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A garden city, yet without a garden

Город-сад, пока без сада

How quickly time flies! Know it, a decade has passed. The same decade, which was released himself, the President and the government in 2009-2019 years, forming plans for growth. Very soon, in a few short months, will be the deadline for the implementation of the Concept of socio-economic development of Russia until 2020, the first long-term (12 years) the government action plan, published in March 2008 on the website of the Ministry of economic development. It is necessary to remind, about what speech.

Experts this multi-page document is called the “breakthrough scenario” under which Russia will approve the status of a leading world power. Economic development under the new concept, was supposed to carry out at the expense of innovation. Earlier, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who lost the presidential seat in the Kremlin, Dmitry Medvedev, said that there is no other choice — “have become a great innovative socially-oriented state is not shying from competition and raw material advantages”.

And now it’s time to see what we have become in reality imperceptibly flown by over the years. At the start of those promises to “Russian newspaper”, based on policy statements and plans of the Kremlin, wrote that by 2020 the Russians will be on the average to 2.7 thousand dollars per month, have at least 100 square meters per family of three, and the middle class will account for more than half of the population.

“The conversion will be in three phases — transcribed newspaper those long-term plans. — 2008-2012 — preparation for the breakthrough, 2013-2017 — a breakthrough, in 2018 is expected to begin consolidation”. In particular, the first phase was “to expand the global competitive advantages in traditional spheres — energy, transport, and processing of natural resources”. The second phase of the Ministry is considered as “a breakthrough in increasing the global competitiveness of the economy through its transition to a new technological base” — information, bio – and nanotechnology. In the third stage, from 2017 to 2020, provides for “consolidation of leading positions of Russia in world economy”.

No less encouraging social predictions: “As strategic object of investments becomes a man, the concept assumes high standards of living.

State spending on education and health reach the level of developed countries. Clinics and hospitals will begin to compete for patients medicine priority will be the prevention of… it is Assumed that mortality will be reduced in 1,5-2 times, and the availability of high-tech care will increase from 10-20 to 70-80%”.

By 2020, the easier life lonely pensioners: they will be provided with care through non-profit organizations.

And so on. It’s tempting now to compare those plenty of plans with Khrushchev’s phrase, Oct 1961: “the Current generation of Soviet people will live under communism.” Agree, something similar can be seen.

But then the world economy has shaken the global crisis, many target Concepts were impossible at the start. “Breakthrough” has been postponed until 2012, renaming it the “Strategy-2020”. However, targets are left unchanged: by creating “models of innovative socially oriented development” go out “on the trajectory of long-term sustainable growth at an average rate of about 6.4-6.5% a year” increase of real GDP of 64-66%, around Germany (the fifth economy in the world) in total volume of GDP and real disposable income by the end of 2020 to raise 64-72%.

Not done practically nothing. The average annual growth of economy in 2014-2018 amounted to only 0.5% in 2019-2020 Ministry of economic development forecasts of 1.3% and 1.7%. The contribution of high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries in Russia’s GDP by 2018 fell to 21.3 per cent — instead of growing to 25.6%. To circumvent Germany’s total GDP, according to IMF estimates, it may be, will only be for a year or two (at the expense of oil, gas and production of weapons), but by 2024 Russia will lose its place in the “global five” of Indonesia, which is developing more stable, faster and vysokotehnologichnye.

And links to Western sanctions, which, they say, “strangled the Russian economy,” the authoritative experts seem untenable. “We annually because of the sanctions lost 0.5% of GDP, and from the point of view of potential growth — 0,3%, — says chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. Is not the scale of the problem, which could explain the discrepancy between the desired 6% and the actual 1-2% growth.”

The same number of losses due to sanctions — not more than 0.5% of GDP — refers to the head of the chamber Alexei Kudrin. And if you remember how quickly these years rich Russian billionaires, it becomes clear: our troubles “not in toilets, and in heads”.

About 70% of the income growth is better not to stutter, because even Rosstat, in 2014, shows a continuous negative trend, and in total, in 2012, the incomes of Russians decreased by 5% or more. The average monthly earnings of Russians hovers around 650-700 dollars — almost four times lower than it promised in the Concept. The level of absolute poverty of the population, which amounted in 2007 to 13.4%, decreased over the years to 10.7%, and then increased again to 12.7%: the poverty line now live 18.6 million people. The middle class “shrunk”, according to the Higher school of Economics, up to 38% of the population, according to calculations by Alfa-Bank to 30%. Although most experts believe that all the criteria of the middle class represent only 10.3 million people, or 7% of the population.

But at the same time the volume of cash deposits in Russian banks for the year 2018, increased by 9.5% — the best result for the last five years. However, to call the money (more than 22 trillion rubles), “deposits” do not dare, for two-thirds of Russians currently do not have any savings, and the country is living under the “rich get richer, the poor poorer”.

Was over the years and “individual successes”. According to Rosstat, in 2018, on average, one person had a 25.8 square meters of housing is about 90% of what they promised. But a fair share of “allowances” made up the second apartment of wealthy Russians, rental, and country estates that grew up in recent years around the Russian cities.

High-tech medical care in 2018 in Russia has received 1 million 130 thousand people, while in 2012 it was able to only 451 thousand people. Decreased mortality rate: 14.5 per thousand population in 2008 to 12 in 2017. Although this is, of course, not 1.5-2 times.

But three quarters of Russian physicians surveyed use a mobile app “physician’s Reference”, I believe that because of conducted in the field of optimization has seriously reduced the availability of medical care for the population. More than half of physicians and nurses claim that because of the growth of their professional obligations, the quality of their work deteriorated. Even the government’s curator of health Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova, has acknowledged: the optimisation processes carried out successfully. The first Vice-Premier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said about the terrible state of medical institutions.

That is elite medicine has become better — is worse. The reason is obvious: in the very Concept promised to increase budget spending on health to 5% of GDP, but today they amount to 2.9% of GDP, and will remain so over the next three years. “We are at a level lower than it was 11 years ago,” says the predecessor Siluanov, former Finance Minister, now head of the SP Alexei Kudrin.

For comparison: in the UK health care funding is 7.1% of GDP in the U.S. was 10.1% of GDP, in France — 8% of GDP. And because of socialized medicine there high quality for all.

Not a better education funding instead of the promised increase in expenditure to 5% of GDP it stood at around 3.7% of GDP. The result: another year and a half ago, President Vladimir Putin has set the task to 2024 to bring Russia into the top ten countries for quality of education is naturally not performed. And last week, the head of state warned that by 2030, the shortage of qualified personnel in Russia may reach 3 million people. That will result in the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars in the economy. This turns the “savings”…

Come to mind the lines of Vladimir Mayakovsky on the Case, written by the poet in 1929: “In four years there will be a garden city”. The prophecy of the poet was fulfilled half. During the construction of the steel mill grew the town of Novokuznetsk, it is now the 31st largest in Russia. But the garden is not in sight. Over the past year are eight times were recorded 30-fold excess of MPC of benzopyrene, and, according to the Ministry of natural resources, Novokuznetsk fall in the number of cities with the most polluted atmosphere. And occupational diseases of the working population here is 7 times higher than the national average, and family members — in 4.5 times. What really is sad…

Instead of an epilogue

Russia is often compared to Chile. There are pensioners there are 200-300 dollars a month, and even working 5% of the population live as poorly as the poorest 5% of the population of Mongolia. And the standard of living of the richest 2% of Chileans conforms to the standard of living of the richest 2% in Germany. The result: today it is one of the most turbulent in social terms the world.

We still more or less quiet. But the proportion of people advocating for drastic changes, has grown in the last two years from 42 to 59% — according to data of joint research of the Carnegie Moscow center and the Levada Center. And among those who do not want change, Russians were more likely to call officials and bureaucracy — 69%.

© 2019, paradox. All rights reserved.

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