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70 per dollar in October: put the ruble in a puddle

70 за доллар: Октябрь посадит рубль в лужу

The dollar resumed its growth and on Monday, September 30, crept close to the mark of 65 rubles per unit of American currency. But on 16 September the “wood” came up to 63.5 and, it seemed, was ready to take a new psychological level.

However, such “swing” for the ruble is difficult to name something new. At the beginning of the year, the dollar almost reached 70. And the reason for such jumps, as a rule, in external factors such as tensions in the global markets, oil prices and, to a lesser extent, in the sanctions pressure.

In General we can say that September, the ruble did. However, for October, economists less optimistic forecasts. So, a team of analysts FxPro recalled, “SP”, in the second month of autumn the ruble traditionally declines.

“The sequence of higher lows of course which is a sure sign of an upward trend. On average, the ruble over the past 20 years, losing in October by 3.3% against the dollar. Adding in secondary historical importance, the pair USD/RUB may be in October near 66,50. EUR/RUB may well aim for levels in the range of 73-74, where it began to decrease in the first days of September” — analysts say.

They do not exclude that the fall can be more severe if the situation on the world market escalated, investors will begin to withdraw from risky assets to safer currencies.

Many experts give conservative predictions of the dollar and the Euro in autumn, so as, on the one hand, I see no growth drivers for the ruble, on the other hand, consider the implementation of a risk is unlikely.

However, as told to “SP” analyst FG “Kalita-Finans” Dmitry Golubovsky, now the market situation is so unstable that the “wood” can rise or fall to the lows of the year began. This will depend mostly on external factors, but domestic policies can contribute to the weakening of the national currency.

— Never before in recent years, exchange rates were not so politicized, so to make predictions in such a situation is very difficult.

By itself, the ruble exchange rate is determined by several things. First, the global demand for risk — people tend to either accept the risk or flee from it. When they take risks, the ruble is growing, as the entire Russian market. We have peripheral emerging market, which is characterized by high yield. Money come in the form of short-term investments to obtain returns and quickly pop out. Hence, high enough volatility of the ruble, which visibly jump. If you look at the amplitude of the fluctuations of our currency, in the beginning of the year it cost in the region of 69 per dollar, and more recently — about 63.

To predict what is going to be difficult. On the one hand, we have a political scandal in Washington — a new case against trump. It will have a negative impact on the dollar against other major currencies in the Forex market — the Euro, the yen. But it can adversely affect our money into a currency. Therefore, even if the dollar will weaken, not the fact that the ruble is that you will win.

The second factor influencing our currency policy of Central banks. In principle it is now for the ruble positive. Again, the ECB launched quantitative easing and printing money, the fed lowers the rate. The money in the world economy becomes more risky assets is good.

The problem is that if money will be more, but political tensions remain high, these injections of the Central banks will not help. The money will not go in development, but will be accumulated within those industries where they are produced, for example, lie on the deposits. And then, before us these concessions, and the funds will not come. If you enter a positive political news, then it will have a positive effect on the ruble.

Another huge factor — trade negotiations between the US and China. If countries agree among themselves skyrocketed optimism in the world, oil and other raw materials will rise, which is good for us. If the talks fail, we expect a global recession in the next year. The oil collapse and the ruble will be bad.

These are the main factors of influence, but in what combination they come together, hard to say. For example, the negotiations might fall through, the commodity market will crash, but at the same time, there will be another attack on Saudi Arabia, and that oil can go up. It’s hard to say how it will react to the ruble. High oil is good, but the flight from risk is bad.

“SP”: — But still, what about the range of the ruble can say in the second half of the autumn?

The range, which will be the ruble in such an unpredictable environment, is very broad. He is between 62 and 69 per dollar, and may take as to the top and bottom. With this in mind, I can advise to be in a comfortable situation for themselves. If you only have rubles, you need to buy the currency were to go into the devaluation of the ruble, if it starts. Part of the savings will be saved, and the remainder you can sell.

If, on the contrary, happens influx of optimism, and the ruble will strengthen, too well. You will be able to sell it and buy more dollars.

If you have only a dollar absolute position, there is a certain risk. It may be a situation when you grow up only risky assets. Although if you consider the profit and capital in dollars, you will not lose anything. Here works a simple principle — no one went bankrupt, sitting in the cache.

Simply put, if you don’t have currency, buy, then sell on for profit. If not will buy again to sell when he strengthened on 63. This is true if you are an active trader. But if a simple man, then you currency diversification of assets generally must be an alphabet. No need to put all your eggs in one basket.

By the way, such instability does not mean that the exchange has no opportunity to earn money. Carry trade remains attractive. You can also buy OFZ bonds or shares of Russian companies at high yield. The purchase of shares in Russian oil company at a fraction of the portfolio is a good bet in the case of escalation in the middle East. Because the main beneficiary of the war with Iran will be Russia as she was the main beneficiary of the war with Iraq.

“SP”: — because of rising oil prices?

— Remember the beginning of zero, when it went up, because in the middle East all fell apart. Iraq was removed from the market, and Russia was the most reliable and secure supplier of energy to Europe. Now this history may repeat itself.

The situation in the markets is generally very similar to the beginning of zero. All waiting for a remake of the 2008 crisis, but it may be a repetition of zero, when burst the American market, and the rest went up. The fact that everyone is waiting for a new crisis, says that next year it most likely will not. People run ahead of the engine.

“SP”: — That is the crisis and the fall of the ruble is not to wait?

— The world situation is unpredictable. The history has been such that one US President tried to bring impeachment on two different occasions. First on the Russian business, but he was able to get out of this situation, and now Ukrainian. Trump has surpassed its predecessors, and this is no joke.

But without impeachment, as a trump shakes the markets, makes the work quite complicated. Although to his credit, capitalization and the U.S. market has increased. Those measures which he undertook, from the point of view of capitalization is positive for the us economy. No matter how it is criticized for the fact that he created a large amount of risks on a global scale.

See what Buda on. I hope that in the election campaign trump will not take steps that will lead to stock collapse. Rather, it will be concluded a limited agreement with China. Against Iran unlikely to start military operation. While the concentration of American forces in the region is not very big, not that during the war with Iraq.

Yet more fears than reality. If they pass, the market will set cautious optimism, and it will support the ruble. So I don’t expect him to hit the 67-68 area in August. Rather, he will remain at the current level.

If I had to predict, I think that all factors, we at the end of the year will stay about the same place where is now level 65-66 per dollar. But these numbers can fluctuate quite strongly.

“SP”: — what about the Euro?

With the Euro still quite difficult. It is unclear how Britain will leave the EU. If the consequences will be severe, the Euro may still have a little SAG. On the other hand, the fed is likely to cut rate and the ECB to lower the rate nowhere else. So I think that at the end of the year, the dollar and the Euro will retain the existing parity or the Euro slightly lose. In this regard, I would advise you to buy dollars and euros in equal shares.

However, the downside is that the Euro banks do not pay interest. But you can just leave them lying on the brokerage account, at least, for this money do not take.

“SP”: — You say about the external factors and internal policy might affect the exchange rate?

— Internal factors are related to the fact that I can start to spend big money to national projects. As you know, we raised taxes, increased the retirement age, and all this supposedly in order to accumulate some money and run the economy. The idea is stupid, because to take money from the economy, then to give her the same arm of the state, is fundamentally wrong. Money from this will be no more, and the efficiency will drop because you have created an unnecessary bureaucratic link.

However, if this money is taken and not given at all, and yet it happened that way, we have a huge budget surplus, from which nothing comes, it would be even worse.

Although if the government begins to spend money, it is also unlikely to lead to something sensible. Appears inefficient infrastructure projects, mega-construction projects and useless programs to support the business, but the money, ultimately, will not create anything new and useful, and will simply dissolve and then settles.

From this, the country can begin growth in property prices and the stock market, and may accelerate inflation, which is now in a depressed state. Yes, it may be a purely accounting a revival in economic growth. But for the ruble this would be bad because real rates will fall from rising inflation, the carry trade, which now supports our currency will become less effective.

So if will increase budget expenditures, the ruble will weaken. By the end of the year he will go to 67 to the dollar and could go further. But the policy of the government of Russia is a little predictable, so it’s hard to say if this will play a factor until the end of autumn or not.

Deputy Director of financial markets Department of the Bank “Solidarity” the novel Rodin also believes that to accurately predict the dollar for several months in the current conditions is impossible. However, more likely is the tendency for the weakening of the ruble.

— Influence on the ruble will traditionally provide the dynamics of oil prices, as well as the results of the meeting of the Central Bank, which will take place on 25 October and which will consider the issue of further reduction of the key rate. As the line of the Central Bank aimed at easing monetary policy, there is reason to believe that we will be lowering rates this year, resulting in the ruble will weaken, and the demand for currency will continue.

The unstable situation in the middle East associated with the disruption of oil supplies to the world market can support the price of oil, which in the short term may strengthen the ruble, but it is unlikely such support will be long term.

Accurate prediction is difficult to give — too many factors can influence the change of the national currency. In General, the weakening of the ruble seems logical to date, although, in practice, the actions of the regulator and possible macroeconomic events in the global markets may change the situation for a short period of time in the opposite direction.

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