic assessment. Russia is one of the many countries with autocratic rule, in which extremely weak formal horizontal social ties. Therefore, the future depends not on society, but on the will and discontent of the political elite. That is, from the sense of self of the richest people in the country are either built into the system of government, or know how it works.

In other words, when Russia is really Mature change, they are made “from above” and not “from below” — with rare exceptions like the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. The will of the people to any transformations does not, what a funny illustration are Russian neighborhoods abroad, where they live, get rid of the Russian government immigrants. The Russian outside of Russia always so miserable, archaic and provincial that the metropolis on its background even with all its infamies looks progressive.

In General, if someone wants to predict Russia’s future, he should forget about what they want, what fears and what hopes a simple man. Take into account you need only the fears and desires of the ruling class.

Let’s look at all the turning points in the modern history of our country.

Question: what is most wanted item under Stalin? Deliverance from fear of reprisal. Therefore, after the death of Stalin, the reforms resulted in a limitation of the power of the NKVD-MGB-KGB in the rehabilitation of the victims of the Gulag and the condemnation of the cult of personality. These changes have achieved their goal, what evidence of the fate of Khrushchev. Deposed, he not perished in the Lubyanka or the logging, and quietly lived a century in the government dacha.

Next question: what are most afraid of the Soviet elite under Khrushchev? It is also known that Khrushchev’s wildness, combined with the unpredictability of personal self-will when the leader of the country is forcibly introduced corn, then pounded his Shoe at the UN promising to show all the gruel. This deficiency was corrected when, after the overthrow of Khrushchev’s personal rule was replaced by the collegial and the most important decision was to take the Politburo.

We understand also that the was dissatisfied with the elite under Brezhnev: poverty wretchedness of life, the impossibility of any distributor to what possessed a successful Western man — fashion, powerful machine, skiing in the Alps, a beach in the Bahamas, oysters for dinner. And soon after Brezhnev the system embarked on a course of “grow Rich! Privatizing!”

Similarly, the country was changing and then Yeltsin compensated for the indecisiveness of Gorbachev, Putin abolished the rule of bandits and restored the power of the state.

Today, however, it’s clear that Russia is once again at a standstill, that the FSB protect private financial interests that the people are getting poorer. The Russian elite today are incredibly concerned with two things.

1. Its ownership rights are still precarious: a private business can take away any of the Kremlin heavyweight, and loyalty to the Kremlin writ to serve longer. Loyal Minister of economy Ulyukayev last year was imprisoned for 8 years, when, as some believe, he became objectionable the head of “Rosneft” Sechin. This is a significant increase in repression compared to 2014, when he was arrested another Kremlin loyalist, the head of AFK “Sistema” Yevtushenkov he escaped with four months of house arrest plus part of the business, which, they say, with interest looked the same “Rosneft”.

2. After the Crimea the Russian elite of the most respected in the West, people have become toxic. Imagine: you are an exemplary Russian billionaire. Relations with the Kremlin the business you are in Siberia; the family, property and accounts in London. But after Crimea, war in Ukraine, doping scandal, the closure of the American and British consulates, applications in Salisbury of chemical warfare agents and turning the whole world into enemies in Russia you become in the West to shake hands. And can not now enter England at all — as happened with Abramovich. And not the fact that save a property abroad and accounts. And all this is the result of conduct of one man who decided to play war games, unifier of Russian lands and in the Challenger for the world Ordnung. He (o) you want?

These two problems after Putin elite and begin to solve it.

The first thing will be reorganized FSB: will there be staff reductions and budget, partial declassification — though completely the secret police and disappear. It’s a good thing, in the economy (elite) useful.

Major changes await the courts: there are not eliminated complete lustration with the ban on the profession. The establishment of the institution of an independent court — a compromise on which the elite are willing to go all except, perhaps, the head of “Rosneft”, which the meeting with the judicial system, I’m afraid, still waiting.

Relations with the West will change to the opposite. Closed American and British consulates open, will return to Russia the British Council, for citizens of EU, USA, Canada and Australia cancels visas, and political bodies, Sergei Lavrov, and Maria Zakharova will dance step just lazy. Of course, many will begin negotiating a new status of Crimea, which would satisfy both Russia and the West, and Crimea.

And finally, most importantly — will be made a powerful attempt to eliminate in Russia, one-man rule. Most likely, we will transition to a parliamentary Republic. Too dangerous to have at the head of powers with nuclear weapons, a man able to usurp power, a long time ago obrusevshih all feedback with the real world, except those that fit his desires helpful team of sycophants.

Four such changes are guaranteed to await us in the future. Everything else — the growth of welfare, economic growth, the reduction of the state apparatus, reform of healthcare and education, freedom of speech and cultural statements, General upgrading and updating of the country — if it does, then only as a side effect. These things are outside the interests, fears and concerns of the elite, which is treated, and learns not where the “common people”.

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